Ground Game

In the previous post, I mentioned at least one Red State blogger prediction an Iowa victory for Fred Thompson tonight.

Fellow conservative blogger John Hinderaker over at Powerline predicts a Romney victory in Iowa, followed by a McCain win in New Hampshire.

Weekly Standard’s Richelieu, who may or may not be long-time GOP strategist Mike Murphy, says Huckabee will edge out Romney by less than a point, while McCain will get the strong third place showing his campaign is hoping for. He also predicts an Obama victory tonight by seven points, with Clinton finishing third.

Red State has also weighed in on the Democrats, predicting a narrow victory for Edwards over Obama, and Clinton pacing a few points behind in third place.

Most liberal bloggers have been more reserved about their predictions, but a few have weighed in, often with detailed disclaimers explaining their educated guesses.

Daily Kos separates his predictions into "Entrance poll" numbers and "Final results," with Obama coming out first in both. In fact, he sees an upward tick for Obama once supporters of candidates who receive less than 15 percent of the vote are asked to give their second choice candidates.

Open Left’s Chris Bowers also predicts an Obama victory

MyDD’s Jerome Aromstrong goes with Obama as well, but notes he is personally pulling for Edwards, a sentiment that seems to be shared by a plurality of progressive bloggers.

Finally, over at the Huffington Post, pollster John Zogby has revised his own caucus fallout theory. Originally, Zogby said Edwards could not survive a third place finish in Iowa. However, Zogby now says that might not be the case if the top three finishers are within a few points of each other:

This race could stay very close and we may emerge with all three as viable candidates going into New Hampshire