The Eye

Roberts' decision comes as a bit of surprise, though, as she had made some moves that appeared to signal a full-scale run for governor. In May, CQ Politics reported that she was assembling a roster of experienced consultants to steer her exploratory campaign committee for the governor's race, making her the first would-be Democratic candidate to do so.

Seth Klaiman, Roberts' spokesman and a member of that exploratory campaign team, told CQ Politics Wednesday, "Her focus, throughout her personal, professional, and public service life, has always been on health care. As she was thinking about her accomplishments of the past month, like fighting against the threat of increased health insurance rates in the state, she came to the realization this weekend that she wouldn't be able to successfully run a campaign for governor and do what she wants to do in terms of health care."

With Carcieri barred from running again by the state's term-limit law, Democrats view the 2010 race as a ripe opportunity to claim the one major office that has eluded them in a New England state that otherwise is dominated by their party.

Republican candidates have won four consecutive races for governor and seven of the past nine, even though the Democrats have won six consecutive contests for president (Barack Obama took 63 percent of the state's vote in 2008), hold all four seats in the state's congressional delegation and control more than 90 percent of the seats in the state legislature.

Yet the Democrats' hopes for a 2010 gubernatorial takeover win are complicated -- not so much by state Rep. Joe Trillo, the likely Republican nominee and early underdog in the contest, but rather by the likely independent candidacy of former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee.

Chafee was a rare Republican senator of center-left tendencies. His tenure lasted from 1999 (when he was appointed to succeed his late father, Republican John H. Chafee) through 2006, when he lost his bid for a second full term to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

After that defeat -- which was influenced by the growing national unpopularity of President George W. Bush and his Republican administration -- Chafee quit the GOP, citing ideological differences. As a fellow at Brown University's Watson Institute in Providence, he hasn't strayed far from the public eye.

"He would be a very strong challenger," said Darrell West, a former professor at Brown University and current vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "He's well-known and well-liked in Rhode Island."

West added, "In 2006, when he lost his Senate bid, he had a good job approval rating of 64 percent, so his defeat really was not personal to him. It was the fact that people hated Bush and didn't want a Republican."

CQ Politics currently rates the 2010 general election race for governor as Tossup.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

-- Emma Dumain