Political Insider

Remember that the current magic number, 2024, only applies so long as Florida and Michigan delegates are not seated. If both get seated, it goes up to 2208, if MI is seated but FL seated as half vote each, the number is 2155.

When Senator Obama wins the Dem nomination, he should select Blanche Lincoln as his runningmate because she is a Southern moderate white female who can win Arkansas for the Democrats. She'll help with Southern women and older women that support Senator Clinton strongly. So between huge African-American turnout, new voters, and white women, Obama will be able to compete in the South. Plus, Gov. Sebelius of Kansas and Governor Napolitano of Arizona are in states to red to win and McCain should win Arizona.

How effective is Blanche Lincoln as a senator? (not that effectiveness has been a measure in the past i.e. Dan Quayle.) Does she have enough attractiveness as a candidate to have coattail effect? Wouldn't Richardson provide a bigger boost to Obama as v.p.? You're right, I think re: lack of rationale for nominating Sibelius or Napolitano.

Obama's already signaled that he's not looking for someone with foreign policy experience for VP ... but he is looking for someone who rounds out his skill set. I think he means that he wants a VP who is going to act like a Chief Operating Officer and manage the bureaucracy while he sticks to strategic issues. That hints to me that he wants a governor or someone else experienced at managing a large bureaucracy.

I'd put my money on a governor (or former governor) from a purple state, and probably someone who's endorsed him. Tom Kaine and Bill Richardson seem like the frontrunners to me, governors of key states, Kaine one of his earliest endorsers, Richardson one of his most important.

Obama's already signaled that he's not looking for someone with foreign policy experience for VP ... but he is looking for someone who rounds out his skill set. I think he means that he wants a VP who is going to act like a Chief Operating Officer and manage the bureaucracy while he sticks to strategic issues. That hints to me that he wants a governor or someone else experienced at managing a large bureaucracy.

I'd put my money on a governor (or former governor) from a purple state, and probably someone who's endorsed him. Tim Kaine and Bill Richardson seem like the frontrunners to me, governors of key states, Kaine one of his earliest endorsers, Richardson one of his most important.

Think basketball. If you're 12 points down with 20 minutes to play, it looks doable. If you get two points closer that's good, but not if you take 10 minutes to do it. Then you need to make up 10 points in 10 minutes, and it's a lot harder.

The quoted reader is looking at all delegates.

Look at pledged, and it's worse.

Today, with 409 still available, she would need 292 to win. That's 71%. She isn't going to average 71% over the remaining races. It just isn't going to happen.

After May 6, with 217 still available, she's likely to still need 203. That's 93%, and especially clearly not going to happen.

When superdelegates are sure who will win pledged, they will tumble like dominoes. If they look at the numbers, they can be sure now. If they're avoiding the math, they will be sure after May 6.

We know how it ends. We know now.

"Remember that the current magic number, 2024, only applies so long as Florida and Michigan delegates are not seated. If both get seated, it goes up to 2208, if MI is seated but FL seated as half vote each, the number is 2155."

The hard truth is this: These states will not be seated if by doing so they will hand Clinton the nomination. Obama and DNC leaders will control the Credentials Committee and will block any scenario that makes FL or MI a determining factor in the nomination. My guess is that they will be seated only if their delegations are divided equally, or in a way that will not change the results of the democratic primaries and popular vote. The exact number of delegates certified for the convention really won't make any difference in this regard.

"the chances of a Clinton victory are actually lower than ever."

LET'S PRAY SO BECAUSE SHE WOULD AN UNMITIGATED DISASTER FOR THE COUNTRY!!!!!!

"My guess is that they will be seated only if their delegations are divided equally, or in a way that will not change the results of the democratic primaries and popular vote."

Agreed, Lars, so long as those two things remain true (primaries and pop vote are same candidate). I think there is very, very little chance she peels away enough delegates in any manner to win at this point. My guess at this point would be split MI evenly and award half seats per vote results in FL.

sometimes i wonder if, in feb. 2009, a couple of weeks after clinton is inaugurated, if the damn pundits will still be insisting that she "can't win."

Like school thugs on the playground or a neighborhood Street Gang, the Clintons think that by bullying and hurling insults, they will taunt Barack into another trap -- debate! Why should Barack engage in a barroom-brawl like debate to make himself look less Presidential? Besides Douglass and Lincoln were gentlemen with ethics and morals -- something sorely lacking in the Clintons!

The questions that would be asked of Barack as President are not the same kind of personal attacks he would get at another debate, he is wise to decline! And, by continuing to say NO, he is showing that he is not going to be Bullied into debating for another show based on sensationalism rather than real issues and problems facing the American people today, and we really do have a myriad of problems to solve, and which must be solved! And, because Barack was Wise enough and is wise enough to point out how unfair and uneven the questions were directed at him at the last debate, they label him a "whiner" instead of someone who, and rightly so, is defending himself from a "hit job". But, if he does this, this might expose the ones who are directing the barbs and hits and their Purpose, so they distort the truth (he's whining) with a multitude of voices, all saying the same thing to give it power (brainwashing)!

Most of the corporate media: cable news, ABC, NBC :are owned and Republican controled. They tell us what they want us to Hear, not what we need to Know to truly inform us as a society, which would "expose{ their deeds, give us power and aid in their demise!

The Clintons and the Republican Spin Machine are all aligned against Barack! Both are fabricators, distorters, engage in fear and smear... there is no truth from either of the Giants only domination for their own selfish gain and not for the good of "all ... they have even colloborated together for greater strength, then one will overthrow the other if they get what they want!

Then they belittle Barack's achievement in Pennsylvania -- to close the enormous gap between him and Clintons was a monumental success and not given any credit by the Republican talking-points media. Instead they ask, "do we really know who Barack is?" -- They slyly ask, "why can't he close the deal?" This after showing him bowling over and over again and stating how he cannot relate to blue-collar workers with such a low bowling score or showing skits from Saturday Night Light which casts him a poor light, along with continuing whipping of Rev. Wrght and his comments on bitter. They do not report the news anymore, they do not inform us of the true conditions in Iraq or other pertinent news but rather pass on Gossip, fit for the Enquirer Magazine or Entertainment Tonight, so far we have fallen!

And to Maureen Dowd -- It is always "Darkest before the Dawn!"

What horse hockey!!!!!!!!!!
What are you people going to do with your vituperitive history if Clinton's selected as the candidate?
Additionally, Superdelegates are specifically restrained in their voting to not follow the whims of the voter on the street or popular opinion. They are charged with the responsibility to be politically functional. We wish to avoid the embarassment of another McGovern, Carter or Dukakis.
There is no animus associated with this illumination. All three of these guys were rebound candidates and the outcome with all three was horrendous. Goody-two-shoes doesn't belong in the White House. If we put G-T-S there it will be another 1 term mess with a Jimmy Carter look-a-like getting the boot in 4 years.
This is a political job PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!! Failing to capitalize and exploit that reality cost Carter dearly.
So ... suck it up; get a life; and accept that we must be rough, nasty and capitalize on the Republlicans weaknesses. And then grind them into the ground the way they've been treating us since Ronald Reagan, day-1, or the last 28 years.