The Eye

Bunning said he opted against a re-election bid because of an inability to raise enough money to run a viable campaign. He had been widely considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the nation.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson has emerged as the favorite of the GOP establishment to replace Bunning and likely will be a competitive contender. In a potential GOP primary, Grayson holds an 11-point lead over Paul, with 37 percent supporting Grayson and 26 percent backing Paul, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. Three other Republican candidates have support in single digits.

Despite lagging behind Grayson, Paul remained optimistic about his chances. “This is a pretty amazing feat. It shows that we are in the running,” he said Thursday in a YouTube message. “In three months of campaigning we’ve pulled within striking distance of a candidate, the establishment candidate, who’s been doing this for eight years.”

Grayson appears to be on better footing than Paul against the well-known Democrats who are competing for their party’s nomination: state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who was the 2004 Democratic Senate nominee and almost upset Bunning.

Grayson leads Mongiardo 46 percent to 40 percent, and holds a 44 percent to 37 percent advantage over Conway, the poll found. For his part, Paul is slightly behind the Democrats, with Conway edging Paul 43 percent to 38 percent, and Mongiardo leading Paul 43 percent to 41 percent.

Paul’s campaign Web site shows that he has raised more than $680,000. As of June 30, Grayson had pulled in about $603,000, with roughly $596,000 cash on hand.

— Greg Vadala