Expectations setting are a normal part of political campaigns, but the latest memo from Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign suggests that unless Sen. Barack Obama wins all four races next Tuesday -- Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont -- he loses.
The memo says that an Obama loss in any one of the states would mean Democrats "are
having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer." It doesn't mention that she's already lost 11 states in a row.
Now that's spin.
When Texans vote next Tuesday, we could have a result fitting of this already strange campaign season: Both Democratic candidates could declare victory.
The reason: No delegates are awarded for winning the Texas popular vote. All 127 delegates at stake are allocated by state senate district proportionally. Further complicating the math is that each of the 31 senate districts gets a different number of delegates based on the
Democratic vote in the 2006 governor's race and the 2004 presidential
race. This will make it very
difficult for the television networks to predict the correlation between popular vote and
delegates. They may actually need to wait for the actual votes to come in.
While recent polls show the race very close, the ultimate winner of the popular vote could actually come away with fewer
delegates.
It all depends on who wins what district.