Ground Game

George Will writes in his Newsweek column on how former Bob Barr could be to John McCain what Ralph Nader was to Al Gore in 2000 if the former Georgia congressman wins the Libertarian Party presidential nomination. The notion of a Barr presidential run has been picking up steam in libertarian circles and some blogs, but I think the estimation of his potential impact is greatly exaggerated.

First, Will cites the past presidential runs of George Wallace and Nader, and notes the highly successful fundraising efforts of Ron Paul in this year's Republican primary. The comparison is flawed at best. As Will himself notes, Wallace had three things going for him that Barr does not:

Wallace had the three traits that, when combined, make a third-party candidate formidable. He had a burning issue (national disorder that he blamed on the civil-rights revolution), a regional base (the South) and a vivid personality.

When Nader ran in 2000 he was a nationally recognized figure with more than 30 years of public service, best-selling books, and had the benefit of competing against an Al Gore campaign that many viewed as subpar in an election many also thought didn't matter.

Ron Paul did in fact raise a lot of money over the past year, but he didn't win enough votes to affect the Republican primaries in meaningful way, like Mike Huckabee did. Also, it wasn't Paul's libertarian views that drew his large swaths of supporters and "money bombs," it was his anti-war sentiment. Barr may also oppose the war, but he won't appeal to liberal and anti-war constituencies in the same way Paul did and continues to do so. Paul also manged to fend off a recent challenge to his Texas congressional seat, while Barr lost his in 2002.

I think most libertarians know if they really wanted to run a strong Libertarian Party candidate this year, that candidate would be Ron Paul. And even then, his true electoral impact would be minimal. But the money he could raise for building up the LP, would be very significant. But Paul has already ruled out a second run on the Libertarian ticket (he was their nominee in 1988).

Reason's Dave Weigel looks more at what Barr's candidacy might mean for the Libertarian Party and Stacy McCain interviews Barr over at the American Spectator website.