Clinton's Path to Victory is Through the Smoke-Filled Room

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Based on the delegate math and a reasonable forecast of the remaining primary races, it's highly unlikely Sen. Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic presidential nomination. But it's still possible -- if she can send the decision into what used to be called the "smoke-filled room."

Ultimately it will be superdelegates that decide the nomination. These are the 719 unpledged delegates -- not including the 76 add-ons -- that make up approximately 20% of the delegates at the convention. They are the closest thing Democrats have to "party elders" who can safely pick the most electable nominee. And they will make their decision based on old-fashioned back room politicking.

But Clinton needs to change the campaign narrative to have them break her way. Here's what she needs to do:

  • Win Ohio and Texas by decisive margins tonight and follow up those wins with another big win in Pennsylvania on April 22.
  • Continue to raise doubts about Sen. Barack Obama's electability in a general election contest against Sen. John McCain.
  • Convince the DNC to seat Florida and Michigan delegates without necessarily holding new contests.
  • Hope the media finds a scandal that will take Obama down as quickly as he rose up.
It's a tall order, but until she's mathematically eliminated from the race, it's hard to see her dropping out.

    Comments

  1. 1) She's not going to win in Ohio and Texas decisively. 2) Raising doubts about Obama's electabilitiy will only help John McCain if Obama becomes the nominee -- via a negative protracted struggle, Obama is going to start questioning her electability vigerously which would also hurt her and this campaign is going to get really nasty. 3) Florida & Michigan will not be seated as is without spliting the Democratic party in half. A "do-over" could be arranged for Florida, but seating Michigan is out of the question without major political consequences. It would mean changing party rules in the middle of the game to favor one candidate over another and smack of injustice. 4) Lastly, Obama's short record is an advantage when it comes to digging up dirt. He has a lot less to public service to examine for hints of scandal. It's the upside of his "inexperience." And she'll need more than some "NAFTA" flap.

    Clinton might win the nomination given your prescription -- but the price might also be a loss in November. Let's hope if she wins, she can do it without backroom politicing. Otherwise, let's hope Obama can create some distance today.

    Posted by: Lars Author Profile Page | March 4, 2008 1:50 PM

  2. Seems pretty obvious that she is not going to win Texas (if at all) decisively, nor Ohio. I think that DNC officials are going to seat both Florida and Michigan, but only when it is obvious that there is a clear winner. "Do overs" are just asking for trouble.
    As for an Obama scandal, there is a potential one brewing here in Illinois with his Rezco land deal. It smacks of typical insider politics. His name came up in the just unsealed indictment of Rezco.

    Posted by: Barry915 Author Profile Page | March 4, 2008 4:10 PM

  3. The Rezco land deal might be a potential Obama scandal -- except that reporters have been digging into it for at least two years -- and so far nothing very substantial aside from guilt by association. Rezco is on trial now which reminds everyone of the Obama connection, but Obama is not directly involving in any of the charges -- though he may be called to testify.

    Clinton needs something bigger than this to sink Obama at this late date in the process.... unless somehow she can really make the mud stick.

    Posted by: Lars Author Profile Page | March 4, 2008 6:11 PM

  4. To the contrary, all Hillary has to do to get the nomination is insure that there is a second ballot at the convention. I find it quite interesting how no one mentions the opposite to the "hillary cant get enough votes to win the nomination" which is "obama cant get enough votes to win the nomination." Why isnt there the clamour for Obama to step aside for the good of the party.

    Maybe the media should fulfill their obligation of informing the public that when is all said and done the nomination for the Democratic Party could quite possibly be someone other than Obama or Hillary.

    Posted by: spider_redeaux Author Profile Page | March 4, 2008 11:30 PM

  5. The best she can do is drink from a poisoned chalice or give one to Obama. At this time supporting Hillary is effectively supporting McCain and 100 years of war.

    Posted by: wren Author Profile Page | March 5, 2008 8:57 AM

  6. The best thing for the country[IMO] is for "The Monster" to steal the nomination from BHO. If one is to be the next prez then at least with Clinton we know what we're getting-a grouchy menopausal b*tch that won't pee without taking a poll. Besides, the blogosphere will do to her what the MSM and our patriotic dems have done to Bush for 7 years.

    Posted by: malcum Author Profile Page | March 9, 2008 4:18 PM

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