In the Right

A new Marist poll released yesterday suggests that a Rudy Giuliani vs. Kirsten Gillibrand matchup for a U.S. Senate seat from New York would go to the former New York City Mayor, by a hefty margin -- he leads her by 54-40 percent in a hypothetical 2010 contest, according to the latest survey.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows Giuliani trailing potential Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo by a margin of 53-43 percent in a hypothetical 2010 contest for governor.

This backs up the argument I made in this piece yesterday, that Giuliani's apparent decision to pass on the Governor's race -- and give up a chance at a job for which he would be well suited, to run instead for a job that would likely drive him crazy -- is largely a function of his belief that he would have an easier time winning a contest for the U.S. Senate than for the governorship.

Could Rudy Giuliani be planning to run for president in 2012 -- by winning a Senate seat in 2010?

Consider: Earlier this afternoon, New York newspapers went gaga over reports that, first, Giuliani had informed political allies he would not run for governor in 2010, and second, that he would run for the Senate instead, against freshman Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Now consider: Giuliani, the ultimate alpha male, is a chief executive. Decision-making is his greatest talent; thoughtful deliberation, not so much. Rapidly assessing options, making decisions, and then taking action is his stock in trade; pondering over weighty arguments, or even engaging in debate, is ... not something for which he is well known.

Moreover, raising money for a campaign for governor of New York would be far, far easier for Giuliani than would raising money for a Senate race -- which, after all, is regulated by federal law, with a relatively low individual maximum contribution, while a governor's contest is regulated by far looser state-level fundraising restrictions.

"You're in charge of communications for a congressional campaign. Your candidate is frugal, perhaps to a fault, and doesn't want to spend a penny of the hard-won dollars he gained by working the phones. You need a poll, but he doesn't want to pay for one.

"There's a local state Senate candidate who's getting ready to go into the field. Granted, the state Senate district isn't an exact match for the congressional district, but it's about 2/3 of the same territory, so, if you squint and tilt your head just so, you might be able to think you see results that would be somewhere near the ballpark of a real poll.

"So you piggyback on the local state Senate candidate's poll -- you buy a couple of questions. And it shows that, in that part of the congressional district that overlaps with the state senate district, you're competitive with the congressman you're challenging.

"Now, here's the question -- now that you've got this data back, a) is it useful to you at all, b) if so, how? and c) would you ever, in a million years, release it to the public as evidence that you're competitive with the congressman you're challenging, without acknowledging right up front that the data is based on a survey sample that was compiled for someone else's survey, and that it doesn't include all portions of the congressional district?

Upstate New York congressional candidate Doug Hoffman would need a miracle just to get into recount range, yet by "unconceding" his loss in the special election, that seems to be what he's counting on.

Let's walk through the numbers.

When the day began Tuesday, there were 7,419 absentee ballots whose votes had not yet been added to the candidates' totals, and the gap separating Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman from Democratic Party candidate Bill Owens was 3,176 votes.

By mid-afternoon, three counties had tabulated their results:

In Oneida County, Hoffman picked up 446 votes, Owens picked up 219, and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava picked up 97.

In Madison County, Hoffman picked up 170 votes, Owens picked up 203, and

CORRECTION:

One of the things that's always bothered me most about political journalism is when media types make a mistake, honest or otherwise, but then refuse to acknowledge and correct it when it's called to their attention. As a guy who used to get paid to, among other things, track what the media was saying on a regular basis, it drove me crazy when I found mistakes in copy about my candidates -- but failed to get the reporter to fix the mistake properly.

On Tuesday night, I made an error as I was preparing a piece on the count of absentee ballots in NY23. It wasn't a particularly sophisticated error -- in fact, it was a simple error of transposition, in which I inadvertently turned a 1 into a 7 and a 7 into a 1. Unfortunately, those inadvertently switched numbers formed the basis for what became the blog post below, suggesting that Doug Hoffman just might get mighty close to recount territory.

The difference in the candidates' totals was 3,176. With the transposed numbers back in their proper place, I can safely project that in order even to get into recount range, Doug Hoffman would need a miracle far larger than the Miracle on Ice I referenced.

I want to thank the two faithful readers who brought the mistake to my attention for doing so in such a gracious way.

What follows is the original blog post, error intact:

Calling Al Michaels -- New York 23 May Need You

If the rest of the yet-to-be-counted absentee ballots go the way the first three counties' results do, we're in for a recount in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District.

When the day began, there were 7,419 absentee ballots whose votes had not yet been added to the candidates' totals, and the gap separating Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman from Democratic Party candidate Bill Owens was a paltry 3,716 votes.

By mid-afternoon, three counties had tabulated their results:

In Oneida County, Hoffman picked up 446 votes, Owens picked up 219, and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava picked up 97.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin isn't the only major political player with a demonstrated ability and willingness to wander off her party leadership's reservation -- even as her self-parodying-entitled book goes on sale across the country, New Yorkers can watch up close and personal as their very own rogue, embattled Gov. David A. Paterson, struts his rogueness.

The issue? The Obama administration's decision to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed and four other alleged Sept. 11 plotters in New York City.

Interviewed last night, Paterson indicated he's not a fan of Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr.'s decision to hold the trial in lower Manhattan: "This is not a decision that I would have made ... New York was very much the epicenter of that attack," Paterson said. "It's very painful; we're still having trouble getting over it. We still haven't been able to rebuild that site, and having those terrorists tried so close to the attack is going to be an encumbrance on all ... New Yorkers."

Standing up to the Obama administration isn't something most Democrats feel all that comfortable doing. Yet.

So why would Paterson publicly break with Obama?

Does anybody at the Republican National Committee understand how insurance works?

Based on the events of late last week -- when the RNC acknowledged that for the last 18 years, its standard benefit employee health insurance plan had covered abortion services, and RNC Chairman Michael Steele moved to get ahead of a brewing pro-life storm by ordering that the insurance policies be amended to drop that particular coverage -- it's a fair question.

Let's back up a moment.

On Thursday, Politico revealed that since 1991, the Republican National Committee had offered as a part of its standard employee benefits package a health insurance policy that included coverage for elective abortion services.

Should the United States seek the death penalty for Khalid Sheik Mohammed and the other four terrorists involved in carrying out the 9/11 attacks?

Attorney General Eric Holder says he will seek the death penalty as "an indication, I think, of how serious I view these cases, how negative the consequences of their actions were and how they must face the ultimate justice."

I am a strong proponent of the death penalty. To those who question its effectiveness as a deterrent, I remind them of the case of one William Horton, who, because he was not executed following his conviction for the first-degree murder of 17-year-old Joey Fournier, was alive to decide not to go back to the penitentiary in Massachusetts after a weekend furlough, and instead abscond to Maryland, where he committed heinous crimes against Cliff and Angie Barnes, for which, upon his conviction in Maryland, his sentencing judge declared that, contrary to the treatment of convicted murderers in Massachusetts, Horton would only leave the Maryland penitentiary "in a pine box."

This Newark Star-Ledger piece by Josh Margolin confirms rumors that swirled through the Garden State over the summer -- the Obama political operation in the White House was seriously considering dumping embattled incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, and replacing him on the ballot with someone they deemed more electable.

A White House envoy was dispatched to New Jersey to conduct conversations with potential replacement candidates, including State Senate President Dick Codey.

This revelation follows by about six weeks the revelation that the Obama political operation went through the same calculation regarding embattled New York Gov. David A. Paterson -- except that in the case of Paterson, the White House went so far as to actually inform the governor that it was the president's desire that he abandon his bid for election.

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie spent a lot of time this summer and fall in places New Jersey Republicans don't usually spend time -- and where New Jersey Republicans typically don't do that well when it comes time for elections.

Camden, Essex, and Hudson counties -- home to Camden, Newark, and Jersey City, respectively -- are considered the three corners of the Democratic stool in New Jersey.

Together, they typically provide a Democratic candidate running for statewide office a 140,000-vote cushion.

But Christie decided early on to make a play for the votes of these city dwellers, based largely on shared support for increased educational opportunity for inner city children trapped in failing schools.