This piece by Matt Mackowiak -- one of the rising stars among GOP communicators -- on President Obama's move to appoint Utah Gov.Jon Huntsman Jr. as ambassador to the People's Republic of China does a very nice job of explaining the strategic political implications of the move for both Obama's likely re-election campaign in 2012 and Huntsman's own short-term political future.
Off the top of my head, I can think of two U.S. envoys to Asian nations of great significance who later dabbled in presidential politics.
Both were Republicans.
Both served their country as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Both served their party as nominee for vice president.
Both won the New Hampshire primary in the next presidential election following their service as vice presidential nominee.
One used that New Hampshire primary victory as a springboard for a successful campaign for the presidency, while the other saw his campaign falter.
One, of course, was George Bush, who prepared for his eventual ascension to the presidency with service as a member of Congress, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, chairman of the Republican National Committee, CIA director, chief of the U.S. Liaison Office in the People's Republic of China (prior to the 1979 resumption of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, we did not have an embassy -- we had a "liaison office"), and vice president.
The other -- whose service as U.S. ambassador to South Vietnam might prove a more interesting case study for Huntsman -- was Henry Cabot Lodge Jr..
Why might Lodge's service as ambassador prove interesting to Huntsman, and Huntsman's allies?
Because Lodge won the New Hampshire primary in 1964 while still serving as ambassador -- he won as a write-in candidate over Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater, with a "campaign" that was a true draft movement organized by political amateurs.
Lodge never appeared in New Hampshire, and he didn't even send a letter approving the draft effort.
He believed that, like most draft movements, this one would fail, and he didn't want to associate himself with it.
Lodge was stunned.
On the evening of March 10, 1964, Walter Cronkite announced at 7:18 PM that in a shocking upset, Lodge had carried New Hampshire with 36 percent of the vote over Goldwater's 22 percent and New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller's 21 percent and Richard Nixon's 17 percent.
Lodge and national Republican leaders then began to take his candidacy seriously.
But he did not return home to campaign actively -- instead, he let the amateurs continue their operation.
Rockefeller and Goldwater picked up their games, refocused their efforts, and planned for future contests, while Lodge remained in Saigon.
The next primary wasn't until four weeks later, on April 7, in Wisconsin. None of the three major candidates contested it, and it went to favorite son Congressman John Byrnes.
Following Wisconsin, there was Illinois on April 14 (won by Goldwater), New Jersey on April 21 (won by Lodge), Pennsylvania on April 28 (won by favorite son GOP Gov. William Scranton).
It was a much different time, of course.
Presidential nominations were won less on the basis of primary votes than on delegates bartered, and the primary calendar was both later and longer.
Had Lodge competed in 1964 under the rules and the schedule in place in 2008, it's even money that he could have won the nomination.
So who says Huntsman just took himself out if the running? An appointment as ambassador to China may be a key first step to the 2012 nomination.
Comments
Another point which makes it ironic... Lodge was appointed by a Democratic President, Kennedy.
Posted by: oldmd
| May 18, 2009 4:47 PM
Post A Comment