Kirk Jowers, a prominent Utah political scientist, will not seek the Republican nomination in next year's special election for governor. His decision provides a clearer path for newly installed GOP Gov. Gary R. Herbert, who took office after his predecessor, Republican Jon Huntsman Jr., received U.S. Senate confirmation as the nation's new ambassador to China last week.
Jowers is familiar to many Utah voters as the oft-quoted director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, which might have made him a formidable contender. But he opted not to join the special election contest, which is required under state law because Huntsman -- who won a second term in 2008 -- resigned within the first year after winning re-election.
Jowers, who made his intentions public in Utah on Monday, told CQ Politics that he reached his decision last week and informed Herbert. Though he said he had lined up support from some state legislators and was confident he could have raised the big money (between $6 million and $8 million, he estimated) to seriously compete, Jowers said he stepped aside because of the demands a campaign would have placed on his family and his satisfaction with how Herbert has handled the gubernatorial transition.
"I have been very encouraged by the steps the governor has taken," Jowers said, citing the conservative Herbert's choice of the more centrist Republican Greg Bell as the new lieutenant governor and the fact that he has kept the departed Huntsman's state Cabinet intact.
Jowers added, "I have five kids, ages 5 to 14, and if I want to give it my best shot, I would have to work 16-18 hours a day." He noted that Herbert has been positioning himself for a future run for governor since he was first elected on Huntsman's 2004 ticket, and said it would hard over just a few months before next May's state Republican endorsement convention to match Herbert's six years of courting GOP delegates.
Herbert, however, is not assured at this point of a free ride to the 2010 nomination. Among the Republicans being mentioned as possible challengers are two state senators, John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, and state House Speaker David Clark.
Herbert's strongly conservative leanings put him at odds with Huntsman's more moderate stance on two key issues, civil unions for same-sex couples and efforts to contain climate change.
He has only nine months before the state convention to put his imprint on the state's most pressing issue, a looming budget deficit. Utah for many months has been able to weather the national economic storm, but is not entirely immune from the recession. And Herbert will have to make difficult choices such as raising taxes, which he describes as a last resort, or making spending cuts, which tend not to be popular.
Jowers, speaking as a political scientist, said that the governor has to do two things to fend off potential challengers: appear gubernatorial and obtain public approval of his job performance. "He will have to make some tough decisions and people will be looking at how he handles them," Jowers said.
There is also an interesting electoral tidbit. The state legislature is required to wrap up its business by March 11, 45 days after it convenes in late January. The week-long filing deadline for candidates to run for governor begins just after the date. So it is possible that members of the legislature could decide to challenge him if they are dissatisfied with their working relationship with Herbert as governor.
Given the huge built-in Republican advantage in Utah, one of the party's most reliably strongholds, the Democrats would need a top-tier candidate to seriously compete in the 2010 special election. Some Democrats see Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon as their best hope, especially since the state party's biggest success story, five-term U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson, has said he will seek re-election to the House in 2010 rather than run for governor.
The winner of the 2010 special election will fill out the final two years of Huntsman' unexpired term.
CQ Politics currently rates the race as Safe Republican.
To follow all of the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
-- Michael Teitelbaum
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