In the Right

Davis -- then California's embattled Democratic Governor -- threw $10 million onto the California airwaves in the spring of 2002, in what appears to have been a successful attempt to influence the outcome of the GOP primary: Instead of facing the moderate Republican Mayor of Los Angeles, Richard Riordan, in the general election, Davis's ads helped sink Riordan and deliver victory instead to conservative Bill Simon, who Davis then went on to defeat.

Such a move would make sense. In the Quinnipiac University poll released two days ago, Corzine registers the lowest-ever approval ratings for a New Jersey Governor: He's at 37 percent approval, against 54 percent disapproval.

Among Democrats, he registers a weak 61-28 percent approve/disapprove rating; among Republicans, a to-be-expected 13-83 percent approve/disapprove rating.

But among the Independents who usually decide New Jersey statewide contests, his approve/disapprove rating is a toxic 32-62 percent.

When Independents in New Jersey are breaking against a Democratic Governor by a 2-to-1 margin, there's trouble brewing.

Corzine can't fall back on his personal charm to weather the storm, either.

Unlike, say, Ronald Reagan, whose personal favorability ratings remained solid even as his job approval rating dropped in tough times, Corzine's personal numbers are only slightly better: He registers an overall 39 percent favorable rating, against a 50 percent unfavorable.

Corzine's strategic difficulty arises from one simple fact: He's a well-known commodity in New Jersey.

And he should be.

He's run two statewide campaigns in the last nine years (in 2000, he won the race for the seat vacated by Sen. Frank Lautenberg; in 2005, he jumped from the U.S. Senate to Drumthwacket, the New Jersey Governor's mansion).

In the course of those two campaigns, he spent roughly $100 million of his own money to plaster the state with wall-to-wall campaign ads.

In addition to the name ID built up by all that paid media, he's also reaped the benefits of victory -- taxpayer-funded staff and earned media any time he wanted it for the last eight-plus years.

For most incumbents, that's a good thing.

But when the numbers go south, it becomes very difficult to turn them around.

Experience says Corzine will have a very difficult time turning around his own numbers in the months remaining before the November election.

So his options are limited -- running a positive campaign will do him little good.

So, look for him to go negative against the eventual Republican nominee.

And though he's in trouble, don't for a moment think that a governor who is upside-down on his favorable/unfavorable rating, or on his job approval rating, cannot win reelection.

(Hot Rod R. Blagojevich pulled off that feat in Illinois in his 2006 reelection campaign -- upside-down in job approval and personal favorables, Blagojevich outspent his opponent by almost 3-to-1, and turned the race from a referendum on himself (which he would have lost) into a referendum on his opponent. And because he aired three negative ads for every one she did, he beat her by double digits.)

Conventional wisdom says Corzine would rather run against Lonegan, a former Bogota mayor, in the fall, because Lonegan would be easier to caricature as an out-of-the-mainstream conservative.

Lonegan's supporters say that's balderdash, that Lonegan is the Republican with the better chance of beating Corzine precisely because he offers the greatest ideological contrast.

And, truth be told, there's something to that -- all other things being equal, a greater contrast offers a challenger a better chance of victory.

But all things are not equal.

And knowing the team around Corzine as I do (I managed two statewide campaigns against them earlier this decade, and they beat the pants off our campaigns both times), I can say this to my conservative friends in New Jersey: Trust me, Corzine's team is pulling for Lonegan to beat Christie in the primary. And not because they fear Christie any more than they fear Lonegan (Steve DeMicco, Corzine's lead consultant, doesn't fear anyone), but because Lonegan would fit much more simply into the construct ("right wing extremist," "outside the mainstream") into which they try to force GOP opponents.

So, back to Corzine, who's got to go negative if he is to win.

The only real question is, when will he go negative?

He could do the usual thing, and wait until the fall.

Or he could go negative against Christie right now, and set up one of two possible outcomes:

Either Christie emerges from the GOP primary bloodied and softened up, with high negatives; or Christie doesn't emerge at all from the GOP primary, and Lonegan does battle in the fall.

Either way, it's a win for Corzine.

Corzine has won both of his statewide contests by running enormously expensive campaigns that featured brutally negative ads.

It's what his team knows how to do, and they do it very well.

And when the only tool in your tool box is a hammer, every problem begins to look like a nail.

So don't be surprised if Team Corzine decides to start hammering Christie before the June 2 GOP primary.