Jigsaw Politics

Democrats currently hold the governor's office and both chambers of the state legislature in Albany, which -- if it holds up through the 2010 elections -- would give the party complete control of the redistricting process. This is usually an enviable situation. But as has been the case for decades, the state's population growth lags the national rate, meaning New York once again is predicted to lose ground in the House, at least one seat, maybe two.

Were McHugh to stay in the House through 2010, it actually would make life a little easier from Democratic remappers, as they could just dismantle the current 23rd District and prod him into retirement.

This would have to be done with great finesse to avoid giving too much unfamiliar turf (and too many Republican voters) to the Democratic incumbents who hold all of the districts that border the 23rd -- three of whom (Scott Murphy in the 20th, Paul Tonko in the 21st and Dan Maffei in the 25th) are freshmen, with second-term member Michael Arcuri of the 24th District as the "senior" member. But it can be done.

If, however, the Democrats capture the 23rd when McHugh departs, that easy option goes off the table.

In fact, the only real downside I can think of to dominating a delegation the way the Democrats do in New York is that they've just about run out of Republican incumbents who they could pair off in a reapportionment downsizing. The GOP's other two current districts, the 3rd on Long Island held by veteran Rep. Peter T. King and the far western 26th held by freshman Christopher Lee, are hundreds of miles apart.

And there's no guarantee both of them will still be Republican seats when redistricting rolls around, especially if King were to leave his seat open to run for the Senate or governor next year, as he is mulling.

Democrats, in fact, are so close to a clean sweep in New York that they can taste it. But they also have extended past their natural voting base. They already hold several swing districts, as well as two that could fairly be called Republican-leaning and are both held by freshmen, Michael E. McMahon of the Staten Island-based 13th District and Eric Massa of the upstate 29th.

History is replete with examples of parties who controlled redistricting but cut their margins too close. Just asked the Republicans who ran the show in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania in the last round and drew what they thought were genius gerrymanders that would guarantee House seat majorities throughout this decade. Instead, they lost ground, and their majorities, in each of those states when the Democrats enjoyed their national resurgence in the 2006 and 2008 elections.

The Democrats also will face vocal and competing demands from their current and potentially vulnerable members to shore them up with more Democratic voters, not spread those voters even more thinly to try to create a tenuous monopoly on the state's House delegation.

So if I were playing Democratic strategist in New York, I would pack as many Republicans as possible into one GOP super-majority district, then use the reapportionment downsizing to create a district or two that would give the Democrats a "fair fight" chance to win. Better to concede a seat or two to the Republicans and secure your hold on the rest than to create a bunch of districts that could easily swing back to the GOP under the right circumstances.