Political Insider

No erosion of his support does not mean he is doing well in Pennsylvania.

Chuck Todd is right on this one, we need to wait and see what happens. To claim that he's "weathering the controversy" is ridiculously early to declare.

With one exception, I believe the conclusions reached by Mr. Goddard a premature.

First, with regard to the "controversial" ARG poll, one needs to bear in mind that this is the LATEST of the three surveys, conducted on Friday the 11th through Sunday the 13th. If there had been a trend, either for or against Obama as a result of the "bitter" flap it's most likely to show up in this survey as opposed to the other two. And lo and behold, that is exactly the case.

Quinnipiac was conducted over a must longer period of time, the 9th through 13th. The story was not known to most people until it hit the evening network newscasts Saturday night, still the plurality choice for news among Americans, which means that the lion's share of any reaction would not have shown up until the 13th, which constitutes an insignificant one-fifth of Quinnipiac's total sample. Yes, I know Q claims the 12th and 13th did not show a significant difference but note they do not give figures or margins of error for those two days, so for now those unsupported speculations don't persuade me.

Finally, with regard to the Susquehanna survey, their Undecided figure is significantly larger than those of the other surveys, 18%. This would appear to suggest that they did not include leaners in their survey, which means that comparing this survey to the other two is like comparing apples and pears.

With regard to national polls Mr. Goddard is on very firm ground. Both the Gallup and Rasmussen surveys were conducted in periods of time comfortably after the flap started, and conclusions drawn from their results are fairly sound.

As for the third point, risky ads are as risky ads do. It just started running yesterday, which means we will have no notion at all of its effect until at least Wednesday, when we will receive the first results from a complete 24-hour period since it started to run.

And before anyone starts jumping to conclusions, a reminder that I am an Obama supporter and I hope fervently that Mr. Goddard's premature conclusions prove true. But it is simply too early for my fellow Obama-ites to be popping champagne corks yet.

Taegan never said that Obama IS weathering the controversy, he said there are SIGNS that he's doing so. I know that the Internet tends to annihilate subtleties of thought, but I think Taegan deserves the benefit of the doubt here.

I think Criggs makes a good point -- that nationally, this doesn't appear to be a major issue while it probably is too early to tell in PA. Obama was lucky that the controversy hit over the weekend when only political obsessives like ourselves were paying attention. And there could be a backlash from Hillary's attacks on Obama ... she seems to be doing the Republicans work for them and Democrats do not like that. But again, all of us are speculating at this point.

what the hell has antonx2 been smoking? He better take a long and hard breath before he cites more of this nonsense.

the energy on the streets of Philadelphia are so strong for Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton has become the butt of jokes and her negatives are about off the charts.

well, antonx2 can you explain the two latest polls from LA Times and ABC/Washington Post that posted this evening.

quoting a poll that does robo calls really hight lights your ignorance. Barack Obama is flush with cash, and Obama's army of soldiers is on the move in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina and we have Annie Oakley Clinton in our gunsights