In the Right

Asking what it would take for Daggett to seal the deal is the political equivalent of asking which came first, the chicken or the egg -- because for Daggett to win, his supporters must believe he can win, but his supporters won't believe he can win until he actually does it ... which is, of course, impossible to do before the election.

So let's look at what would prevent him from winning.

Most speculation on this topic in recent days has centered on a comparison of Daggett to Ventura, who famously surged in the closing weeks to win election in 1998 as the Reform Party candidate in Minnesota.

This speculation is driven, in no small measure, by the fact that Ventura and Daggett share the same ad man -- North Woods Advertising's Bill Hillsman.

Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com on Friday offered six reasons why Daggett is not likely to repeat Ventura's improbable victory:

1. Ventura began (and ended) his race with much higher name identification than Daggett has, even now.

2. Minnesota had a history of supporting third party candidates (the Farmer-Labor Party elected three governors, four U.S. Senators, and eight U.S. Representatives in the first years of the 20th Century, before merging with the Democratic Party in 1944), while New Jersey has elected nothing but Republicans or Democrats since the War Between the States.

3. Ventura's opponents were limited, by state law, to spending no more than $2.1 million in television advertising through the course of the entire general election campaign, and, consequently, they were never able to move that much more message than he was, with his measly $400,000; that amount of money, $2.1 million, barely pays for one week's worth of Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's regular ad buy.

4. New York and Philadelphia -- where all the broadcast television stations that air advertising into New Jersey can be found -- are the most expensive and fourth-most expensive media markets in the country, so even if Daggett did have money to burn, it wouldn't go far.

5. The New York-Philadelphia World Series -- all the media oxygen between New York and Philadelphia could be sucked out of the room, effectively freezing the race for the final week.

6. GOP nominee Chris Christie and his allies at the Republican Governors Association have come to understand Daggett is a mortal threat, and have begun airing ads attacking him, driving his negatives a bit higher.

Of these, the first five are salient; the sixth is, to my mind, a wash, because while it is true that the Christie and RGA ads attacking Daggett are driving his negatives higher, it's also true that they're driving his name identification higher, as well.

Missing from the list is the fact that Minnesota in 1998 allowed for same-day voter registration, which allowed a surge of atypical voters to show up at the polls and cast ballots; New Jersey in 2009, by contrast, does not allow for same-day registration.

A check of Minnesota voting history makes clear how important the new voter surge was -- in that 1998 election, Minnesota saw more than 300,000 more voters than had ever cast ballots before in a governor's race, and the surge was particularly strong in the collar counties surrounding the Twin Cities, where Ventura ran strongest.

As the 2000 Almanac of American Politics put it, "Ventura's breakout came in the counties outside the Twin Cities core but within the Twin Cities media market. Within this one-third of the state, turnout was actually up 2% from the presidential election year of 1996, and up a whopping 31% from the last off year of 1994. This is the youngest part of Minnesota, with many young families moving out from the twin metropolis; Minnesota allows Election Day registration, and the bulk of the new voters went for Ventura. He carried absolute majorities in six of these counties, and above 40% in all but two others."

One final difficulty for Daggett must be noted -- New Jersey's famous ballot position hodgepodge.

Under New Jersey law, the nominees of the Democratic and Republican Parties are given columns one and two on the ballots, making their names easier to find. Independents can sometimes find their names three rows down, and five columns over.

To my mind, this matters less in a gubernatorial election than it does in a down-ballot race; the vast majority of voters who will cast a ballot on November 3 will be coming to the polls for the express purpose of casting a ballot in the governor's race, and, seeing as how it's the top of the ticket race, it stands to reason that they're likely to take the extra time necessary to find their first choice on the ballot.

The worse news for Daggett is that he did not win any of the newspaper editorial board endorsements he could have expected to -- he should have been in the running for the endorsements of The New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Bergen Record (formally, The Record of Hackensack), the Trenton Times, the Asbury Park Press, and the Press of Atlantic City.

Instead, Corzine and Christie split those endorsements.

And Daggett has no more made-for-media events to roll out this week. The debates are done, and while Daggett did well, he was rewarded with only one newspaper endorsement.

So, to sum up, Daggett will have a hard time replicating Ventura's 1998 upset. The odds are certainly stacked against him, and the likelihood is that he will do nothing but play the spoiler role in this election.

But that doesn't mean a Daggett victory will be impossible. Because the fact is, he's eight days out, he's within striking distance, and the momentum -- at least, as demonstrated in public opinion surveys -- is all going his way.

He's found a way, somehow, to overcome all those obstacles, and position himself for a final surge.

In order for Daggett to win, he's got one major threshold to cross -- he's got to be seen as a viable candidate by his own supporters. In order for Daggett to win, Daggett's support must first hold firm; but in order for his support to hold firm, his supporters must first believe he can win. Very few people are willing to go to the trouble of casting a ballot for a candidate when they're sure he's going to lose. Only when they believe he can win are they likely to follow through and actually cast their ballots for him.

In other words, it's all about psychology.

In the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey released on October 14, for instance, the numbers were clear:

Among all likely voters surveyed, 77 percent agreed with the statement that Daggett could not win. Among Republicans, the number was 83 percent; among Democrats, 79 percent; among Independents, 75 percent.

And among Daggett supporters? Fully 59 percent didn't think he could win. (I had to get in touch with the pollsters for that particular data cell.)

Consequently, while 80 percent of Christie's supporters told the pollster they were locked in, and they were certain they were not going to change their mind before Election Day, and 75 percent of Corzine's supporters said the same thing, just 39 percent of Daggett's supporters said they were sure of their vote.

By contrast, 59 percent of Daggett supporters told the Quinnipiac pollsters they might change their mind before Election Day.

When fewer than four in 10 of your own voters think you can win, and almost six in 10 might change their mind, you've got a problem.

The good news for Daggett is, that last Quinnipiac survey was in the field 14-20 days ago, before the RGA and the Christie campaign started running their ads against Daggett.

Those ads drove Daggett's negative ratings higher -- but they also drove his ballot test higher, because without advertising of his own, it was only the RGA and Christie ads that were using his name on television.

That's got to be an odd feeling for a candidate -- to be pleased to see an opponent's negative ad come on the television.

That's where the SurveyUSA and Eagleton-Rutgers polls come in. In these two polls, which dominated news coverage through the course of this crucial weekend, Daggett is right at the 20 percent threshold.

Daggett doesn't look like much of a wrestler. But if he could get that psychology-generating 20 percent plus in the next Quinnipiac survey this week, Election Night a week from tomorrow could look a lot like a World Wrestling Entertainment event - and he could be the guy delivering the smackdown.

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