Chuck Todd over at NBC's First Read
outlined the electoral map match-ups as they stand today in the possible general election match-ups. Both scenarios show a race that will likely be very close, maybe even tied when all is said and done. It also illustrates why it has been so difficult for either Clinton, McCain or Obama to convincingly make the case that they are the "most electable" candidate. Here's the standings, as Todd sees them:
Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)
Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)
The American Spectator's
Philip Klein was on the Hillary Clinton conference call this morning and shares this response from Howard Wolfson to the NBC states map:
Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson pointed to the First Read
analysis of the electoral map, and argued that not only is she slightly
ahead of Obama in electoral votes of states either firmly in her pocket
or leaning her way, but she's much stronger in the toss-up states.
Jim Geraghty looks deeper into the Clinton vs. Obama electability argument.
Over at MyDD,
Jonathan Singer says Obama's cash advantage won't guarantee him state victories, but it will allow him to put more states in play, compared to a publicly financed candidate.
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