Ground Game

Fred Thompson's campaign has been denying last night's story from the Politico, which cites sources "close" to the former senator claiming he will drop out of the presidential race and endorse John McCain if he doesn't finish at least second tonight in Iowa.

Thompson adviser Mary Matalin just told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell that Thompson “unequivocally” denies the rumor and will not drop out no matter what happens in Iowa tonight.

If the Thompson story falls apart, it would be a tough mark for the paper which last March incorrectly reported that John Edwards was dropping out of the race.

However, the story has already likely damaged Thompson, whether it was accurately reported or not. Conservative blog Red State jumps to Thompson's defense, refuting the Politico piece in two separate posts. Red State's Erik Erickson outlines the path to a successful Thompson nomination run:

Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire before winning South Carolina and coming back. Fred has the online support. He's going to do better than people expect in Iowa (he actually is). Huckabee is going to beat Romney today so those two are going to fight like drag queens wearing the same dress to a party. Fred needs to leverage these three things and go to South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Red State diarist Pejman Yousefzadeh bucks the polls and predicts a Thompson victory in Iowa:

Thompson: 22

Romney: 21

Huckabee: 20

McCain: 17

Paul: 11

Giuliani: 9