Now that the Democrats have kicked away the 60th seat in their Senate majority by making the decision to send Barack Obama to Massachusetts on Sunday to campaign for Attorney General Martha Coakley's flailing campaign, what's next?

It looks to me as though Obama's Sunday visit will be the final blow to Coakley's campaign -- the straw that broke the camel's back.

On the two key metrics used to judge a campaign -- manpower and message -- the visit will cost more than it will gain. And in a race that every pollster worth his salt, and every handicapper worth his, now agrees is going right down to the wire, the net loss to the Coakley campaign will be enough to sink it.

Tuesday's New York Times ran a fascinating interview of former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford, conducted by Timesman Michael Barbaro.

I say "fascinating" as in "Oh, my God, I cannot believe Ford actually said these things to a reporter for The New York Times in the belief, or even hope, that they would help him win Democratic primary votes against an appointed senator."

Right out of the gate, Ford was asked the obvious question: What in the world makes you think you're qualified to represent Noo Yawk in the United States Senate?

The first line of Ford's answer, unedited: "I ran for office 14 years ago in Tennessee, for Congress."

(Umm, yes, sir, that's precisely why the reporter is asking you what in the world makes you think you make sense as a Senator representing New York?)

In Illinois, now home of the nation's earliest primary elections for federal offices, early voting has begun.

That's right: In the summer of 2007, the Illinois legislature -- controlled by Democrats -- changed the date of Illinois's primary elections, moving them from their traditional third-Tuesday-in-March slot to a much earlier, first-Tuesday-in-February slot, so Illinois primary voters could vote on the same day as almost two dozen other states that had moved up their 2008 presidential primary dates.

The change was made explicitly for the purpose of benefiting home-state Sen. Barack Obama's chances of capturing the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

With the release of a new Rasmussen Reports survey showing the special Senate election in Massachusetts within 10 points, I am so glad I'm not Sen. Robert Menendez today.

Actually, come to think of it, I'm glad I'm not Robert Menendez every day -- but especially not today, or tomorrow, or for the next 14 days, because for the next 14 days, the New Jersey Democrat is the Most Important Democratic Senator for Those Who Want To See Obamacare Become Law, and that's just another way of saying he's The Guy Who'll Probably Get Blamed If Things Don't Break the Right Way.

And what would constitute things breaking the wrong way?

Losing the Jan. 19 special election for the Senate seat long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy, for starters.

At first glance, one might think that either John Cornyn's got his facts wrong, or there's something terribly wrong over at the Republican National Committee.

Cornyn, the Texas Republican who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is quoted in this Reid Wilson piece for Hotline On Call as saying, "Obviously, in 2010, the vast majority of the action is going to be in Congress -- the House races and the Senate races. There are obviously governor's races and other important races around the country. But I think as far as the RNC's concerned, it's going to be all about Congress."

That Cornyn would be hopeful the RNC would have funds it could spend to help with key Senate races next October is understandable -- among the three party committees, the RNC is the big dog, with the lion's share (if you'll excuse the mixed animal metaphors) of the funding.

Rep. Tom Perriello -- who won election to the Congress representing Virginia's 5th Congressional District by just 727 votes in the third-closest House race in the country last year -- is, not surprisingly, one of the ten most vulnerable members of the House of Representatives. The National Republican Congressional Committee has him high on its target list, and 5th District Republicans are licking their chops -- so much so that there are no fewer than seven announced candidates for the GOP nomination.

On Saturday, 34 Virginia GOP leaders representing the 21 party units that make up the 5th Congressional District will meet in Appomattox to decide how 5th District Republicans will choose their congressional nominee for the 2010 elections --by means of a primary election, a party canvass (read: firehouse primary), or a party convention?

As always, the rules they choose will heavily influence the outcome of the contest: Because a primary election involves far more voters (and is therefore more expensive to campaign in), it is widely believed that a primary election would favor state Sen. Robert Hurt (whose recent entry into the race was deemed a recruiting success by the NRCC); a convention or party canvass, on the other hand, doesn't take as much money to compete in, and would, therefore, strengthen the chances of the other six, lesser-known candidates running for the nomination.

Every twelve years -- during the Year of the Tiger, according to the Chinese calendar -- a unique situation obtains in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia: Races for the U.S. House of Representatives are the top of the ticket races in the state. There are no governor's races, nor are there contests for the U.S. Senate. The result of this lack of this statewide campaign activity, not surprisingly, is a lower level of interest in politics in general, and, consequently, a lower voter turnout; and, as any good operative will tell you, a lower turnout level translates into an advantage for the side whose partisans are more intensely motivated.

In these three states today, there are six Democrats sitting in seats that are rated as Republican seats, according to Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index (the Cook PVI is a calculation that measures how strongly a given congressional district leans toward one party or the other, as compared to the nation as a whole).

To give an example, the most strongly Democratic districts in the House are New York's 15th and 16th Districts, both rated at D+41; the most strongly Republican districts in the House are Alabama's 6th District and Texas's 13th, both of which are rated R+29.

Our friends over at RedState are in high dudgeon again, this time over news reports that Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu "sold" her vote on health care reform to Harry Reid -- not for $100 million, as was initially claimed, but $300 million, as she corrected reporters off the floor.

"Back in the old days, people would at least look ashamed when caught being bribed, but not Mary Landrieu," wrote Erick Erickson last night. "Senator Harry Reid put a provision on the health care plan that originally called for $100 million to be funneled to Louisiana exclusively. Mary Landrieu refused to vote for cloture on the motion to proceed to the health care debate. Reid raised the offer to $300 million and Mary proved she wasn't a cheap date after all -- she took the increase, voted for cloture, and then bragged about the $300 million bribe."

Said Landrieu in defense of her actions: "I will correct something. It's not $100 million, it's $300 million, and I'm proud of it and will keep fighting for it."

This Newark Star-Ledger piece by Josh Margolin confirms rumors that swirled through the Garden State over the summer -- the Obama political operation in the White House was seriously considering dumping embattled incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, and replacing him on the ballot with someone they deemed more electable.

A White House envoy was dispatched to New Jersey to conduct conversations with potential replacement candidates, including State Senate President Dick Codey.

This revelation follows by about six weeks the revelation that the Obama political operation went through the same calculation regarding embattled New York Gov. David A. Paterson -- except that in the case of Paterson, the White House went so far as to actually inform the governor that it was the president's desire that he abandon his bid for election.

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie spent a lot of time this summer and fall in places New Jersey Republicans don't usually spend time -- and where New Jersey Republicans typically don't do that well when it comes time for elections.

Camden, Essex, and Hudson counties -- home to Camden, Newark, and Jersey City, respectively -- are considered the three corners of the Democratic stool in New Jersey.

Together, they typically provide a Democratic candidate running for statewide office a 140,000-vote cushion.

But Christie decided early on to make a play for the votes of these city dwellers, based largely on shared support for increased educational opportunity for inner city children trapped in failing schools.

It's not often that one gets proof that a supposedly hare-brained supposition -- so wild, it was seen by some as evidence of an obsession bordering on paranoia -- actually was taking place.

It is rarer still when one gets the proof just a few months after the supposition was first made public.

So consider me delighted to point you in the direction of this blockbuster piece by the Newark Star-Ledger's Josh Margolin, which reveals for the first time that, in fact, the Obama White House was so concerned over the summer about New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's faltering campaign that senior Obama strategists considered dumping Corzine and replacing him with Senate President/former Acting Governor Dick Codey -- as I suggested they might, way back on July 9.

Democrats went to some length in their consideration of options -- at one point, according to Margolin, they commissioned a poll testing possible replacements against GOP nominee Chris Christie.

With less than 24 hours to go before the polls open, campaign insiders are getting phone calls from reporters and major donors and hangers-on, and the standard response to "What's your best bet?" is "I swear, it all depends on turnout -- really."

In New Jersey this year, that line has the added value of actually being truthful.

The final pre-election Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey of the 2009 New Jersey governor's race is out, and it shows a 7-point swing over the last five days away from incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and toward GOP nominee Chris Christie.

Last week's survey release showed a 5-point, 43-38 percent Corzine advantage over Christie; today's survey shows a 2-point, 42-40 percent Christie lead over Corzine.

I wrote about it last week. PolitickerNJ's Wally Edge warned about it yesterday. And this morning, Harry Hurley, South Jersey's most influential talk radio host, says he received "more than a hundred emails from angry Eagles fans" who didn't make it to Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field in time to see what he labeled "perhaps the finest half of Eagles football in the Andy Reid era" -- and it's a safe bet that for every email Harry received, there were another 100 angry fans who didn't email.

Their gripe? Barack Obama's final-weekend visit to Camden to shore up the faltering campaign of Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine.

The Obama motorcade shut down the Walt Whitman Bridge -- the principal artery between South Jersey and Philadelphia -- and sections of Interstate 42 yesterday afternoon, long in advance of Obama's scheduled 12:55 PM arrival at the Philadelphia airport.

This morning's survey release by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute is the best news Chris Christie has had in a long time. While he hasn't yet closed the deal -- he'll need five more days of hard, error-free campaigning to do that -- the greatest threat to his victory is on its way to becoming a spent force. The race for governor of New Jersey is, once again, his to lose.

That lede might upset the team running the campaign of embattled Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. After all, they might think that Corzine's first significant lead of the year -- at 43-38 percent over Christie, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett drawing 13 percent of the vote -- would be cause for celebration.

It will be. But for Christie, not for Corzine.

"New York 23" ... Them's fightin' words.

These days, whether you're a conservative activist, or a Republican Party official, saying "New York 23" out loud leads to a shortening of breath, a quickening of the pulse, and a tightening of the muscles. Heads whip around to see who said it, and in what context -- friend, or foe?

With less than a week to go before the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, tempers are flaring on the campaign trail -- and fingers are being pointed in, and at, a big white building at 320 First Street SE.