The 'Flipping' Odds on Senate Seats

By Greg Giroux | July 28, 2009 12:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning's retirement announcement on Monday was the eighth by a senator whose seat is on a 2010 ballot. Barring a major surprise, that's probably the last Senate retirement that will be announced this election cycle.

The eight "open" Senate seats is above the average for the past few election cycles, more than the five in 2008 or the four in 2006 and matching the eight in 1994 and 2004. In the past three decades, only in the 1996 cycle were there more open Senate seats (13) than in 1994, 2004 or 2010.

Though the retirement announcement by Bunning, who was hampered by poor fundraising and approval ratings, probably increases the Republican Party's chances of holding his seat, open seats often are more difficult for the defending party to retain than those that incumbents are defending.

As this compilation shows, the defending party has won 18 of the 34 open Senate seats in the six election cycles between 1998 and 2008. The opposing party has won 16.

2008: 5 open seats (defending party won 2, opposing party won 3)

2006: 4 open seats (defending party won all 4)

2004: 8 open seats (defending party won 1, opposing party won 7)

2002: 7 open seats (defending party won 6, opposing party won 1)

2000: 5 open seats (defending party won 3, opposing party won 2)

1998: 5 open seats (defending party won 2, opposing party won 3)

I invite readers to use the comments section to rank this cycle's eight open Senate seats by the likelihood that the opposing party will win them in November 2010. In other words, which of the eight is the most likely to flip parties and which of the eight is least likely to flip?

Do you think there will be as much partisan turnover in open seats as there was in 2004, when the defending party lost seven of the eight open seats? Or do you think 2010 will be more like 2002, when the defending party went six-for-seven in the open Senate seats? Or will the partisan breakdown fall somewhere in between?

For your reference, the Democratic-held open Senate seats are in Illinois (Roland W. Burris) and Delaware (Ted Kaufman) and the Republican-held open Senate seats are in Florida (Mel Martinez), Kansas (Sam Brownback), Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Christopher S. Bond) and Ohio (George V. Voinovich).

To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.

Next: Coleman Won't Decide on Minnesota Governor's Race Until 2010
Previous: Romney, Huckabee and Palin are GOP Favorites for 2012