In the Right

Well, start here -- with a reminder that Paterson was informed back in September by White House political director Patrick Gaspard that Obama would prefer Paterson not to run for a full term as governor in his own right.

That is, Obama has already broken with Paterson; what's Paterson got to lose?

Then go here, to the release of a new Siena Research Institute poll showing Paterson trailing New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by a 75 percent-16 percent margin in a hypothetical 2010 gubernatorial primary contest.

That is, Paterson's already running 60 points behind in a prospective 2010 gubernatorial primary; what's Paterson got to lose?

Bolstering Paterson's opposition -- and the means to turn that opposition into a political strategy that could get him closer to being back in the game -- are the results of a new Marist Poll released today.

Asked if they thought holding the trial of five alleged terrorists in Manhattan was a "good idea" or a "bad idea," New York City residents split -- 45 percent thought it was a good idea, 41 percent thought it was a bad idea, 14 percent weren't sure. Among registered voters, the numbers were exactly the same.

When broken down by party identification among registered voters in the survey, 48 percent of Democrats thought it was a good idea, while just 39 percent thought it a bad idea; just 23 percent of Republicans thought it a good idea, while 68 percent thought it a bad idea; and among non-enrolled voters, 48 percent thought it a good idea, against 36 percent who thought it a bad idea.

So, if Democrats think it's a good idea by a 48 percent to 39 percent margin, how could Paterson use his opposition to get closer to being back in the game?

It's all in the crosstabs.

It's not enough just to look at the party ID number and make a determination -- you have to look inside the survey, at the crosstabs.

Break down the survey by household income, race, sex, and age. And before we take a look at that breakdown, let's stop for a moment and think about likely coalitions in a New York Democratic primary pitting Cuomo against Paterson -- Paterson's coalition will be younger, poorer, and less white, while Cuomo's coalition will be older, better off, and whiter.

Now let's look at the crosstabs, and see what we can see.

First, among those with a household income of more than $50,000, 47 percent think it's a good idea, against 43 percent who oppose it.

Whites think it's a bad idea, 49 percent to 41 percent.

And there's a definite correlation between age and opposition -- those younger than 35 favor the idea, by 51 percent to 39 percent; those 35-54 favor it by just 44 percent to 38 percent; but those over 55 oppose it, by 46 percent to 41 percent.

And while the survey doesn't show it, it's a good bet that those who oppose the decision are a lot more intense about their opposition than are those who support the decision.

So, based on the crosstabs, opposition to the decision to hold terror trials in Manhattan is strongest among the better off, whiter, older segment of the population -- in other words, Cuomo's coalition.

Paterson's opposition to holding the terror trials in Manhattan could, if used properly, be just the wedge he needs to break up Cuomo's coalition.

Of course, to use it properly, Paterson would have to raise tons of money in order to be able to turn Cuomo's coalition against him, and he'd have to further benefit from a Cuomo decision to engage on the issue.

So, is opposition to holding terror trials enough to win Paterson a tough primary against Cuomo? Likely not. But when you're a drowning man, just about anything looks like a life jacket.

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