In the Right

Two weeks after his victory in the GOP primary, Christie visited Elizabeth, New Jersey, just outside Newark, with a New York Times reporter in tow.

"You'll know if we won on election night not by how much we win Ocean and Sussex by," senior Christie strategist Mike DuHaime told the reporter, naming Republican strongholds in the outer suburbs, "but how much do we lose Hudson, Essex and Camden by."

So, did the gambit work?

On the basis of voter returns and exit polls, no, it didn't.

According to the Edison exit poll for CNN, the defeated incumbent, Jon Corzine won 88 percent of the votes cast by African-Americans in New Jersey, while Christie won the votes of just 9 percent. Those numbers track almost exactly with the typical Democrat-Republican split among African-Americans in New Jersey as seen in previous elections.

Perhaps more surprisingly, Christie's focus on the cities didn't do anything to drive up his numbers there, compared to average GOP efforts in the cities -- in fact, he pulled about 23,000 fewer votes out of those three counties than did the average Republican gubernatorial candidate over the previous four elections (out of which Republicans won two and lost two).

In Camden, Christie pulled 49,136 votes, about 2,000 votes more than did the average GOP gubernatorial candidate -- that's about 4 percent better than average.

But in Essex, Christie pulled 47,146 votes, about 13,500 votes fewer than did the average GOP gubernatorial candidate -- that's about 22 percent worse than average.

And in Hudson, Christie pulled just 29,301 votes, about 12,000 votes fewer than did the average GOP gubernatorial candidate -- that's about 29 percent worse than average.

But wait. We know Corzine didn't do nearly as well around the state, including in typical Democratic strongholds, as did the average Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Perhaps, despite Christie's pulling lower numbers in Camden, Essex, and Hudson than did the average Republican, Corzine's own numbers were so much lower than they should have been that DuHaime's prediction was true anyway?

Not so.

Corzine definitely underperformed, against the average Democratic gubernatorial candidate of the previous four elections.

But not in two of these three key counties -- at least not judging by his margin of victory over Christie, as compared to the average margin of victory on a county-by-county basis.

In Essex, for instance, Corzine's margin of victory over Christie was 64,808 votes. That's larger than the standard 63,854-vote Democratic margin.

And in Hudson, Corzine's margin of victory over Christie was 46,844 votes. That's larger than the standard 42,050-vote Democratic margin.

Only in Camden did Corzine's margin of victory over Christie not match the standard -- for Corzine, Camden provided only a 17,730-vote margin, where it typically provides the Democratic candidate a 35,439-vote margin.

So despite what DuHaime told the New York Times reporter in June about their inner-city strategy, Christie actually lost Essex, Hudson, and Camden by about 23,000 votes more than did the average GOP candidate of the previous four cycles.

Yet Christie defeated Corzine statewide by more than 100,000 votes.

How?

By setting records for Republican votes produced in GOP strongholds -- like the afore-mentioned Sussex and Ocean.

In Sussex, Christie produced 31,665 votes -- that's about 6,000 votes more than the typical GOP candidate, representing a 23 percent increase.

Meanwhile, Corzine's vote total in Sussex was just 12,849, about 600 votes fewer than the typical Democratic candidate, representing a 5 percent decrease.

Put them together, and Christie's Sussex margin -- 18,816 votes -- was about 54 percent higher than normal.

But it was in Ocean County that the Christie numbers blew up the spreadsheets.

In Ocean County, over the previous four elections, the Democratic candidate had averaged 73,142 votes, and the Republican candidate had averaged 86,065 votes, to create an average GOP margin of victory of 12,923 votes.

But in Ocean County on Tuesday, Christie captured 123,882 votes -- almost 38,000 votes higher than the typical Republican candidate, representing a 44 percent increase.

Corzine, meanwhile, won just 53,628 votes -- almost 20,000 votes fewer than the typical Democrat, representing a 27 percent decrease.

Consequently, Christie's margin of victory in Ocean County -- 70,254 votes -- was about four and a half times higher than normal.

And in Monmouth County -- a GOP stronghold never mentioned by DuHaime -- Christie did even better.

In Monmouth County, over the previous four elections, the Democratic candidate had averaged 84,532 votes, and the Republican had averaged 101,978 votes, to create an average GOP margin of victory of 17,445 votes.

But in Monmouth County on Tuesday, Christie won 128,328 votes -- more than 26,000 votes more than the typical GOP candidate, representing a 26 percent increase.

Corzine, meanwhile, won just 64,315 votes -- more than 20,000 votes fewer than the typical Democrat, representing a 24 percent decrease.

So Christie's margin of victory in Monmouth County -- 64,013 votes -- was about two and a half times higher than average.

Christie's margin of victory in the two shore counties more than made up for his combined losses in Camden, Essex, and Hudson.

The pattern repeats in other areas known in New Jersey as GOP strongholds -- Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Cape May and Somerset Counties all saw Christie's vote totals rise significantly as compared to the average, while Corzine's vote totals fell significantly.

Christie didn't win by competing successfully for inner-city votes. He won by rolling up massive margins in GOP base areas.

The question now is, was this part of the plan all along -- in which case DuHaime's statement to the New York Times reporter was part of a clever subterfuge, a bit of strategic deception worthy of Sun Tzu?

Or did it just happen that way?

Only DuHaime and a few others know for sure. And I'm betting they're not talking.

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