Huckabee Leads 2012 GOP Pack -- or Does Romney?

By Jonathan Allen | July 24, 2009 7:45 AM | | Comments (3)

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is atop the standings of 2012 Republican presidential candidate prospects in a new poll.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted from July 15 through July 18 places the rock-music-playing evangelical as the favorite of 26 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, 5 percentage points ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 7 points ahead of soon-to-be-former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and 16 points ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The also-rans (below 5 percent) in the Post poll were retiring Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (4 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (3 percent) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (1 percent). Two percent volunteered support for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, even though his name was not provided by pollsters.

But polls differ on this speculative matter, as you'd expect roughly three years out from the next Republican National Convention. A Gallup poll released July 16 showed Romney in the lead at 26 percent, with Palin second at 21 percent -- and Huckabee third at 19 percent.

And it's way too early to predict whether the GOP bold-faced names being tested in these polls will end up running for president. For example, a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll in early May that found 4 percent of respondents preferred South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford for the 2012 nomination. It's a safe bet that, after the scandal about his extramarital affair with a woman in Argentina, no one will be poll-testing his name for a presidential run anytime in the near future.

While this latest survey shows Romney a bit behind Huckabee, he has a personal and family history that suggests being a front-runner isn't all it is cracked up to be.

Remember that in 2007, during the run-up to the 2008 Republican presidential campaign, a number of polls showed Romney ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain -- the eventual nominee -- whose campaign organization had almost gone broke.

And his father, then-Michigan Gov. George Romney, led Richard M. Nixon in late 1966 polling about the 1968 GOP nomination. Nixon, who went on to win the nomination and the presidency, would surge ahead in the polls -- even before the elder Romney tried to justify his early support for the Vietnam war by saying he had been brainwashed by U.S. military officials during a 1965 fact-finding trip to Vietnam.

So perhaps drafting behind Huckabee would put less pressure on Mitt Romney as he works to builds strength for the race's stretch run.

More from CQ Politics

Categories: Republican Party

Tags: Barbour, Bush, Election_12, Gingrich, Huckabee, Jindal, McCain, Palin, Pawlenty, Romney

    Comments

  1. Mike Huckabee is by far the strongest conservative Republican Presidential candidate for 2012.

    Thousands of Huckabee Fans from coast to coast, from the North, South, East and West are rallying around Mike Huckabee for U.S. President in 2012.

    >>> Google it to find out: Huckabee Fan Club

    50 States of Huckabee Fans that span 351 Counties in America and expanding daily. That's more than 11% of every single county in every single state of America already!

    By the time 2012 rolls in, there will be a Huckabee Fan in every county of every state in America. This gigantic network of connected Huckabee Fans will build phenomenal momentum for Mike Huckabee going into the Presidential Elections.

    Ronald Reagan came back with a historic landslide victory against a sitting President from his 1976 loss to his huge win in 1980 to become one of the America's best President.

    Both Mike Huckabee and Ronald Reagan share so many similiar attributes.

    1. Both long term governor’s of their state
    2. Both had their TV shows
    3. Both had their Radio shows
    4. Both are strong Pro-Life conservatives
    5. Both are for tax reform (Supply side and Fair Tax)
    6. Both came into a recession economy
    7. Both of them the establishment didn’t jump on board with right away
    8. Both of them are Charismatic leaders
    9. Both are for limited government
    10. Both are Great Communicators

    No hill is too high for a Huckabee Fan to climb!

    Onward Huckabee Fans!

    Posted by: Huckapedia Author Profile Page | July 24, 2009 12:23 PM

  2. Mike Huckabee is awesome. As a military veteran, Mike is my only choice for 2012. We lost out by not getting him for this term, and I just hope we get this incredible leader for our Country before it is too late.

    We like Mike!

    Posted by: marinepatriot Author Profile Page | July 24, 2009 1:13 PM

  3. Jonathan: You are right that it is way too early to put much emphasis on 2012 polls. You state in your article that Huck led one poll, Romney one and Sanford one; giving the impression that they have each "won" one and this is therefore not very significant. You failed to mention that Huckabee has in fact led in several recent polls (July 20, Public Policy Polling - Huck fares best against Obama; June 18, Public Policy Polling - Huck fares best against Obama; June 2, CNN - Huck tops field at +1%; May 21, Public Policy Polling - Huck fares best against Obama; May 14, Fox News - Huck tops field at +2%) "Drafting" may be how you describe Romney's performance in recent polls. I, on the other hand, would describe it as further confirmation that Romney is on the way out. With the health care debate front and center, Romney will have difficulty distancing himself from his failed Romney Care health program in Massachusetts. Huck will be the nominee in 2012 because the people like what they see in him.

    Posted by: steadfast Author Profile Page | July 24, 2009 11:38 PM

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