In the Right

This Newark Star-Ledger piece by Josh Margolin confirms rumors that swirled through the Garden State over the summer -- the Obama political operation in the White House was seriously considering dumping embattled incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, and replacing him on the ballot with someone they deemed more electable.

A White House envoy was dispatched to New Jersey to conduct conversations with potential replacement candidates, including State Senate President Dick Codey.

This revelation follows by about six weeks the revelation that the Obama political operation went through the same calculation regarding embattled New York Gov. David A. Paterson -- except that in the case of Paterson, the White House went so far as to actually inform the governor that it was the president's desire that he abandon his bid for election.

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie spent a lot of time this summer and fall in places New Jersey Republicans don't usually spend time -- and where New Jersey Republicans typically don't do that well when it comes time for elections.

Camden, Essex, and Hudson counties -- home to Camden, Newark, and Jersey City, respectively -- are considered the three corners of the Democratic stool in New Jersey.

Together, they typically provide a Democratic candidate running for statewide office a 140,000-vote cushion.

But Christie decided early on to make a play for the votes of these city dwellers, based largely on shared support for increased educational opportunity for inner city children trapped in failing schools.

It's not often that one gets proof that a supposedly hare-brained supposition -- so wild, it was seen by some as evidence of an obsession bordering on paranoia -- actually was taking place.

It is rarer still when one gets the proof just a few months after the supposition was first made public.

So consider me delighted to point you in the direction of this blockbuster piece by the Newark Star-Ledger's Josh Margolin, which reveals for the first time that, in fact, the Obama White House was so concerned over the summer about New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's faltering campaign that senior Obama strategists considered dumping Corzine and replacing him with Senate President/former Acting Governor Dick Codey -- as I suggested they might, way back on July 9.

Democrats went to some length in their consideration of options -- at one point, according to Margolin, they commissioned a poll testing possible replacements against GOP nominee Chris Christie.

With less than 24 hours to go before the polls open, campaign insiders are getting phone calls from reporters and major donors and hangers-on, and the standard response to "What's your best bet?" is "I swear, it all depends on turnout -- really."

In New Jersey this year, that line has the added value of actually being truthful.

The final pre-election Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey of the 2009 New Jersey governor's race is out, and it shows a 7-point swing over the last five days away from incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and toward GOP nominee Chris Christie.

Last week's survey release showed a 5-point, 43-38 percent Corzine advantage over Christie; today's survey shows a 2-point, 42-40 percent Christie lead over Corzine.

I wrote about it last week. PolitickerNJ's Wally Edge warned about it yesterday. And this morning, Harry Hurley, South Jersey's most influential talk radio host, says he received "more than a hundred emails from angry Eagles fans" who didn't make it to Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field in time to see what he labeled "perhaps the finest half of Eagles football in the Andy Reid era" -- and it's a safe bet that for every email Harry received, there were another 100 angry fans who didn't email.

Their gripe? Barack Obama's final-weekend visit to Camden to shore up the faltering campaign of Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine.

The Obama motorcade shut down the Walt Whitman Bridge -- the principal artery between South Jersey and Philadelphia -- and sections of Interstate 42 yesterday afternoon, long in advance of Obama's scheduled 12:55 PM arrival at the Philadelphia airport.

In my last post, I examined the odd twist to this year's Jon Corzine self-funding drama -- that unlike previous years, Corzine is loaning millions of dollars to his campaign committee, rather than simply donating the funds outright.

This, I explained, could, if Corzine wins reelection next Tuesday, create a massive conflict of interest problem, where virtually every entity in the state capable of writing a $25,000 check to the New Jersey Democratic State Committee could feel pressured to kick in a huge contribution, for the purpose of retiring Corzine's personal debt.

Here's the kicker:

Is Jon Corzine setting himself up for the Mother of All Conflicts of Interest?

A check of Corzine's fundraising reports, on file with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission, reveals an odd twist to the story of a man who's now spent more than $130 million of his own money in pursuit of higher office -- he's now looking for payback from his campaign committee after the election.

Corzine's most recent ELEC filings reveal that unlike his campaign efforts in 2000 and 2005, when he simply wrote a personal check and donated it to the campaign, this time around he is writing personal checks and loaning the money to his campaign.

He loaned his campaign $2 million on October 19, $1.2 million on October 26, and another $1.5 million on October 27. Grand total: $4.7 million to date.

Thus, Corzine, if he wins reelection next Tuesday, will be the first New Jersey Governor in anyone's memory to have a personal financial stake in the success of his campaign committee's fundraising.

This morning's survey release by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute is the best news Chris Christie has had in a long time. While he hasn't yet closed the deal -- he'll need five more days of hard, error-free campaigning to do that -- the greatest threat to his victory is on its way to becoming a spent force. The race for governor of New Jersey is, once again, his to lose.

That lede might upset the team running the campaign of embattled Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. After all, they might think that Corzine's first significant lead of the year -- at 43-38 percent over Christie, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett drawing 13 percent of the vote -- would be cause for celebration.

It will be. But for Christie, not for Corzine.

"New York 23" ... Them's fightin' words.

These days, whether you're a conservative activist, or a Republican Party official, saying "New York 23" out loud leads to a shortening of breath, a quickening of the pulse, and a tightening of the muscles. Heads whip around to see who said it, and in what context -- friend, or foe?

With less than a week to go before the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, tempers are flaring on the campaign trail -- and fingers are being pointed in, and at, a big white building at 320 First Street SE.

UPDATED

Barack Obama wants to help Jon Corzine win in New Jersey — so he’s coming back one more time. But will it, in fact, help?

Data from a Monmouth University/Gannett poll, conducted Oct. 15-18, suggests it might not — depending on how you look at it, and who’s doing the looking.

According to the survey, President Obama’s job approval rating in New Jersey is 53 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove. That’s a net plus-14 on the job approval rating. On the face of it, it looks like it would be a good move to bring him in.

But a closer look at the data reveals that among the few undecided voters remaining in the race, his job approval ratings are a bit lower — 44 percent approve, 35 percent disapprove. So that net plus-14 among all likely voters is only a net plus-9 among undecided voters. And his approval rating among those key undecided voters is less than 50 percent. So it looks like it’s still a good idea, but a bit less of one.