Exit Polls: Let the 'Who Won' Guessing Game Begin

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The Associated Press and the news networks have released some information from the early runs of exit poll tallies in the Wisconsin primary, and they appear to lend some mystery to who is going to come out on top in the Democratic contest.

According to an analysis by ABC News' Gary Langer, a sizable majority of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters are women -- and Hillary Clinton has been running stronger among women than men. The number of older voters is up, according to this analysis, and this is another group with which Clinton has done well. Almost half the Democratic voters said they made their candidate choice more than a month ago, and Clinton was still widely viewed as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination at that time.

As one would expect in a state where blacks are 6 percent of the total population -- and very sparse outside Milwaukee -- about 90 percent of Democratic exit poll respondents in Wisconsin are white. While Obama has done well in overwhelming white states that held Democratic caucuses, most of his strong showings in higher-turnout primaries have been in places with much larger African-American populations.

Sounds like advantage Clinton? But wait...

The ABC analysis also shows that candidate attribute most important to the most Democratic voters was "can bring about needed change" -- which happens to be the central theme of Obama's campaign.

And, according to the Associated Press, exit polling shows that there was an influx of independent and first-time voters -- both typically strong constituencies for Obama -- into the Democratic primary. "Independents cast about one-quarter of the ballots in the Wisconsin race between Obama and Clinton, and roughly 15 percent of the electorate were first-time voters, according to preliminary results from interviews at polling places," AP reported.

Guess we're going to have to wait for the real votes to come in. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, 9 p.m. eastern.

 

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