2008 Presidential Election: May 2008 Archives

And In This Corner...

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Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) and former Rep. David Bonior (D-MI) will represent Sen. Barack Obama at tomorrow's meeting of the DNC Rules Committee.

Former Michigan Gov. James Blanchard (D) and Florida state Sen. Arthenia Joyner (D) will present Sen. Hillary Clinton's case.

The meeting starts at 9:30 am ET with an introduction by DNC chairman Howard Dean. He will then pass the baton to Rules committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt.

Previewing Saturday's DNC Rules Committee Meeting

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The Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee will meet on Saturday to decide the fate of challenges to the party's decision to penalize Florida and Michigan for moving up their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday and violating party rules.

Here's some "pre-game" analysis:

  1. While the room will be packed with lawyers, everyone should realize the decision will be less about actual rules than the politics and perceptions of the Democratic primary process. There is no way the DNC will let a rules committee decide the victor of the nomination.
  2. Don't expect many fireworks. The Obama campaign is urging its supporters to stay quiet and protests by Clinton supporters could backfire and cause the committee to reject the challenges entirely.
  3. The most likely outcome is that the rules committee will reinstate 50% of the Florida and Michigan delegates. According to a memo, party lawyers don't believe they have the authority to do any more than that.
  4. The twist, as First Read notes, are the "uncommitted" delegates from Michigan's primary. "If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama."
  5. Although she will probably have succeeded in changing the "magic number" for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton will still likely be disappointed by the committee's decision. The math doesn't work for her now and won't work for her after Saturday either.
  6. Political junkies will be dissapointed because, despite the hype, the decision will not materially influence who will win the Democratic nomination.

Giving Back

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Sen. Barack Obama gave an excellent speech at Wesleyan University of the weekend. He quoted an older man who was asked why he signed up for the Peace Corps in 1961, and he said "Because it was the first time anyone asked me to do anything for my country." Then he told the graduates, "If I become president, I'll be asking you to do something for your country every day."

Ever since John F. Kennedy gave his famous "Ask Not" speech at his 1961 inauguration, many Americans have waited for a president who once again called the country to service.

Bill Clinton tried. During his campaign and at the 1992 Democratic convention, he used the slogan "New Covenant" to describe his efforts to forge "a solemn agreement between the people and their government." As president he promised to create more opportunities for people, but noted they would have an obligation to give something back to society in return for receiving it's benefits. Unfortunately, pollsters found it wasn't a very popular message and it was mostly dropped after he took office.

President Bush took another approach in 2001 after terrorists attacked New York and Washington. When many looked for a way to help the country they loved, Bush suggested the best thing they could do was to go shopping or go out to dinner.

In contrast, Obama's rhetoric is extremely refreshing. It's generates enormous excitement. The challenge for him over the next six months will be to convince Americans they will actually be called to service.

Update: James Fallows and Matthew Yglesias also liked the speech.

Get Ready for a Rough Campaign

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Anyone lulled into thinking the general election will be a polite and friendly race obviously hasn't been listening to Sen. John McCain or Sen. Barack Obama lately.

At an airport rally in California yesterday, the New York Times notes McCain mocked Obama as a "young man" with "very little experience." He went on: "For his very, very great lack of experience and knowledge of the issues, he's been very successful."

Of course, as CNN notes, Obama also referred to McCain's age a few weeks ago suggesting the Republican was "losing his bearings" for suggesting a terrorist group actually supported Obama's candidacy.

Now, NBC News suggests the rivalry is getting personal. "Speaking of McCain, he's clearly is not a fan of Obama... Has Obama gotten under McCain's skin? McCain has reserved some of his most sarcastic barbs for the Illinois senator. Forget the shots he enjoyed taking at Romney during the primary; that was beanbag. His disdain for Obama is crystal clear every day on the trail."

Obama Says He's Close to Clinching Nomination

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A memo released this afternoon by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign asserts the Illinois Senator is just 62 delegates away from securing the Democratic presidential nomination.

Would Obama Choose Clinton as His Running Mate?

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With the Democratic presidential nomination all but decided, the focus will soon turn to who Sen. Barack Obama will choose as his running mate. Exit polls suggest most Democratic voters want Obama to choose Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. And earlier this month, Obama told Reuters he would be open to picking her.

However, many analysts are divided on whether they think she would want the job. They're also split on whether an Obama-Clinton ticket is the best way to win in November.

Here's the early buzz:

New York Times: "Clinton aides insisted that Mrs. Clinton was not thinking too seriously about positioning herself as Mr. Obama's running mate. They say she knows, from her husband's experience, that a decision about a running mate involves many factors."

Marc Ambinder: "Though she has banned her staff from speculating about the vice presidency, people close to her -- people who know her -- believe that she would want to be asked to serve and would want to serve, if the situation presented itself."

The Hill: "Sen. Barack Obama's allies in Congress do not want Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate, even though many Clinton supporters are pushing the 'dream ticket.'"

Bob Beckel: "Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not."

Fred Barnes: "The last person Barack Obama wants as his vice presidential running mate is Hillary Clinton. But could she, with key assistance from her husband, former President Bill Clinton, force her way onto an Obama ticket? The answer: don't bet on it."

Dick Morris: "It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. It would not help him get elected, it would drag all the Clinton controversies into the general election, and having her down the hall in the West Wing would be a recipe for disaster, dissension and civil war. Other than that, it's a hell of an idea!"

Davis Predicts Big Losses for Republicans

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If you don't think House Republicans have a tough road this fall, you're not listening to Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) who is sounding the alarm bells. Yesterday, he sent an extensive memo to Republican leaders outlining the problem as he sees it. 

Today, he was brutally blunt in an interview on Bloomberg TV's Political Capital with Al Hunt. He predicted a loss of 20-25 Republican seats if the election were held today and said Sen. John McCain would lose the presidential election if he was perceived as leading a third Bush term.

Excerpts of the transcript follow.

The Case for Edwards as Obama's Running Mate

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Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the presidential race in late January, pundits have wondered (in this order): Who will he endorse for president? When will he make an endorsement? Why hasn't he made an endorsement?

Interestingly, by not choosing between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton in their tough primary battle until the nomination was all but decided, Edwards stands as a potential healer of the Democratic party. And by remaining neutral in the race for so long, he's also best positioned to be Sen. Barack Obama's running mate.

Here's the case for picking Edwards:

  1. He's already been tested on the national stage and not likely to cause a distracting scandal.
  2. He appeals to the same working class white voters that back Clinton. 
  3. He favors Obama's new brand of politics.
  4. He could put North Carolina and possibly other Southern states in play.
  5. Clinton would probably support him. With more than 1,700 delegates in Clinton's pocket, Obama needs to at least get her tacit approval if he wants to have a unified party.

Will Barr Put Georgia in Play?

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With former Republican Rep. Bob Barr's announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.

Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.

The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election.

One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain.

Looking Ahead to the Remaining Primaries

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With Sen. Hillary Clinton vowing to stay in the presidential race at least until next month, it makes sense to briefly handicap the remaining six contests.

In next week's West Virginia primary, on May 13, Sen. Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite given the state's friendly demographics. In fact, recent polls show her nearly 30 points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama.

On May 20, the campaign heads to Oregon, which leans towards Obama. Recent polls have him winning leading by a comfortable 8 to 12 point margin. Also voting on the same day is Kentucky, which should be Clinton territory by a large double-digit margin.

Puerto Rico votes on June 1 and may have the highest turnout of the remaining primaries. Despite the lack of public polling, most analysts pick Clinton as the favorite.

The Democratic primary season finally comes to an end two days later on June 3 when South Dakota and Montana get their turn. Both states lean in Obama's direction.

What Does Hillary Want?

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Despite most analysts declaring the Democratic presidential race "basically over," Sen. Barack Obama moves into a very uncomfortable phase of his campaign. He's essentially locked up the nomination but his main rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, is still in the race.

It reminds me of 1984 and 1988 when Jesse Jackson kept his White House bids alive all the way until the Democratic conventions. The question everyone asked all summer long was, "What does Jesse want?" He couldn't win, but he held enough power to be a voice at the table.

So, what does Hillary want? Here are a few things that Obama could offer to help ease her out of the race.

  1. Help retiring her debt. Clinton loaned her campaign nearly $12 million since February and she'll want Obama's help in paying that back and taking care of any other unpaid bills.
  2. A major policy win. Just as John Edwards got both Clinton and Obama to make ending poverty part of their campaigns, Clinton needs to show supporters she's had a substantive impact. Having her health care plan as part of the Democratic platform would appeal to her supporters -- and those of Edwards as well.
  3. Input on the vice presidential selection. While Clinton might not want to be vice president, she has enough clout to make Obama pick someone who is loyal to her. That means someone like Sen. Evan Bayh or Gen. Wesley Clark could get the nod. It also means it won't be Bill Richardson.
Let the negotiations begin.

Editor's Note: This piece was inspired by discussions with several people, including Dan Conley who is also writing a piece on the topic for Salon.com.

Moving the Goal Posts (Again)

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Believe it or not, the Democratic presidential race is slowly coming to the end. The only problem is the two campaigns don't agree on the finish line.

After today's primaries, NBC News projects that there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) than there are to win in the final six contests (217) through June 3. "Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues."

Despite the proportional allocation of delegates, most analysts estimate that Sen. Barack Obama will add to his delegate count tonight. He's also been the beneficiary of many more superdelegates endorsements over the last month than his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Here are the latest delegate counts from the Associated Press and the networks:

AP: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,608
CNN: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,602
ABC: Obama 1,748, Clinton 1,604
NBC: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,611
CBS: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,603

According to DNC rules, the winner needs 2025 delegates. However, as Obama closes in on that magic number, the Washington Times notes Clinton's campaign is trying to "move the goal posts" once more. The Clinton campaign now says the number needed to win is 2,208, which includes the disputed delegates.

Said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin: "That's what we believe is the standard for deciding this -- who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination"

Expectations in Indiana

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Presidential politics is often more about beating expectations than beating your opponent. It's through this lens that the results of Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana must be viewed.

Based on the demographics, North Carolina should be a win for Sen. Barack Obama by a relatively large margin. However, if Sen. Hillary Clinton closes the gap to just a few points, it will be seen as a victory for her. If she manages to win the state, Obama's campaign could be mortally-wounded in the eyes of many superdelegates.

Indiana should be a closer race, though most polls give Sen. Hillary Clinton the edge. If she wins by any margin close to double-digits it will be seen as a big victory. However, if Obama pulls out the victory it could be the end of her campaign.

Of course, smaller wins for each candidate in their favored state would just mean that the race will continue. And recent polls suggest it's probably the most likely outcome.