It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee -- and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated.
Additionally, some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate.So, what the poll seems to be actually illustrating is something anyone following the campaign is already acutely aware of: the longer the Democratic nomination fight continues, the greater the animosity between the Clinton/Obama camps. Rather than actual defections to the Republican side, Democrats are likely more concerned with eroding enthusiasm as the nomination fight becomes more contentious.
Most conservative blogs are happy with the poll numbers, but also not taking them too seriously.
Just One Minute's Tom Maguire puts it this way:
It is easier for elderly and working class whites to defect to the war hero than it is for blacks and hipsters to defect to the old white guy.
While Real Clear Politics' Heather Wilhelm notes the assumption that most conservatives are expected to vote for McCain even if he wasn't their first choice.
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