If you don't think House Republicans have a tough road this fall, you're not listening to Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) who is sounding the alarm bells. Yesterday, he sent an extensive memo to Republican leaders outlining the problem as he sees it. 

Today, he was brutally blunt in an interview on Bloomberg TV's Political Capital with Al Hunt. He predicted a loss of 20-25 Republican seats if the election were held today and said Sen. John McCain would lose the presidential election if he was perceived as leading a third Bush term.

Excerpts of the transcript follow.

Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the presidential race in late January, pundits have wondered (in this order): Who will he endorse for president? When will he make an endorsement? Why hasn't he made an endorsement?

Interestingly, by not choosing between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton in their tough primary battle until the nomination was all but decided, Edwards stands as a potential healer of the Democratic party. And by remaining neutral in the race for so long, he's also best positioned to be Sen. Barack Obama's running mate.

Here's the case for picking Edwards:

1. He's already been tested on the national stage and not likely to cause a distracting scandal.
2. He appeals to the same working class white voters that back Clinton. 
3. He favors Obama's new brand of politics.
   
4. He could put North Carolina and possibly other Southern states in play.
   
5. Clinton would probably support him. With more than 1,700 delegates in Clinton's pocket, Obama needs to at least get her tacit approval if he wants to have a unified party.
   

With former Republican Rep. Bob Barr's announcement yesterday that he'll run for president as a Libertarian, he could actually play a very critical role in deciding the next president.

Most people think Barr's candidacy will drain votes from Sen. John McCain. Though Barr says he's not getting in the race to play a spoiler, that's clearly how he'll make the biggest impact. Hiring Ross Perot's former campaign manager doesn't mean he'll gather support anywhere near the levels Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But he can reach single digit support in many states. Ralph Nader was a spoiler in the 2000 election with just 2.7% of the national vote.

The one state to watch is Barr's home state of Georgia, where he could conceivably get five or more percent of the vote. Georgia has long been seen as part of the GOP base. However, when combined with the large numbers of black voters expected to come out for Sen. Barack Obama, Barr's candidacy could possibly tip the state's 15 electoral votes to the Democrats. That could be the difference in a close election.

One important wild card: Since Barr is opposed to the Iraq war, he might actually take votes away from Obama and not McCain.

With Sen. Hillary Clinton vowing to stay in the presidential race at least until next month, it makes sense to briefly handicap the remaining six contests.

In next week's West Virginia primary, on May 13, Sen. Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite given the state's friendly demographics. In fact, recent polls show her nearly 30 points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama.

On May 20, the campaign heads to Oregon, which leans towards Obama. Recent polls have him winning leading by a comfortable 8 to 12 point margin. Also voting on the same day is Kentucky, which should be Clinton territory by a large double-digit margin.

Puerto Rico votes on June 1 and may have the highest turnout of the remaining primaries. Despite the lack of public polling, most analysts pick Clinton as the favorite.

The Democratic primary season finally comes to an end two days later on June 3 when South Dakota and Montana get their turn. Both states lean in Obama's direction.

Despite most analysts declaring the Democratic presidential race "basically over," Sen. Barack Obama moves into a very uncomfortable phase of his campaign. He's essentially locked up the nomination but his main rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, is still in the race.

It reminds me of 1984 and 1988 when Jesse Jackson kept his White House bids alive all the way until the Democratic conventions. The question everyone asked all summer long was, "What does Jesse want?" He couldn't win, but he held enough power to be a voice at the table.

So, what does Hillary want? Here are a few things that Obama could offer to help ease her out of the race.

1. Help retiring her debt. Clinton loaned her campaign nearly $12 million since February and she'll want Obama's help in paying that back and taking care of any other unpaid bills.
2. A major policy win. Just as John Edwards got both Clinton and Obama to make ending poverty part of their campaigns, Clinton needs to show supporters she's had a substantive impact. Having her health care plan as part of the Democratic platform would appeal to her supporters -- and those of Edwards as well.
3. Input on the vice presidential selection. While Clinton might not want to be vice president, she has enough clout to make Obama pick someone who is loyal to her. That means someone like Sen. Evan Bayh or Gen. Wesley Clark could get the nod. It also means it won't be Bill Richardson.
   

Let the negotiations begin.

Editor's Note: This piece was inspired by discussions with several people, including Dan Conley who is also writing a piece on the topic for Salon.com.

Believe it or not, the Democratic presidential race is slowly coming to the end. The only problem is the two campaigns don't agree on the finish line.

After today's primaries, NBC News projects that there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) than there are to win in the final six contests (217) through June 3. "Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues."

Despite the proportional allocation of delegates, most analysts estimate that Sen. Barack Obama will add to his delegate count tonight. He's also been the beneficiary of many more superdelegates endorsements over the last month than his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Here are the latest delegate counts from the Associated Press and the networks:

AP: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,608
CNN: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,602
ABC: Obama 1,748, Clinton 1,604
NBC: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,611
CBS: Obama 1,745, Clinton 1,603

According to DNC rules, the winner needs 2025 delegates. However, as Obama closes in on that magic number, the Washington Times notes Clinton's campaign is trying to "move the goal posts" once more. The Clinton campaign now says the number needed to win is 2,208, which includes the disputed delegates.

Said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin: "That's what we believe is the standard for deciding this -- who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination"

Presidential politics is often more about beating expectations than beating your opponent. It's through this lens that the results of Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana must be viewed.

Based on the demographics, North Carolina should be a win for Sen. Barack Obama by a relatively large margin. However, if Sen. Hillary Clinton closes the gap to just a few points, it will be seen as a victory for her. If she manages to win the state, Obama's campaign could be mortally-wounded in the eyes of many superdelegates.

Indiana should be a closer race, though most polls give Sen. Hillary Clinton the edge. If she wins by any margin close to double-digits it will be seen as a big victory. However, if Obama pulls out the victory it could be the end of her campaign.

Of course, smaller wins for each candidate in their favored state would just mean that the race will continue. And recent polls suggest it's probably the most likely outcome.

For Democrats, one of the biggest problems with the protracted presidential race is that Sen. John McCain has been able to organize his general election campaign and begin to define himself to the nation without much interference.

But what should be more troubling to Democrats is how McCain is also gaining the upper hand by engaging Sen. Barack Obama. In almost daily attacks, he's drilled the Democratic frontrunner on his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers.

There are two main reasons for doing this:

1. He's energizing a Republican base that's never really been on board. Attacking a Democrat is one of the best ways for McCain to prove himself to this group of voters.
2. He's signaled to the Obama campaign that the general election will be a tough one. By getting Obama to respond to him almost daily, he helps undercut the argument that the Illinois senator is "above the fray" and running on a "new kind of politics."
   

As First Read notes this morning, however, the "downside to McCain’s tough tone, of course, is that it's very un-McCain. This isn’t the same guy we saw in 2000 or even in the GOP primaries... Indeed, this tack can turn off folks (especially those coveted independents) as much as it might hurt Obama."

A Political Wire reader runs the math and notes that before the Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Clinton needed to get at least 63% of the vote in the remaining states to have a chance to win more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton now needs 296 of the remaining 435 delegates up for grabs (or approximately 68% of the vote.) In contrast, Obama needs 140 of the remaining 435 to have the majority (or about 32% of the vote.)

Therefore, despite her win in the Keystone State, the results have in fact made it less likely Clinton can win.

Considering that most polls predict Obama should win North Carolina by a healthy margin and both campaigns think Indiana will be close, the chances of a Clinton victory are actually lower than ever.

Nearly every poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton on her way to a victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary. We won't fall into the trap of poll averaging, but will instead list the most recent polls here:

• Zogby: Clinton +10
• SurveyUSA: Clinton +6
• Suffolk: Clinton +10
• Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
• Strategic Vision: Clinton +7
• American Research Group: Clinton +13
• Mason-Dixon: Clinton +5
  
• Public Policy Polling: Obama +3
  

As in all elections, the results tonight will depend on turnout. In fact, the difference in the polls above are almost entirely on how they predict turnout.

Should Clinton win Pennsylvania by five points or less, it will widely be interpreted as an indication her voters stayed home. If she wins by double-digits, it will be due to her supporters flocking to the polls. To reasonably continue her campaign of convincing superdelegates about her electability, Clinton needs a big victory.

Meanwhile, as Ben Smith notes, Obama couldn't have had a worse few weeks. He's been on the defensive, had his worst debate performance of the campaign and seems more interested in running out the clock on Clinton than inspiring his own supporters. His attacks on Clinton over the last few days are an obvious attempt to get Clinton voters to stay home.

So after 15 months of campaigning, the Democratic presidential nomination fight comes down to Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania. A 10+ point lead will be seen as a big Clinton win while anything less than five points will be a big Obama win. However, if Clinton's victory is between five and 10 points, the campaign continues.