The Expectations Game

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As Indiana and North Carolina voters head to the polls, most have their expectations set on narrow Clinton win in Indiana and a larger Obama victory in North Carolina. Does a 1-5 point Clinton win coupled with a 5-12 point Obama win increase the pressure on Clinton to dropout? Or, will any version of a split decision be enough for Clinton to continue?

The New Republic's Issac Chotiner says exit polls could affect how the media interpret the final results:

Remember, the night before Pennsylvania, many in the media were saying that a nine point Clinton win would not be so bad for Obama. Of course when the exit polls showed an even race at 5pm, all the pundits began to write Clinton off, only to later argue that Obama had disappointed.

Hot Air's Ed Morrissey notes that the Clinton campaign is now 'lowering expectations" for North Carolina, saying a 15 point Obama victory is possible:

We can expect plenty of expectation-setting today, but this is ridiculous. If Hillary dropped seven points overnight, she will have some explaining to do, regardless of how she performs in Indiana.

And Big Tent Democrat says it will be nearly impossible for Obama to lose North Carolina but that such a loss would signal a sea change in the campaign:

I wrote that Barack Obama can win the nomination today by sweeping North Carolina and Indiana. But the reality is Obama can not lose in North Carolina. If he does, then he is in serious serious trouble. Why? Because in order to lose North Carolina, Obama will have to garner less than 30% of the white vote.

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