Ground Game

I recently had the chance to interview Georgetown University Professor and author Christopher C. Hull about his new book, “Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents.”

Mr. Hull has been studying the Iowa caucuses for years and offered some insights on tonight’s voting, along with how the political blogs have helped reshape the process.

Although there have been a number of developments in the days since we spoke, Hull’s breakdown of the three leading Democratic candidates sounds about right.

Hull says Obama “has the right idea,” in his approach to campaigning in Iowa and is “well-positioned to win,” the caucuses which are about to begin in just over an hour.

Even with the recent Obama surge, Hull still thinks Hillary Clinton is“likely to do very well” in Iowa. “I still see her ultimately winning the nomination,” Hull said, despite the favorable trends for Obama in Iowa and New Hampshire, where most polls have him now leading Clinton.

However, Hull was less enthusiastic about John Edwards, saying his trends have been “almost a mirror image of Clinton’s,” with poll numbers “slowly trending downward,” despite his large turnout at recent campaign rallies.

Hull’s observations have added weight because he correctly predicted the final results in Iowa back in 2004. He said his statistical model allowed him to make the ’04 prediction in advance of caucus night, but that this year’s field is too competitive for him to make a similar public prediction.

Nonetheless, he did predict that if current trends continue, Obama is “positioned to win New Hampshire if he wins Iowa.”

On the Republican side, he said the “thing to watch,” is how Mitt Romney’s traditional organizational support fares against Mike Huckabee’s largely grassroots effort. Hull says his research shows that part of Huckabee’s support has come from voter fatigue with Romney’s massive spending and advertising blitz in the state.

“What you really need in Iowa is narrow-casting,” Hull said, adding that retail politicking almost always trumps media saturation in Iowa. “Spending is inversely proportional relative to what you see elsewhere.”