Could Corzine's Long Ball End Up as His Lead Zeppelin?

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Is Jon Corzine about to throw the long ball?

CQ Photo
Randal Pinkett (Getty Images/Frederick M. Brown)

In the Garden State, GOP gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie's lead over incumbent Democratic Gov. Corzine is large, and growing larger -- 12 points, according to the latest survey by Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute, released this morning.

And Corzine, apparently, believes he may have to throw the long ball. But will his Hail Mary work, or will it end his campaign?

This race is not over, and national GOP leaders looking to tout a New Jersey victory as a "bellwether" would be wise to stay focused on execution for the next 112 days.

Christie's lead over Corzine is not a fluke. The lead has grown steadily as the campaign has progressed -- from 50-40 percent on June 10, to 53-41 percent today.

Republicans are backing Christie in far stronger numbers than Democrats are backing Corzine. Christie leads among Republicans by 89-7 percent, while Corzine's lead among Democrats is just 76-19 percent.

As important, Christie's lead over Corzine among Independents and unaffiliated voters continues to grow -- from a 56-32 percent lead in June, to a 64-28 percent lead today.

Worse news for Corzine can be found in a shocking data cell, buried deep in the poll's cross-tabs: among African-American likely voters, Corzine's lead is just 66-29 percent. You read that right -- Chris Christie, the Republican nominee for governor of New Jersey, is currently taking 29 percent of the African-American vote.

No Republican statewide candidate in New Jersey has come close to taking a third of the African-American vote since Gov. Tom Kean's 1985 re-election campaign, when he won a statewide blowout after spending four years shoveling billions of dollars to New Jersey's urban areas.

If Gov. Corzine's own internal polls show the same data, that could explain why the latest news reports indicate that he's strongly considering choosing Randal Pinkett -- best known as the winner of Season Four of Donald Trump's "The Apprentice" -- as his nominee for lieutenant governor.

It's clear that Corzine is floating trial balloons, and gauging reaction while keeping his own mouth shut.

Pinkett's bio is impressive -- but is New Jersey ready for a reality TV star as a serious candidate for lieutenant governor, especially considering the possibility that Corzine could, after winning re-election, jump ship a la Sarah Palin for something more exciting?

The Pinkett trial balloon could just as easily end up being a lead zeppelin -- or something even worse.

Oddly enough, as PolitickerNJ.com's Wally Edge points out, while Pinkett would be the first African-American to run statewide as the nominee of a major party in New Jersey, he would not be the first reality TV star to run for office in New Jersey -- that distinction already is held by Tara Dowdell, who once worked for disgraced former Gov. Jim McGreevey.

Actually, the notion of a reality TV star running for office in New Jersey is quite fitting. Reality TV is more "real world" than New Jersey politics, any day of the week.

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