In the Right

A little history is in order.

In Texas in 1948, Johnson trailed incumbent Texas Gov. Coke Stevenson by 40-34 percent in the first round of voting in the Democratic Senate primary; in their famous runoff, Johnson came from behind to defeat Stevenson by 87 votes, and earned himself the sobriquet "Landslide Lyndon."

In Alabama in 1970, Wallace trailed incumbent Alabama Gov. Albert Brewer by 42-40 percent in the first round of voting in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but came back to defeat Brewer by 52-48 percent in the runoff election.

Georgia in 1972 was a peculiar circumstance - there were actually two primary elections, and two runoff elections.

In both sets of elections, Nunn trailed the appointed incumbent, Sen. David Gambrell, in the first round of voting, before coming back to defeat Gambrell in both runoff elections.

So what does any of this Southern political history have to do with American Idol?

Simple: American Idol is an election contest that, in style and format, most closely resembles a traditional Southern primary election, where finishing in second place in the first round of voting often leads to victory in the final round of voting.

And based on a close analysis of Southern primary election results, we can determine a pattern, draw conclusions, and then apply that analysis to this week's season finale of American Idol.

Consider:

The first data point we see demonstrated in the Southern primaries is that the more liberal candidate takes the early lead, but the more conservative candidate emerges victorious in the end.

Why?

Because in most of these elections, most of the electorate was conservative, but the conservative vote was split in the first round of voting among several different candidates; meanwhile, the liberal vote rallied behind just one candidate, and gave him a plurality in the first round.

But when voting moved to a second round that was limited to just one liberal and one conservative (or, to be more specific, one candidate who was perceived as liberal, and one candidate who was perceived as more conservative), the conservative majority in the electorate cast their votes en masse for the conservative and propelled him to victory.

Do American Idol contests follow the same dynamic?

We can't really judge the first three seasons of the show, because a different format was used, but based on the last four seasons, it would appear that American Idol contests do, in fact, slant toward the contestant who appears to be more conservative - and that the votes of the third-place finisher's supporters can tip the balance in the final round.

While last year's contest - in which David Cook defeated David Archuleta - is a toss-up (both finalists could be considered conservative), the Season 6 contest (Jordin Sparks over Blake Lewis), the Season 5 contest (Taylor Hicks over Katherine McPhee), and the Season 4 contest (Carrie Underwood over Bo Bice) all show a preference for the more conservative finalist emerging victorious, more often than not with the help of the third-place finisher's votes.

In Season 4, Underwood led from the beginning - producers later revealed that she had won each week handily.

In Season 5, the bulk of third-place finisher Elliot Yamin's votes likely tipped the scales for Hicks - they were far more likely to go to Hicks than to McPhee.

In Season 6, third-place finisher Melinda Doolittle's voters likely felt much more comfortable with Jordin Sparks than they did with Blake Lewis.

In Season 7, it's apparent that the bulk of third-place finisher Syesha Mercado's votes moved to David Cook, propelling him to a stunning 12 million-vote upset victory over Archuleta, the judges' clear favorite.

Next: Is there a geographic slant to the contest winners?

Cook was born in Houston, Texas, while Archuleta was born in Miami, Florida.

Sparks was born in Phoenix, Arizona, while Lewis was born in Redmond, Washington.

Hicks was born in Birmingham, Alabama, while McPhee was born in Los Angeles, California.

And Underwood was born in Muskogee, Oklahoma, while Bice was born in Huntsville, Alabama.

So in every contest where someone from the more culturally conservative part of the country was pitted against someone from one of the more liberal coastal areas the conservative won.

Why the preference for the more conservative finalist?

It's a simple question of demographics - audience demographics, that is.

The American Idol audience is overwhelmingly white, female, and middle-aged or older.

It should be no surprise that, given a choice, this audience will select the more conservative finalist.

Lambert gets this. How else to explain his visit last week to the Marine Corps Air Station at Miramar - "Fightertown, USA" - where he entertained the crowd with an a capella version of the National Anthem while standing in front of a 20-foot tall American flag? It was a shameless play for the affections of the pro-military, patriotic Idol audience. But he'll have a tough time overcoming his guyliner and dark fingernail polish.

Allen gets it, too. He made sure to be filmed riding in an open-backed car with his new wife Katy - a former Homecoming Queen at the University of Arkansas - during a parade in his honor.

One final thought: Where will Danny Gokey's votes go - to Lambert, or to Allen?

Allen and Gokey are similar performers, while Lambert is unique.

And then there's the geography thing there, too - Gokey is from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in the American heartland.

So I'm betting Gokey's votes go to Allen - the bulk of them, anyway.

As you watch tonight's finale, and listen to the judges rave about Lambert's performance, keep this in mind:

Kris Allen hails from Conway, Arkansas.

Adam Lambert was born in Los Angeles, California, and was raised in San Diego.

Get out the trophy now, and start chiseling Kris Allen's name into it. Like Johnson, Wallace and Nunn before him, this southerner is going to grab the third-place finisher's votes and leapfrog past the frontrunner to victory.