The Eye

The November 2010 election will be the first time Reid will face voters since he became leader of the Senate Democrats, and his Republican foes have tried to paint him as increasingly out of touch with the state's voters.

The last time a Senate Democratic leader faced voters was in 2004, when South Dakota's Tom Daschle was ousted by Republican John Thune.

Reid may be taking heart in a fundamental difference between his state and Daschle's. South Dakota has historically had a strong Republican lean, while Nevada is a swing state where Democrats had an especially strong year in 2008. Barack Obama carried the state by a 12 percentage-point margin in the presidential race, and his party won control of the 3rd Congressional District seat to gain a 2-1 edge in the U.S. House delegation.

A Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday showed Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden -- who has not yet declared that she is a candidate -- with a 10 percentage-point lead over Reid. The incumbent also trailed by 7 points to a declared GOP candidate: Danny Tarkanian, a businessman who is the son of famed University of Nevada-Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian.

Reid suggested an improving economy will lift his prospects. "We all know that unemployment lags behind economic recovery," he said. "So I feel that Nevada -- like the rest of the states in the country -- within the next year is going to see economic recovery. Once that takes place, I think there's going to be a general good feeling all over the country, including Nevada."

CQ Politics currently rates the Nevada race as Leans Democratic, but will be closely watching to see if Reid's slump in the polls endured into the 2010 campaign year.

To see how all of the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.