Recently in 2008 Presidential Election Category
From: Bill McInturff
Subject: Reading the Exit Polls
Date: November 3, 2008
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
"Dear Bill,
I very much enjoyed your spirited note on the state of the race and Barack Obama's 'ballot position.' It reminds me how much I miss our times working together on the bipartisan polls for NPR and for many of our corporate clients. I miss in particular the banter before those meetings when your Republican colleagues fretted over their teenage children going off to Obama rallies."
Read the whole letter.
TO: McCain Strategy Team
FROM: Bill McInturff, Lead Pollster, McCain-Palin 2008; Partner, Public Opinion Strategies
RE: State of the Race and Ballot Position
DATE: October 28, 2008
First, let's be clear: This is a hard election to "predict."
The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years.
The entire memo from the Obama campaign is below:
As the New York Times reports, the man in question "may run a plumbing business but he is not a licensed plumber. His full name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher. And he owes a bit in back taxes."
"Joe the Plumber" probably now wishes he never had his 15 minutes of fame.
Update: It turns out Joe may also be related to Charles Keating.
FR: Bill Burton, Obama-Biden Campaign National Press Secretary
RE: John McCain's plan to "whip" "That One's" "you-know-what"
DA: October 15, 2008
In tonight's debate, Chuck Todd of NBC News says, McCain needs to "figure out how to disqualify Barack Obama." Time Magazine's Mark Halperin writes, "McCain will have to produce a major memorable moment." The NY Daily News says the debate is "do-or-die for McCain's campaign." However they put it, people agree, John McCain needs a game-changer.
Maybe the jokes were too much.
Sixty-one percent of all U.S. households watched at least one of the two 2008 election debates aired so far.
On average, 41% of all homes watched the V.P. debate last Thursday -- up one-third from the first Presidential debate the previous Friday night, which reached an average of 31% of all households.
Of all households, 39% watched neither debate, while 30.3% tuned in to both. 11.2% of all homes tuned in to the presidential debate only, and 19.5% tuned in to just the V.P. debate.
Both debates drew audiences made up mostly of white viewers with higher levels of income ($100,000+) and education (4+ years of college).
Older viewers (age 55+) made up the largest portion of the TV audiences for both debates (42% - 46%). However, the Biden-Palin V.P. debate (median age: 52) drew a slightly larger portion of younger viewers than the first Obama-McCain debate (median age: 54).
Homes headed by African Americans made up a larger portion of the presidential debate audience (14.0%) than the V.P. debate audience (12.3%). African American homes normally account for 12.2% of all U.S. TV households.
Overall, Hispanic viewers were less likely to watch the debates.
Hispanic households, which account for 11.1% of all TV households in
the U.S., made up just 6.3% to 6.5% of the combined audience for the
two debates.
But Marc Ambinder notes the downside: "One worry for Republicans is that McCain has already gone too negative too quickly; you never pull out the strongest punches against your opponent until the very end; it's hard to get tougher than the kindergarten ad... or over-the-top statements about Obama not being fit to lead."