It's hard to predict exactly when President Obama might announce his nominee to replace David H. Souter on the Supreme Court. But if recent history is any guide, expect a Senate confirmation vote before Congress leaves for its August recess.
The best recent parallel to the current situation is probably the two Supreme Court vacancies President Clinton faced early in his presidency. (Put aside the situation in 2005 when Sandra Day O'Connor waited until the end of the court's term in July and Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist's death threw off the process further.)
Both Byron R. White and Harry Blackmun announced their retirements in the spring: White in March 1993 and Blackmun in April 1994.
Three months passed before Clinton announced the nomination of Ruth Bader Ginsburg to replace White in June 1993 and only about five weeks to name Stephen G. Breyer as Blackmun's successor. The task was easier the second time since Breyer had already been identified as a top candidate the first time around.
In both instances, the Clinton administration heeded the lesson of Robert Bork's failed nomination in 1987 about the importance of not leaving a nomination hanging over the August recess when opposition can coalesce.
The Democratic-controlled Senate confirmed both Breyer and Ginsburg before leaving for their August recesses.
On ABC News' "This Week" , Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said the Senate should confirm the nominee before start of next term.
"Well, one, we certainly will have somebody in place," he said. "It would be irresponsible if we didn't have somebody in place by the beginning of the October session."
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