There are no perfect election simulators or predictions. Otherwise, we wouldn't be burdened by such minor afflictions as voting. But that hasn't stopped many from trying. The pollsters are most infamous for gaming election match-ups, with varying degrees of success this cycle.Combining the latest polling data, Election-Projection.net does its best to forecast how the contest between John McCain and Barack Obama will play out. Based on the polls, both state and national, the site says Obama has a 95.8% chance of winning. I suppose that's fair to say, as they say, if the election were held today. The site has some great features and I'll definitely add it to my bookmarks, though a few of the state probability meters did catch my attention (not in a good way). For instance:
McCain has less than a 10% chance of winning Pennsylvania and Colorado? And less than a 25% chance of taking New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Ohio? These are zero sum estimates, so I can't fault them too much. After all, McCain could win 49% of the vote in Pennsylvania, but that's still a "loss."
Of course, if you disagree with the site's rankings, you can enter your own probability numbers with their interactive feature.
![[RSS]](http://67.192.49.194/templates/images/rss_icon.gif){kind=icon}
Post A Comment