New York's 2010 Elections Look Like a Thrill a Minute

By Bob Benenson | June 22, 2009 2:10 PM | | Comments (0)

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The ongoing stalemate in the closely divided New York state Senate -- with each major party arguing it is in charge -- has been aptly described as a "circus" by a number of Albany watchers. But it ultimately will be just a sideshow to the political carnival that the state will host next year.

We at CQ Politics are preparing our first House race ratings for the 2010 elections, and our early take shows nine of the state's 29 congressional districts have competitive races in store. That figure of nine is matched only by California, which has a total of 53 House seats, or 24 more than New York.

Since the Democrats have built a daunting 26-3 lead over the Republicans in the state's House delegation, it's a no-brainer that most of the seats in play are held by the majority party. And most of those are held by junior members whose takeovers of formerly Republican seats over the past two cycles held the Democrats to their current state of dominance.

Democratic incumbents who seem likely to face tough or at least modestly serious challenges next year include freshman Eric Massa, Dan Maffei, Michael E. McMahon and Scott Murphy -- hey, the Four Ms! -- as well as second-termers Michael Arcuri and John Hall.

The Republicans, though, face fights for all three of their remaining seats, including the seat John M. McHugh will vacate if he is confirmed as President Obama's pick to be secretary of the Army (prompting a pre-2010 special election); the seat veteran Rep. Peter T. King may leave open to run for statewide office; and the one occupied by freshman Christopher Lee.

And these races will have to compete for attention with contests for:

  • Both of the state's Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats, with Charles E. Schumer a near shoo-in for re-election, but Kirsten Gillibrand facing a potentially tough special election fight to hold the seat to which she was appointed after Hillary Rodham Clinton skedaddled to become secretary of State.

  • A governor's race in which interim Democratic incumbent David A. Paterson, he of the deeply sagging approval ratings, faces an uncertain fate.

  • And a showdown to decide which party will hold sway going forward in that troublesome state Senate -- a fight that normally would be below the political radar, but will bring in big bucks and involvement by the national parties because of its impact on the congressional and state redistricting that will follow the 2010 election.

I'd be tempted to label this New York election festival as the Woodstock of 2010 politics, but I was reminded by a TV show this morning that next month will mark the 40th anniversary of that iconic rock-music event. As a member of That Generation, it's sobering to come to grips with that.

We are stardust.... we are olden.

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