As the remaining field of Republican candidates hit the ground in Florida for their party’s first closed primary, bloggers try to decipher the polls and decide if John McCain has become the frontrunner. Still, with the results more than a week away, it’s a great understatement to note that “anything can happen.” And to that end, the blogger predictions are all over the map.
Captain’s Quarters is predicting a Giuliani victory in Florida:
It's tailor-made for him, with plenty of Northeastern retirees and an active Cuban-American base that wants to see hard-nosed policy rather than moderation. If that happens, we can forget clarification, and Super Tuesday becomes a delegate hunt, pure and simple, with everyone viable and a brokered convention more and more likely.
How should the field target their message? David Knowles writes at AOL’s Political Machine:
By and large, if you're hoping to win Florida, keep talking about how you plan to save the economy. In specific, tell us what you plan to do to improve the outlook for housing. That's the big issue.
While NRO’s Jim Geraghty sees a slight McCain edge in the polls and wonders about this morning’s Drudge Report flash item about a new Rasmussen poll showing Mitt Romney in the lead:
It's not that I don't believe it, so much as I'm not sure what's happened that would trigger a mini-Mitt surge.
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