In the Right

Four weeks ago, Christie's lead among likely GOP primary voters was just nine points, at 46-37 percent in the Q Poll, and many -- myself included -- were sounding the alarms.

"Don't worry," I was told then by a senior Christie campaign strategist. "We haven't begun to spend our money."

I worried anyway.

As a conservative with ties to New Jersey, I had been looking forward to a fall general election campaign where the Democrats would be on the defensive for the first time since the 2002 U.S. Senate campaign, and I feared a Christie upset loss to Lonegan would negate that possibility.

Shortly after that exchange with the Christie strategist, the two campaigns had to file their 29-day Reports -- finance reports filed with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission -- and reveal how much they had raised, spent, and (most importantly) still had on hand.

Christie's report showed that he had more than $3 million left to spend, while Lonegan's showed that he had spent his money early and had only $481,000 cash on hand for the final four weeks of the contest.

Christie's campaign took advantage of its overpowering financial lead.

Over the course of the last month, Christie's campaign has been on radio, in the mail, and on the phones.

About 10 percent of the mail has been purely negative, attacking Lonegan over his plan to replace the state's (very) progressive income tax structure with a flat tax; about 40 percent has been purely positive (one particularly nice piece featured Rep. Christopher H. Smith -- a noted pro-life hero in New Jersey -- along with Steve Forbes and former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, each offering his own pro-Christie blurb, with nary a word to be said about Lonegan); and roughly half the mail has been contrast, with a pro-Christie message on one side of the piece, and a whack against Lonegan on the other.

The paid phone program -- the robocalls that so many complain about, but which are still deemed effective by most campaign professionals (else why would they continue to use them? It's not like there's a huge consultant profit margin built into a $50,000 paid phone program) -- has been almost exclusively positive.

And the electronic advertising -- mostly radio, with some cable television thrown in -- has been about 50 percent positive, and 50 percent contrast.

The focus of most of the activity has been the Lonegan tax plan.

That Lonegan's tax plan would, if enacted, result in a net tax reduction for the state's taxpayers is not, to my knowledge, in dispute.

That's why Arthur Laffer -- the guy who drew a curve on the back of a cocktail napkin and forever changed the course of Western history -- recently endorsed Lonegan's plan.

But Christie's campaign has, nevertheless, succeeded in hanging the "tax hiker" sign -- always an albatross in a GOP primary campaign -- around Lonegan's neck.

Team Christie did this by focusing on a big number -- 70 percent -- and associating it with the words "tax increase."

That big number represents the percentage of New Jersey taxpayers who would, according to one study, see their income taxes increased under Lonegan's plan.

And while Lonegan disputes the exact number, he acknowledges the fact that his plan would raise taxes a little bit on a whole lot of people, even as it cut taxes by an awful lot for a smaller group of people.

So when the Christie campaign spends an awful lot of money to advertise "Steve Lonegan's plan will raise taxes on 70 percent of New Jerseyans," and there's no effective pushback by the Lonegan campaign, it's perfectly reasonable for an only-partially-interested voter to deduce that Lonegan is, in fact, a tax hiker.

Moreover, the subliminal messaging -- with phrases like "70 percent" and "tax increase" emphasized, over a photo of Lonegan -- is that Lonegan plans to hike your taxes by 70 percent. Tax hiker alert!

Now, before anybody goes off saying I'm accusing the Christie campaign of doing something unethical, or immoral, or illegal, I am not. They have crossed no lines, either ethically, or morally, or legally.

They may be close enough to those lines that they can peer over them, and see the abyss opening up right in front of them, but they have not crossed them.

I am accusing them of running a smart campaign, doing what they can with what they have to project an unflattering image of their opponent.

Their advertising has made a difference.

According to the Monmouth University polling data, among the 33 percent of GOP voters who identify themselves as "very conservative" -- what should be Lonegan's bread and butter -- Lonegan's lead over Christie is just 15 points, at 51-36 percent.

But among the 36 percent of the electorate who call themselves "somewhat conservative," Christie leads Lonegan by a more robust 56-28 percent, and among the 28 percent who identify themselves as "moderate," Christie leads by a whopping 58-18 percent.

That Lonegan should only be winning half of those who call themselves "very conservative" is telling.

Something else that has made a difference is the debates and media coverage of the campaign.

While most likely GOP primary voters likely missed the first statewide debate between Christie and Lonegan -- it was broadcast on the New Jersey Network, New Jersey's Public Broadcasting System affiliate -- they probably would have heard about the debate that took place on Saturday, aired on Sunday in Philadelphia and New York.

That was the debate where Lonegan inexplicably said that as governor, he would be willing to accept terrorist suspects from Guantanamo Bay in New Jersey.

It's a shame for the Christie campaign that the second debate -- and Lonegan's inexplicable gaffe -- took place as late as it did.

If it had happened earlier, Team Christie could have destroyed the Lonegan candidacy by simply advertising Lonegan's statement on accepting suspected Gitmo terrorists.

They never would have had to engage over taxes at all.

They could have appealed to conservatives on the national security front, flanking Lonegan on the right while at the same time setting up a contrast that would have helped them for the fall campaign against Corzine.

As it is, Team Christie is looking good. With just 13 days left in the primary, and no more one-on-one debate contests to provide an opportunity for the kind of major gaffe that can close a gap overnight, it appears as if Christie can begin planning for the general election.