The latest mid-term election prediction from the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland: Democrats are going to have some tough contests in 2010, that doesn't mean Republicans are going to take over the House.
Jennifer Bendery of Roll Call reports that Van Hollen told Thursday's Bloomberg Washington Summit: "People who think this is a redux of 1994 are totally misreading the current situation."
That, of course, is the year that Democrats lost their majority in the House for the first time in four decades.
Given that recent polling shows that just 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, a drop of 8 percentage points from the 2008 elections, according to Van Hollen. "To suggest that the Republicans are going to run to the rescue of the American people who think they're the answer, at least as we sit here a year out, is very wrong," he said.
That 20 percent figure is a reference to this Washington Post poll; the relevant question is near the bottom, No. 901.
But there have been other polls that show a much less favorable landscape for Democrats, including this recent survey from Pew showing a general "throw 'em all out" sentiment, and this Gallup Poll showing the "generic ballot" edge shrinking.
Van Hollen told the Bloomberg event that the final vote on a health care overhaul will be a major factor in next year's electionsl.
"The political fortunes of the entire caucus are tied together in getting this passed," said Van Hollen. Failure to pass the health care overhaul would "damage Democrats' prospects in the next election" and "show a failure to deliver" on a promise made in many Members' campaigns.
In the meantime, Van Hollen said, Democrats need to do a better job explaining what the bill does. "I think we have work to do in that area," he said, pointing to key provisions in the bill that he views as receiving too little attention, such as changes to the incentive structure in Medicare and bundling of payments. "We've not done a good enough job of getting the word out on those issues."
CQ Politics currently rates 10 House seats to be tossups, and rates 34 more districts to be leaning toward one party but still extremely competitive.
To follow all the 2010 races, check out our election map.
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Comments
Van Hollen is spining so fast he could give the teacup ride at Disneyland a race for their money. Even Maryland Governor - Bid D. Is going to lose. What a mistake MD voters made in not electing Ehrlich. Fool me once...follo me twice...never. O'Malley is OUT and Van Hollen will probably only win by 3-5pts. Thats doom in MD.
Posted by: dante805
| November 13, 2009 7:42 AM
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