Ilinois state Sen. Michael Bond has dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination in the state's 10th Congressional District.

"After careful consideration, I have decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for Congress in the Tenth District, and will instead seek reelection to the Illinois Senate," Bond said in a statement posted Friday to his campaign Web site. "While I am grateful for the encouragement I have received to run for Congress, I feel an obligation to continue working to address the enormous challenges our state is confronting."

Bond had planned to run in Illinois' 10th, which takes in suburbs north of Chicago, even before Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk said that he would run for the Senate.

Despite the birthers' best efforts, Americans believe by 77 percent to 11 percent that President Obama was, in fact, born in the U.S., according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted July 27-30. Twelve percent were not sure.

The group of biggest doubters were Republicans who agreed that Obama was U.S.-born by a lesser 42 percent to 28 percent with 30 percent not sure. Independents acknowledged Obama's native birth by 83 percent and Democrats by 93 percent.

Regionally, the part of the country with the most doubts was the South where 47 percent said Obama was native-born while 23 percent said he was not and 30 percent were unsure. Americans in all other regions said Obama was native-born by 87 percent or more.

Experienced Republicans continue to emerge in the race to succeed Republican Rep. Nathan Deal. The latest is Republican state Sen. Lee Hawkins, who told The Gainesville Times Thursday he hopes to add his voice to health care reform from his seat in Congress.

Lee Hawkins

CQ Politics confirmed with Hawkins' office that the lawmaker is preparing his candidacy for Georgia's 9th District. The Times reported he will make an official announcement Aug. 4.

Alaska's new Republican governor, Sean Parnell, begins his tenure to fill out the term of Sarah Palin with higher approval ratings than his predecessor, according to a Hays Research Group poll conducted July 29-30.

Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee in 2008, triggered positive ratings from 46.8 percent of those surveyed; a negative rating from 47.5 percent and, from 4.5 percent of the Alaskans polled, no opinion of Palin at all.

Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd got some backup Friday from one of his state's most influential papers.

"The senator and his wife, Jackie Clegg Dodd, negotiated interest rates and terms widely available in the marketplace when they refinanced the two homes. That's not special treatment," the editorial concluded.

Missouri Republican Vicky Hartzler, a former state representative who was active in her state's effort to ban same-sex marriage, appears to be preparing a 2010 campaign against veteran Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton.

Vicky Hartzler

Hartzler, who couldn't be reached for comment Thursday, has a background in education and served in the state House from 1995 through 2000. She was a spokeswoman for an organization that promoted a 2004 state constitutional amendment, overwhelmingly passed by voters, that banned same-sex marriage.

The timing of New York Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney's announcement about her intentions to run for Senate in 2010 has become something of a moving target, but people close to her campaign are now indicating that it could come in early August.

And Assemblyman Jonathan Bing, a close ally of the Democratic congresswoman who represents a portion of her Upper East Side Manhattan district, said, "Speaking to folks in the Maloney camp, she's focused right now on her congressional duties." But, he added, he thinks she is "planning to make an announcement once the House is in recess in early August."

Republicans' hopes of ousting freshman Democrat Jim Himes in Connecticut's 4th District suffered a serious blow, as heavily recruited GOP state legislator John McKinney has taken himself out of the running.

John Mckinney

"It is definitely my intention to run for re-election to the state Senate," McKinney said. "The course I'm choosing right now gives me the opportunity to do something I love, which is to help others; be a public servant; help the people of the state of Connecticut; and at the same time it allows me to stay at home and be the father I want to be for my kids."

After Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison seemed to make clear this week she'll resign this fall to concentrate fully on running for governor in 2010, I dove into the state election code to learn more about how a special Senate election would determine her successor.

With Hutchison planning to vacate her seat in October or November, the election code generally says that the special election should be held May 8, 2010, a little more than two months after Texas' regularly scheduled primaries on March 2. The May 8 date is what the election code describes as a "uniform election date."

Texas law is unusual in that it allows mid-year special elections for the Senate. In most states, special Senate elections are held in November of even-numbered years.

President Obama's job approval rating has suffered a sharp decline as have the marks Americans give him for his handling of major issues, particularly the economy and the federal budget deficit, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted July 22-26. He also took a hit for his handling of the Henry Louis Gates controversy,

Obama's approval-to-disapproval numbers for overall performance dropped from 61 percent last month to 54 percent in July. Taken together with a rise in those disapproving the job he's doing, that amounts to an 11 point turn to the negative.

You might see car fires and domestic violence in a mob movie. But as a sideshow to a potential U.S. Senate race?

As Louisiana media reported this week, porn actress Stormy Daniels, who's weighing a primary challenge to Republican Sen. David Vitter, has had a rather stormy time lately.

Daniels, whose bid presently is in an "exploratory" phase, was arrested last weekend on charges that she hit her husband at their residence in Tampa, Florida. And some 500 miles away in New Orleans -- the state in which Daniels would have to establish residency to run -- her political adviser Brian Welsh's car caught fire.

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is "pretty seriously leaning towards" running against Republican Sen. Richard M. Burr in 2010, campaign strategist Thomas Mills tell CQ Politics.

"She's gotten very strong feedback both in state and in Washington," said Mills.

If you paid attention to President Obama's health care forum in Raleigh, N.C. on Wednesday, you would have noticed her there, as well.

As the number of Democratic prospects continue to dwindle, Marshall is looking like a lead contender to take on Burr, whose shaky standing at home has Democratic party leaders drooling.

Forty-six percent of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the issue of health care reform compared to 41 percent who give him positive marks, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted July 24-27. Thirteen percent are undecided. That compares to the 52 percent to 40 percent disapproval of former President Clinton's push for an overhaul in 1994.

Forty-two percent say the plan Obama is pushing is a bad idea, 36 percent say it is a good idea and 17 percent have no opinion. That compares to June when 32 percent said it was a bad idea, 33 percent labeled it a good idea and 30 percent had no opinion.

Thirty-nine percent believe that under Obama's plan their health care will get worse, 29 percent say it will stay the same and 21 percent say it will get better. In April, 24 percent said it would get worse, 29 percent said it would stay the same and 22 percent said it would get better

While most Americans believe that the nation's health care system needs fundamental changes or to be completely rebuilt, 59 percent of registered voters believe that the legislation now moving through Congress will not benefit them personally compared to 31 percent who think it will, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted July 24-28.

Fifty-nine percent say from what they've read or heard of the legislation that it will increase costs for most Americans while 16 percent say it will have no effect and 15 percent believe it will reduce costs.

Three-quarters of those polled say they are very or somewhat concerned that a government plan to provide health care for all Americans will raise their taxes and about the same number worry that the cost of their own health care will go up. Sixty-nine percent believe that if the government creates a system of providing health care for all Americans, the quality of their own health care will get worse, compared to 53 percent who said so in June. Sixty-two percent worried that an overhaul would require them to change doctors compared to 53 percent in June

Danny K. Davis, the seven-term Democratic representative of Illinois' 7th Congressional District, appears likely to run in 2010 for a key local office. And other Democrats in his Chicago-based party stronghold are starting to take that intention seriously by moving toward entering what likely would be a crowded February primary contest.

Darlena Williams-Burnett -- chief deputy recorder of deeds for Cook County and a member of the party's state central committee -- is the first candidate to file paperwork to launch a campaign and start raising money for the 7th District seat.

The Federal Election Commission this week processed a statement of organization for Williams-Burnett, who is married to Walter Burnett Jr., a Chicago alderman.

And Williams-Burnett undoubtedly won't be the last entry if Davis does leave the House seat open.

In this year's race for Virginia governor, a new survey says Republican Bob McDonnell has opened up a double-digit lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

The poll was taken after McDonnell and Deeds held their first debate last Saturday.

It seems like this is the day for everybody to release a poll doing a Republican vs. Democrats generic match-up for the 2010 congressional elections, and [Gallup] is no exception, reporting that Democrats outpoll Republicans by 50 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The survey was conducted July 10-12.

An NPR poll conducted July 22-26 had Democrats and Republicans (including leaners) tied at 43 percent each, and a George Washington University Battleground poll conducted July 19-23 had the Democrats ahead 43 percent to 40 percent, a lead that was within the margin of error.

Gallup polled registered voters and the other two surveyed likely voters.

She's quitting. She's not quitting. She might be quitting. No, she wants the governor to be the quitter -- and quit thinking about re-election.

If Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is trying to keep the rival camp in Texas' gubernatorial primary -- and all of Washington -- guessing about how long she'll keep her current job, she's a success.

Over the course of just a few hours on Wednesday, she sent nothing but mixed signals.

First, she told a Texas radio interviewer that she intends to resign her seat in the Senate.

In Washington a short time later, Hutchison said she might stay in the Senate through next year's gubernatorial race and really didn't intend to indicate a change in her anticipated timetable.

Americans are worried over what the health care overhaul planned by President Obama and congressional Democrats may bring, with 62 percent saying it likely will raise costs in the long run, 65 percent believing the health care system will become more complicated and 56 percent concerned it will limit choice of doctors and hospitals, according to a Time Magazine poll conducted July 27-28.

Americans split at 46 percent each over whether they approved Obama's handling of the issue, but they trust Obama over congressional Republicans on health care by 47 percent to 32 percent.

Tarryl Clark, a high-ranking Democrat in the Minnesota Senate, officially announced Wednesday that she will seek to challenge two-term Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann in what could be one of the most hotly contested House races in 2010.

Tarryl Clark

Wrote Clark: "For the past few years, the 6th District's representation in Congress has been about missed opportunities."

"It's time to deliver more than a sound bite," she continued. "Representative Bachmann's biggest accomplishments are creating controversy instead of creating good jobs, and working the talk-show circuit instead of helping working families."

Texas Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison confirmed Wednesday that she will resign her U.S. Senate seat this fall to concentrate on her March 2010 primary challenge to Republican Gov. Rick Perry.

Kay Bailey Hutchison (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

Hutchison told Texas radio interviewer Mark Davis that she will leave the Senate in October or November, vacating a seat she has held since she won a 1993 special election. She subsequently won re-election three times.

She plans to make a formal announcement next month that she is making her long-expected bid for governor in a contest that will pit her against Perry, who was elected to full terms in 2002 and 2006 after moving up from lieutenant governor in 2000 to fill the vacancy caused by incumbent Republican Gov. George W. Bush's election to his first term as president.

President Obama is facing some ominous signs on the key issues of the economy and health care with voters demonstrating some strong skepticism about his handling of both those issues, according to a survey conducted for National Public Radio July 22-26.

However, another poll out today from George Washington University (read our post about it here) indicates that while Obama may be losing some ground, voters still favor him and his policies, along with those of congressional Democrats, more than those of the Republican opposition when measured by favorability and approval numbers and who is trusted more on a range of issues

Forty-eight 48 percent of voters said his economic policies have run up a record deficit while failing to end the recession or slow job losses while 45 percent said Obama had helped avert an even worse crisis and was building the foundation for recovery.

Still, 56 percent hold former President Bush responsible for the current state of the economy while 32 percent say the burden of responsibility has passed to Obama.

Underlining the divide found in most polls between Americans' support for a health care overhaul versus how they see change affecting them personally, a Gallup poll conducted July 24-25 finds that 44 percent say reforming the system will improve medical care in the U.S. while a plurality - 34 percent - believe it will worsen their own care.

The public believes by 47 percent to 29 percent that an overhaul will expand access to health care with 13 percent expecting no change. But when asked how reform would affect their personal access to health care, 39 percent say there will be no change, 29 percent believe it will reduce their access and 21 percent say it will expand it.

While President Obama's overall job approval numbers have slipped, voters still favor him and his policies, along with those of congressional Democrats, more than those of the Republican opposition when measured by favorability and approval numbers and who is trusted more on a range of issues, according to a George Washington University "Battleground" poll conducted July 19-23.

Reflecting findings of other polls, 48 percent viewed congressional Republicans unfavorably while 37 percent saw them in a positive light. Democrats were seen favorably by a bare 45 percent to 44 percent ratio. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent (including 43 percent who see her "very" unfavorably) while 32 percent see her positively, indicating that she has become a polarizing figure. The numbers on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are not very significant since 38 percent never heard of him and 16 percent had no opinion. Only 7 percent never heard of Pelosi.

In the wake of last week's corruption scandal in New Jersey, a Public Policy Polling survey shows Republican challenger Chris Christie has meanwhile expanded his lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

On July 23, 44 people, many of them Democratic lawmakers, were charged with corruption-related offenses in New Jersey. The poll gives no indication that the scandal has impacted voters' opinions, but the PPP survey is the first major independent poll released since the incident.

Voters are roughly split on whether they support or oppose the proposed health care overhaul being pushed by Democrats but the biggest chunk among them are the 41 percent who put themselves in the "strongly oppose" category, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 26-27.

Fifty percent believe the quality of health care will get worse under an overhaul, 23 percent say it will get better and 23 percent expect it to be about the same. Fifty-three percent believe costs will go up, 23 percent say costs will go down and 18 percent say they will remain the same.

In criticizing unnamed Republican leaders for doing "everything in their power to dry up my fundraising," Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning didn't give a run-of-the-mill retirement announcement.

Jim Bunning (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

But Bunning's goodbye on Monday was high and tight, just like the fastballs he used to throw as a Hall of Fame pitcher.

North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre won't be taking on Republican incumbent Richard Burr in the state's 2010 Senate race.

Mike McIntyre (Getty Images/Logan Mock-Bunting)

McIntyre is a Democratic whip and a member of the Majority Leader's Advisory Council.

With McIntyre's decision, Democrats continue to struggle to recruit a top-tier challenger to Burr, despite Democratic gains in the state in past two election cycles and polls showing Burr vulnerable. Attorney General Roy Cooper and North Carolina Reps. Heath Shuler, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge have all rejected overtures to run.

Minnesota Public Radio reported Monday that former Republican Sen. Norm Coleman continues to mull the state's 2010 governor's race, but won't make a decision until next year.

Norm Coleman (Getty Images/Cory Ryan)

The former senator's decision could be a game changer in the race, which is already filling up with GOP hopefuls since Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty announced in June he would not seek a third term.

Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning's retirement announcement on Monday was the eighth by a senator whose seat is on a 2010 ballot. Barring a major surprise, that's probably the last Senate retirement that will be announced this election cycle.

The eight "open" Senate seats is above the average for the past few election cycles, more than the five in 2008 or the four in 2006 and matching the eight in 1994 and 2004. In the past three decades, only in the 1996 cycle were there more open Senate seats (13) than in 1994, 2004 or 2010.

Though the retirement announcement by Bunning, who was hampered by poor fundraising and approval ratings, probably increases the Republican Party's chances of holding his seat, open seats often are more difficult for the defending party to retain than those that incumbents are defending.

Three Republicans are bunched within five points of each when potential GOP presidential candidates are matched up for 2012 with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney barely on top, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted July 21-22. The margin of error for the part of the survey dealing only with Republican voters is 6 points.

Other recent polls have varied on the 2012 results. A Washington Post/ABC News survey conducted in mid-July had Huckabee on top while a July 10-12 Gallup poll favored Romney. Several recent polls made clear that voters overall don't want to see Palin as president.

Democratic state Rep. Julie Hamos today announced a 2010 House campaign in Illinois' 10th District, joining a crowded Democratic field for the seat that Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk is giving up to run for the Senate.

Julie Hamos

Hamos was first elected to the state House in 1998 and lives in Evanston, which is in the adjacent 9th District of Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, and her state legislative district includes most of that city as well as some communities in the 10th District. Members of Congress are not required to live in their districts.

Democrat Scott Heidepriem, the state Senate minority leader in South Dakota, has made his 2010 candidacy for governor official, after telling CQ Politics last week that he was committed to the contest.

Scott Heidepriem

Heidepriem's decision to run brought relief to Democratic officials, who had recruiting worries after popular at-large U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin decided to pursue another term in the House rather than run for governor. Herseth Sandlin, who has easily won her recent races for a House seat that amounts to a statewide office, had been regarded as the party's strongest potential candidate for governor.

Pennsylvania Democrat John Callahan, the mayor of Bethlehem, has made it official: he's waging a 2010 campaign against three-term Republican Rep. Charlie Dent in the state's 15th District in the Lehigh Valley.

John Callahan

Callahan's entry was widely expected. He's been talking for months with Democratic members about making the race, and the Morning Call newspaper in Allentown last week cited sources that said the mayor would make a run.

John Cherry's two terms as lieutenant governor of Michigan make him a solid early favorite to win the nomination for the contest to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm. But it has long been clear that he will face opponents for the August 2010 primary, with the main question being, "How many?"

George Perles, a former head football coach at Michigan State University and now an elected trustee of that school, has not officially launched a candidacy but has publicly stated he plans to run. And two experienced officeholders, Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano and state House Speaker Andy Dillon, are thinking about entering the Democratic race.

While almost half of Americans believe they have a good understanding of the issues involved in proposals to overhaul the health care system, two-thirds do not believe the same about the lawmakers who will vote on them, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 26.

Would you say that you/members of Congress have a good understanding of the issues involved in the current debate over national health care reform, or not?

Fifty-eight percent of Republicans say they personally have a good understanding of the issues but only 20 percent believe that's true of Congress. Forty-seven percent of Democrats regard themselves as knowledgeable on health care with 34 percent saying they believe Congress understands the issues too. Forty-one percent of independents say they know the issues, but only 26 percent say Congress does.

Joseph Biden (Getty Images/AFP/Vano Shlamov)

While Biden's above-the-midpoint score is far greater than Vice President Dick Cheney's approval ratings at the end of the Bush administration, it's not too far from where Cheney ranked early in Bush's first term.

Biden's approval/disapproval score is 55 percent to 33 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The poles of the poll, those who strongly approve or strongly disapprove of Biden are nearly even, with 20 percent choosing the former and 21 percent the latter. Where Biden wins is in the middle: 36 percent say they somewhat approve of the way he is handling his job while only 12 percent say they somewhat disapprove.

Vulnerable Democratic Rep. Travis W. Childers gained his first official challenger Monday when Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee filed to run in Mississippi's 1st District.

"We need somebody representing north Mississippi that will hold the Obama administration accountable," Nunnelee said.

Nunnelee had been considering a campaign and this morning, according to news reports and confirmed by CQ Politics, he made it official and filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.

Jan Brewer

That's a drop from the 51 percent approval rating she enjoyed in May. Moreover, the majority of respondents - 72 percent - rated Brewer's handling of the state's budget crisis as fair or poor. Just 25 percent said it was good or excellent.

Moderate House Democrats, particularly those facing competitive 2010 races, are taking fire from all sides on the health care debate.

The Republican National Committee is going after 60 Congressional Democrats, including 41 CQ Politics rates as at least somewhat vulnerable in 2010, in a radio ad pressuring them to oppose the Democrats' health care overhaul proposals.

The ad, airing in 33 states, is part of a campaign the RNC is waging against the health care overhaul through the end of August. The committee is committed to spending nearly $1 million nationwide, which includes a television ad already on the air in North Dakota, Nevada, and Arkansas -- the latter two of which are likely to host competitive Senate races in 2010. It is all part of a recent blitz of health care-related ad buys the parties and interest groups are making as they gear up for a full-court grass-roots press on the issue during Congress' August recess.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's latest attempt to shore up support from New York's liberal Democratic base in advance of the 2010 election came Monday when Gillibrand touted an upcoming Armed Services hearing probing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy.

"'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' is an unfair, outdated measure that violates the civil rights of some of our bravest, most heroic men and women. By repealing this policy, we will increase America's strength - both militarily and morally."

This run-up year to Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick's re-election campaign has been rough on the Democratic incumbent, as his struggles with the state's recession-plagued economy and other issues have hurt his standing with state votes. And the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Monday was just more bad news, as his job approval ratings hit a new low point.

Just 35 percent of the respondents said they approve of the job Patrick is doing, while 56 percent disapprove.

One of the major sources of Patrick's growing unpopularity, the Globe noted, is his perceived failure to reform state government, as he promised in his 2006 campaign. Sixty-two percent of respondents said Patrick has not brought reform to the state, while just 25 percent believe he has.

A majority of Americans favor confirming Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, according to a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamic Poll conducted July 21-22. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said they would vote to confirm Sotomayor, up from 46 percent in an early June survey.

As in the Senate, Sotomayor fared better with Democrats -- 72 percent of whom favored confirmation -- compared to Republicans, only 29 percent said they would vote yes. An even higher proportion -- 62 percent -- agreed that Sotomayor and other recent nominees, "say what they have to for confirmation" rather than "answer the questions honestly."

Nevertheless, Sotomayor's overall favorability increased to 41 percent, compared to 36 percent in June, though 15 percent of those surveyed say they have never heard of her. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.

Yeah, it's summer, and out in the real world that means picnics and swimming pools.

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, the first House member to announce retirement before the 2008 cycle. (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

Though 17 members of the House have already said they're not defending their House seats in 2010, all of them are running for other political office. No House member has yet announced plans to leave political life after the 2010 election.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet isn't on the Foreign Relations Committee or the Armed Services Committee. Or the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.

Michael Bennet (Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

Founded in 1962 by a nuclear physicist who worked on the Manhattan Project, The Council for a Livable World is a Washington, non profit that - according to its Web site - is "dedicated to reducing the danger of nuclear weapons and increasing national security."

While 41 percent of Americans want to see a health care overhaul law passed by year's end, another 30 percent support it but say it doesn't have to happen this year and another 24 percent don't want such a measure passed at all, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 23.

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want to see a law passed this year as do a plurality (37 percent) of independents. Thirty-three percent of independents support passage but say it doesn't have to happen this year and 23 percent are against passing any law at all. Forty-nine percent of Republicans are opposed to any overhaul at all, 28 percent favor passing a law but without a deadline of this year, and 22 percent want to see a law passed this year.

Sens. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., and Richard C. Shelby, R-Ala., will easily win new terms in 2010 in part because of their huge campaign treasuries.

Schumer represents some wealthy New York donors and shattered fundraising records as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the 2006 and 2008 campaign cycles. Shelby is a former chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee and is presently its top-ranking Republican.

Swing State Project has a nice breakdown of the 15 House Republicans added Thursday to the National Republican Campaign Committee's Patriot Program.

Michele Bachmann is one of several Republicans getting help from Washington (Getty Images/Alex Wong)

Notable additions to the roster include Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who has several Democrats vying for her seat; Florida Rep. Bill Posey, who has made waves recently as a leader of the controversial "birther movement," pushing legislation to require presidential candidates to prove their citizenship; and, Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, whom Democrats continue to target and who this time around may face a viable challenge from Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.

CQ Politics rates all but three of these general election races as competitive in its House Race ratings, which will be rolled out Monday.

Carly Fiorina (Getty Images/Alex Wong)

Boxer's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent unsure, and the lesser-known Fiorina is seen unfavorably by 35 percent, favorably by 30 percent but has 35 percent of voters who don't know enough about her to be sure.

While incumbents polling below 50 percent are viewed as vulnerable, Rasmussen says "a Democrat running in a heavily Democratic state like California is often able to overcome weak poll numbers."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the pack of potential GOP presidential contenders for 2012, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaners conducted July 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points.

Fifty-three percent view Sarah Palin unfavorably. (Getty Images/Michael Nagle)

Ohio state Rep. Todd Book will be the Democrats' 2010 challenger to Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt in the Cincinnati-area 2nd District.

Todd Book

Book's Democratic backers include Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland. Both men are from rural Scioto County in southern Ohio. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, circulated Book's announcement to reporters.

President Obama's approval-to-disapproval numbers have dropped to 54 percent to 38 percent, down from 62 percent to 31 percent in early June, and voters disapprove of how he's handling health care by 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted July 21-22. The margin of error is 3 points.

One factor in the erosion of Obama's marks is that independents now approve of his performance by a 54 percent to 36 percent ratio, a significant falloff from the 66 percent to 26 percent he enjoyed in June.

Voters are split, 49 percent to 48 percent, on whether they want Congress to pass a major health care overhaul this year. Fifty-one percent don't think the Obama administration has a clear plan for health care. Asked whether they favored or opposed the package being put together on Capitol Hill based on what they know, voters oppose it 47 percent to 36 percent.

Criticisms of the Democrats' proposals to overhaul the nation's health care system are gaining some traction, according to a poll conducted July 7-14 by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The image of the U.S. around the world has improved markedly since Barack Obama replaced George Bush, surveyed by the Pew Research Center between May 18 and June 16.

The biggest jump in favorable views of the U.S. has been in western Europe with improvements also in key countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. There were some signs of improvement in Muslim countries but the view of Muslims in the Mideast remain unfavorable.

A plurality of Americans say that the Obama administration's economic stimulus plans has had no effect on the economy while nearly-two thirds say it has had no effect on their family's financial situation although they are more optimistic about the long-term impact, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 17-19.

Up until now, do you think Obama's economic stimulus plan has made the economy or your financial situation better, worse, or had no effect?

Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd continues to trail former Rep. Rob Simmons in a hypothetical 2010 match-up, but his approval ratings continued to inch up in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 18 through 20

The poll found Dodd with just a slight lead on state Sen. Sam Caligiuri in a general election match-up, 42 percent to 40 percent, and tied with businessman and former Ireland ambassador Tom Foley, at 42 percent. Dodd lead investor Peter Schiff 43 percent to 38 percent.

Connecticut voters are beginning to lose patience with Gov. Jodi Rell, whose approval ratings have declined, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 16-20.

Jodi Rell (Getty Images/Neilson Barnard)

But the poll found that voters are not as frustrated with the governor as they are with the legislature, where the job disapproval level polled at 45 percent.

A Senate amendment that would have allowed licensed gun owners to carry concealed firearms across state lines was backed by six Democratic senators who are running for re-election in 2010.

Among those voting "aye" on the amendment, which received 58 votes but failed because 60 votes were required for adoption, were Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Michael Bennet of Colorado, Evan Bayh of Indiana, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.

In another sign that Tarryl Clark is seriously considering a run for Congress, the popular state senator filed a statement organization for a federal campaign committee, Friends of Tarryl Clark.

Tarryl Clark

In the paperwork, filed July 17 with the Federal Election Commission and published today on the agency's Web site, Clark indicates she will seek Bachmann's Minnesota's 6th District seat.

When U.S. senators leave Congress, they often transition to comfortable lives in the private sector or in retirement. Sometimes they'll re-enter political life by trying to reclaim their Senate seats, running for governor or president or joining a presidential Cabinet.

Mike DeWine

DeWine, who announced his candidacy Wednesday, has a long career in Ohio public life that also includes service as a county prosecutor, state senator, U.S. House member and lieutenant governor. Three years ago he lost his bid for a third Senate term to Democrat Sherrod Brown.

DeWine's unusual candidacy got me thinking: when has an ex-senator run for a down-ballot statewide office (lieutenant governor, attorney general, etc.)? I can't think of any offhand, even after scanning this list of 150 living former senators.

Use the comments section below if you can think of any.

Rick Snyder, a technology industry veteran from Ann Arbor, officially kicked off a dark-horse bid in the crowded 2010 Republican primary for governor, and set off on a four-day announcement tour across the state.

Rick Snyder

A former president and chief operating officer of computer company Gateway Inc., Snyder contends his business and high-tech background makes him the candidate who is best able to re-energize the recession-plagued state's economy and repair the low opinion most Michigan voters currently have of their state government in Lansing.

Snyder sought to link himself to the legacy of inventor Thomas A. Edison during his announcement speech at Greenfield Village, part of the Henry Ford Museum in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn. His event was held at Edison's Menlo Park, N.J., laboratory, relocated to the museum, which "embodies the inventive spirit we need to embrace," Snyder said in a statement.

State Rep. Paul Thissen, a Democrat, will officially announce his 2010 run for governor of Minnesota Thursday, his campaign committee revealed in a press release.

Paul Thissen

A Harvard University graduate, Thissen boasts experience in both the private and public sectors as an attorney, four-term state legislator and current chairman of the state House Health and Human Services Committee.

But he is joining a Democratic lineup that already contains declared candidates with higher profiles in statewide politics, including Mark Dayton, who represented Minnesota in the U.S. Senate from 2001 to 2007, and former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza. And the field could grow crowded with others, as the parties prepare for a competitive contest to succeed retiring two-term Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Despite changing parties to boost his re-election prospects, Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., is in a statistical tie with his likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Patrick Toomey, who ran unsuccessfully against Specter in 2004, according to a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.survey conducted July 14-19.

"Specter's 20-point lead over former Congressman Pat Toomey less than three months ago has virtually vanished," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The poll shows Specter with 45 percent and Toomey with 44 percent, well inside the margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points

The Senate vote Tuesday to end production of F-22 fighter planes has generated a round of finger-pointing in Connecticut over who should have done more to save the program.

Republican Senate hopefuls Rob Simmons and Sam Caligiuri put out press releases attacking Sen. Christopher J. Dodd for failing to muster opposition to the amendment to the fiscal 2010 defense authorization bill (S 1390). Dodd voted against the amendment, proposed by Sens. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and John McCain, R-Ariz., and backed by the White House, because it would cost Connecticut jobs -- the state is home to the Pratt & Whitney, which builds the plane's engines.

In a press release, Dodd said he "has raised serious concerns about shutting down the production of the F-22 Raptor since Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates made the announcement earlier this year," adding that the decision will "harm our economy and industrial capability," and "place our national security at risk."

Simmons and Caligiuri said such protestations were not enough, taking a shot at one of Dodd's big selling points on the campaign trail -- that the state would lose his invaluable Senate seniority and clout should it opt to replace him.

Americans now disapprove over the way President Obama is handling the proposed overhaul of health care by 50 percent to 44 percent, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 17-19.

You can see the partisan divide on this issue from the chart with 74 percent of Democrats approving, 86 percent of Republicans disapproving and 55 percent of independents disapproving.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy?

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter's latest campaign finance report includes Democratic donors who are among his newest friends and Republicans who demanded and received contributions after he switched parties in late April.

Arlen Specter (Photo by Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly)

One prominent Republican who requested and received a contribution refund was Rob Gleason, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, which has even set up a Web site to help Republican donors request refunds.

David Vitter (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

Vitter, of course, is the senator who was embarrassed last year when it was revealed his phone number was found in the records of the escort service run by the woman known as the "D.C. Madam."

Dan Seals

But there is a big difference between the 2010 contest and Seals' competitive but losing challenges in 2006 and 2008: Kirk will not be the Republican nominee in the 10th District House race, as he on Monday confirmed his plans to run for the U.S. Senate.

Seals, who will face stiff competition for the 2010 Democratic nomination, in fact had made his candidacy contingent on Kirk leaving the House seat open to run statewide. Seals, a business consultant, took 46.6 percent of the vote against Kirk as a first-time candidate in 2006, and 47.4 percent in their 2008 rematch.

Public trust in President Obama has dropped from 66 percent to 31 percent margin in March to a 54 percent to 42 percent ratio, according to a Politico/Public Strategies poll conducted July 9-12.

Democrats as a party took a similar hit: from a positive trust ratio of 54 percent to 41 percent in March to 43 percent who trust the Democrats and 53 percent who do not. Thirty-seven percent trust the Republicans and 57 percent do not compared to 41 percent who trusted the GOP in March and 54 percent who did not.

Pennsylvania's second-term Gov. Edward Rendell joins the club of Northeast and Midwestern Democratic governors who are looking at their numbers nosedive, largely because of their states' economic woes. And that may have reverberations in 2010 when it comes to who succeeds Rendell.

Republican businessman Keith Fimian is planning a 2010 challenge of Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly, setting up a rematch of their 2008 race in the northern Virginia-based 11th House District.

In a statement the National Republican Congressional Committee circulated to reporters, Fimian said that he is running because Democratic-run Congress "has gone out-of-control on spending" and that Connolly "is incapable of addressing the challenges Northern Virginia families face."

Fimian in particular criticized the fiscal 2010 budget resolution, the economic stimulus law and a House-passed climate change bill.

Some former senators who left Congress years ago are still keeping campaign money in motion.

Democrats Donald Riegle of Michigan and Robert G. Torricelli of New Jersey and Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell are among the former senators whose fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2009 were on file Wednesday with the Senate Office of Public Records in Washington.

Riegle, who served three Senate terms and retired at the end of 1994, gave $10,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), the campaign arm of the 60 Democratic senators, and $1,000 to Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, who faces a tough 2010 re-election.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which orchestrates the party's national effort in Senate elections, used a big month of fundraising in June to surge past its partisan counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), in the money chase for the first half of 2009.

The DSCC raised $12.8 million for the year's second quarter (April 1-June 30) -- including $6.2 million just last month -- to give it a total of $23.1 million in receipts for the first six months of the year. The NRSC had $3.4 million in June receipts, giving it $11 million in second quarter and $20.1 million in receipts on the year.

The DSCC also enjoyed a significant lead in money still in the bank, with $7.9 million in cash on hand to $4.3 million for the NRSC. This was the case even though the Democratic committee has been addressing its one clear financial disadvantage: While the NRSC reports no outstanding debt, the DSCC has been making "significant debt payments."

The DSCC's debt total, which stood at $11 million at the beginning of the current election cycle, was largely the result of borrowing during the home stretch of the 2008 campaign as the party made a final push for its big eight-seat gain. The committee reduced its red ink total to $3.7 million by the end of June.

After hitting rock bottom in May, New York Gov. David A. Paterson's favorability ratings continue to inch up. The Democrat, who is up for election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 56 percent, in a new poll from Siena Research Institute, conducted July 13 through 16, . That's an increase from 31 percent favorability in June 2009 and 27 percent in May.

Paterson does not appear to have been hurt by the chaos consuming the state legislature, which was deadlocked by a leadership struggle over the past month. In fact, 64 percent of voters surveyed gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

Even so, 69 percent of respondents said they would prefer to elect someone else in 2010, while just 17 percent said they would vote for him.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing President Obama's approval ratings slipping on front-burner issues, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 15-16 saw his overall job approval rating drop from 50 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided. (The Post/ABC poll still had Obama's overall rating at 59 percent to 37 percent).

Obama's rating in PPP polls had been 55 percent in May and 52 percent in June.

The poll did hypothetical match-ups with Obama pitted against four Republicans for 2012. Obama bested all of them in the PPP survey, but a Rasmussen Reports poll had less favorable news for Obama.

President Obama's approval ratings have declined some more, both overall and on his front-burner issues, according to an ABC News-Washington Post poll conducted July 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points.

Obama's overall approval rating has declined by 6 percentage points in the last month, but even with that loss, it still stands at 59 percent, while 37 percent say they disapprove.

On health care, Obama's approval rating has dropped 8 percentage points, from 57 percent to 49 percent, since April as legislation to overhaul the nation's health insurance system began taking shape, The Post reported. At the same time, overall disapproval of his handling of health care has risen to 44 percent from 29 percent. Among independents, 49 percent disapprove of his plans to alter the health care system, while 44 percent approve.

Susan Martinez

Not Republican Susana Martinez, the district attorney in New Mexico's Doña Ana County. She launched her campaign in her state's 2010 open-seat race for governor on Friday without going through an in-between stage.

"I'm ready to get to work," she said Friday.

Martinez has a tough road ahead in the contest to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson, who cannot seek re-election under the state's term-limit law.

More Nevada voters disapprove of Sen. John Ensign, R-NV, but a majority of them still do not want him to resign in the wake of a scandal over his extramarital affair with a campaign staffer, according to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Ensign, who was re-elected to his Senate seat in 2006, admitted to the affair and later fired his mistress and her husband, who was chief of staff for his Senate office. He also acknowledged that his parents paid $96,000 to the family of his mistress.

That has not rested well with the state's voters, just 31 percent of whom say they have a favorable view of the senator, a drop of 22 percentage points from before the affair was revealed in mid June and eight points lower than a month ago.

Ethan Hastert

If Hastert's name sounds familiar, it should: he's a son of former Republican Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (1987-2007), who gave his son $10,000 from his political action committee, Keep Our Mission PAC.

Ethan Hastert, who organized his campaign committee just before the end of the second quarter, also got $5,000 from the leadership PAC of Illinois freshman Republican Rep. Aaron Schock, who represents the Peoria-area 18th District.

Adding more spice to what already promises to be a heated race, one of the Democratic candidates looking to take on Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is now saying he won't bow out if he does not win the party's nomination.

Minnesota's political parties have the somewhat unique tradition of formally nominating candidates for general election races, which oftentimes, but not always, clears the primary field for the chosen one. Tinklenberg, himself, has abided by the nomination process in the past, dropping out after he lost the party's endorsement in 2006 and obtaining the endorsement in 2008. He eventually lost to Bachmann by three percentage points.

The 42 House Democrats to whom party leaders are steering extra financial and political assistance banked an average of nearly half a million dollars 16 months before the 2010 midterm elections.

These lawmakers -- primarily junior members from politically competitive districts -- are known as "Frontline Democrats". They ramped up their fundraising operations in this year's second quarter to prepare for vigorous Republican opposition in the 2010 midterm elections.

According to updated campaign finance reports filed this week with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the 42 Frontline Democrats had an average of $481,000 in campaign cash-on-hand as July began. Please consult this chart for a detailed analysis that is based on FEC data.

One reason Pennsylvania Democrat Doug Pike is an early favorite to capture the state's southeastern 6th District is the significant personal resources he's willing to invest in his campaign.

Pike, who is vying to succeed Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach, a 2010 candidate for governor, gave his campaign $510,000 in this year's second quarter, or about 77 percent of his total receipts of $664,000. That was the most money raised in the reporting period by a non-incumbent 2010 candidate for the House.

When Pike, a former editorial writer for The Philadelphia Inquirer, announced his candidacy in early April, Democratic officials said that he would be willing to part with $1 million of his own money on the race.

Neither Democratic recruit Charlie Justice nor Republican Rep. C.W. Bill Young raised much money this quarter in Florida's 10th District.

Justice, a state senator who was recruited to take on the longtime House veteran, reported $86,000 raised this quarter and $71,000 on hand.

And Young, who at 78 years of age is the subject of persistent retirement rumors, raised $50,000 this quarter for a total of $57,000 raised this year.

Now that Americans are getting to see a bit more of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, they seem to like her a bit more.

A Rasmussen Reports survey is finding an upward trend for her over the course of her confirmation hearings this week, with a plurality of voters now favoring her confirmation to the post.

Sotomayor, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit, is favored for confirmation to the Supreme Court by 44 percent of voters, according Rasmussen's daily tracking poll.

Democrat Ami Bera, a physician, has never before held public office, but he outraised Republican Rep. Dan Lungren this quarter in California's 3rd.

Ami Bera

Lungren raised $238,000 this quarter, for a total of $382,000 raised this year. Lungren reported $322,000 remaining after expenditures.

Former New York City Mayor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani could make a race out of the 2010 governor's contest, if early polling is any indication.

Rudy Giuliani (MLB Photos via Getty Images/Jessica Foster)

In a hypothetical match-up, Cuomo, a Democrat, leads Giuliani 48 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent supporting another candidate and 6 percent unsure.

Both major parties' congressional campaign units make a practice of setting up joint fundraising committees. These operations share the contributions they receive between the national party organization and individual candidates who are up for election in the current cycle.

But a Democratic fundraiser held in June, from which the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) netted the lion's share of the proceeds, highlights the fact that having a joint committee usually does not mean a 50-50 split.

The event on June 15 event at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Chicago, was headlined by White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, a former House Democrat from Illinois. And it raised more than $600,000 for "Senate Victory 2010."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is the latest member of the Democratic Party establishment to get behind appointed New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's 2010 campaign.

Reid, a Nevada Democrat, joined a growing list of Gillibrand backers, including former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, who announced his support on Thursday.

Gillibrand has been hustling to line up support from congressional colleagues and Democratic support groups in advance of an expected primary challenge by nine-term Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney. Aides to Maloney have said that she will announce in late July that she is a candidate for the 2010 special election.

One question that most of the major pollsters have asked Americans - including in a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll - is whether the public thinks the most important goal of a health care overhaul is to extend insurance to all who lack it or reduce health care costs.

That has prompted some insightful analysis by Mark Blumental at Pollster.com and Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, writing in The Hill. Both worth reading.

First-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr, who is no fan of Public Policy Polling's results when it comes to his political outlook, does a little better in PPP's latest survey with his approval-to-disapproval ratio up to 36 percent to 29 percent, a net improvement of 8 points since last month.

Last month, Burr trailed a generic Democratic candidate 41 percent to 38 percent, but now leads by 40 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll conducted July 10-12.

This time, PPP tested Burr against two potential Democratic challengers, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham and veteran political operative Kenneth Lewis.

Burr led Cunningham 40 percent to 31 percent with 29 percent undecided and Lewis by 42 percent to 31 percent with 27 percent undecided.

The race to fill retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's seat in 2010 is shaping up as a competitive one with Rep. Paul Hodes holding a slight lead if he runs against Charlie Bass and in a statistical tie if his opponent is Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted July 13-15.

When it comes to three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch, 61 percent of voters say they would re-elect him in 2010, 24 percent who consider voting for someone else and 15 percent want to replace him.

Back from another trip to the Senate's public records office, which is busy processing the dozens of campaign finance reports that senators and candidates had to mail by a July 15 deadline.

Most of the reports, which cover receipts and expenditures for the second quarter of 2009 and often run into the hundreds of pages, aren't yet available for viewing. (Unfortunately, the Senate doesn't mandate electronic filing of campaign finance reports). But here are some useful nuggets of information from campaign reports I did view earlier today.

Alabama: Talk about low overhead. Republican Sen. Richard C. Shelby, a shoo-in to win a fifth term in 2010, raised $1.4 million and spent just $96,000 doing so. That's less than 7 percent of his second-quarter receipts. Even at this early stage, most campaigns spend a larger percentage of their receipts on fundraising and staff expenses. (For example, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid raised $3.3 million and spent $976,000, or about 30 percent.) Shelby has a whopping $14.8 million cash-on-hand as July began.

The stream of Minnesota Republicans announcing their gubernatorial intentions continued Thursday with the declaration by state Sen. David Hann that he, too, will be a candidate.

David Hann

Hann made it clear he would be guided by his principles. "I am a principled conservative who believes the solutions we choose must be based on sound principle," he said. He did not elaborate on what said principles might be.

Hann joins a bevy of Republicans and Democrats clamoring for the vacant seat. Former State Auditor Pat Anderson officially launched her campaign yesterday.

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced last month that he would not run for a third term, leaving the race wide open.

Howard Dean (Getty Images/Brendan Smialowski)

In what could have been mistaken for the pilot episode of the "Howard and Kirsten" show, Dean led a round of questioning, talk-show style, probing Gillibrand's stances on a host of hot-button progressive issues such as gay marriage, the Employee Free Choice Act and a public option for health care insurance. Having apparently passed Dean's progressive litmus test, he announced at the end of the seven-minute video that he was endorsing her for election in 2010.

"Today she's satisified me that she knows how to use that [Democratic] majority in order to get things done so I am pleased to endorse Kirsten Gillibrand for the United States Senate," Dean said.

If Rep. Dean Heller is considering a Senate run, it's not showing in his fundraising.

The Nevada Republican, who has been touted as a possible challenger to Majority Leader Harry Reid, raised $166,000 in the second quarter and $255,000 in the bank -- not shabby for a member of Congress with no major challenger at the moment, but certainly not Senate-race-ready.

Compare that to another House member who is expected to mount a Senate run, New York Democrat Carolyn B. Maloney. Maloney tallied $578,000 in receipts and banked $1.7 million as of June 30.

President Obama is scheduled to stump for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine today, but a new poll from Monmouth University shows that it will take more than the president to save the vulnerable governor's campaign.

Obama received a 59 percent job approval rating from likely voters surveyed while Corzine received a 41 percent favorability rating. Christie received a 50 percent favorability rating.

Greg Ball

Ball reported a total of $182,000 in receipts for the second quarter, compared to $161,000 for Hall.

Almost all of Ball's money came from individual donors, rather than political action committees. Hall's fundraising numbers, meanwhile, are well down from the comparable period in the last election cycle. Hall reported raising $419,000 for the second quarter of 2007, and had $666,000 cash on hand.

Hall still has a comfortable cash-on-hand cushion this time around, with $292,000 to Ball's $100,000.

Hall scored one of the biggest upsets of the 2006 campaign cycle, defeating six-term incumbent Sue W. Kelly by 2 percentage points. But he wasn't seriously tested in his 2008 race against Peekskill Republican Kieran Michael Lalor.

Ball got an early start on his campaign for the 19th District seat, declaring his candidacy in April. And he has been conducting aggressive outreach and fundraising since.

UPDATE: A sharp-eyed Democratic aide pointed out (and CQ Politics confirmed) that approximately $20,000 of Ball's fundraising total included in his second quarter report came from donations made in the first quarter. Ball was actively exploring a bid and raising funds prior to his April announcement; he didn't have to report those funds until he was an official candidate

Subtract $20,000 and Ball and Hall's receipts for the second quarter were essentially even. Still not great result for Hall, given his comparative receipts in 2007.

Minnesota physician Maureen Reed could be a force to be reckoned with in the race for Michele Bachmann's 6th District seat. Reed, a Democrat, raised $232,000 in the two months since declaring her candidacy in early May, virtually all from individual donors.

That nearly matches Bachmann, who has become something of a conservative darling and liberal pariah over her two terms in Congress and thus enjoys a far higher national profile than Reed. She raised $285,000 in the second quarter of the year. And it trumps fellow Democratic contender and 2008 nominee El Tinklenberg, who totaled just $55,000 in receipts.

Bachmann retained a strong cash advantage, with $389,000 in the bank at the end of June compared to $219,000 for Reed and $199,000 for Tinklenberg.

Another poll augurs a close primary contest between New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney in 2010.

The poll's results aren't very conclusive since neither Gillibrand nor Maloney are particularly well known to the Democratic electorate.

Forty-nine percent had a favorable or somewhat favorable impression of their sitting senator, 25 percent had a somewhat or very unfavorable impression and 26 percent were unsure. Maloney registered similar numbers - 42 percent held a favorable or somewhat favorable view of the Manhattan-based House member, 24 percent viewed her unfavorably and 34 percent were unsure.

Texas Republicans like both their governor, Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison -- giving them both favorability ratings north of 70 percent -- but when it comes to choosing between those two for the nomination for governor, the incumbent has a distinct edge.

The survey, conducted of 776 voters who are likely to vote in the March 2 GOP election, had Perry with 46 percent of the vote and Hutchison with 36 percent. The rest of the respondents said they were undecided or support some other candidate.

Republican Frank Guinta is challenging two-term Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire's 1st District, and GOP officials are touting the mayor of Manchester -- the state's biggest city -- as one of their top recruits for the 2010 elections. But Guinta, whose campaign has had a bumpy start, filed an initial campaign finance report in which the numbers fell short of stellar.

While Guinta's amount was close to the $120,000 that Shea-Porter raised during the same three-month period, the incumbent had an earlier start, and her combined total as of June 30 was $254,000 overall. Another key measure produced a similar gap, as Shea-Porter reported $211,000 remaining on hand and Guinta reported $93,000.

At this early stage. former Massachusetts Gov. and last year's presidential hopeful Mitt Romney leads a list of other Republicans when it comes to who should top the GOP ticket in 2012, with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin a close second, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 10-12.

When it comes to favorability ratings, Palin leads the pack among Republicans with a 72 percent to 21 percent favorable-to-unfavorable ratio but among all Americans she is viewed unfavorably by 45 percent and favorably by 43 percent.

Democrat Steve Pougnet, mayor of Palm Springs, outraised Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack in Calfornia's 45th District this quarter, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Steve Pougnet

Bono Mack still beat out Pougnet overall on money raised and cash remaining. Bono Mack raised $349,000 total and reported $448,000 on hand Pougnet raised $212,000 and was left with $203,000 on hand.

Florida Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown has yet to officially form a campaign for the open Senate seat but she's got a supporter in colleague Donna Edwards of Maryland.

Edwards' leadership PAC, Leadership That Listens, reported a $1,000 donation to "Corrine Brown for U.S. Senate" in June. Brown has been gauging support as she mulls a primary challenge to Democratic Rep. Kendrick B. Meek, the top Democratic candidate in the 2010 race.

Edwards, Meek, and Brown are all members of the Congressional Black Caucus -- whose members may be pressed to choose sides if Brown and Meek run for the same office. But it hasn't split Edwards' support. Her leadership PAC donated $250 to Meek's Senate campaign on the same day the donation to Brown was made.

It didn't match her first quarter fundraising haul, but the $1.5 million New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand raised over the past three months isn't too shabby.

The New York Daily News is reporting that likely primary rival Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney raised $577,000 during the second quarter and had $1.7 million cash on hand as of June 30.

Trey Grayson, Kentucky's Republican secretary of State, raised $603,000 in this year's second quarter for a potential 2010 Senate campaign, even though Republican incumbent Jim Bunning says he still plans to seek re-election.

According to my analysis of Grayson's report (one of the few to be on file today in the Senate Office of Public Records ahead of tonight's deadline), elected officials were among the donors to his "exploratory" campaign. They included state Reps. Scott Brinkman, Brent Housman and Alecia Webb-Edgington.

Other elected officials who gave to Grayson's effort included K.C. Crosbie, a councilwoman in Lexington, and Hal Heiner, a councilman in Louisville.

With less than four months remaining until the Nov. 3 election for the Virginia governorship, the race between Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell remains very close.

Half of respondents said that they had a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of McDonnell, compared to 27 percent who said their impression of him was very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable. He's viewed a bit more positively than Deeds, whose figures are 49 percent very/somewhat favorable and 35 percent very/somewhat unfavorable.

Former New Hampshire Sen. Robert Smith has raised little money for a long-shot 2010 Senate bid in his adopted state of Florida. But the Republican's former staff certainly is loyal to him.

Smith raised just $17,421 in this year's second quarter, a pittance compared to the raised by the leading Republican candidates, Gov. Charlie Crist ($4.3 million) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio ($340,000). Smith's few dozen donors included some former aides from his days representing New Hampshire in the Senate from 1991 through 2002.

Thomas L. Lankford, a former Smith defense aide who is now a vice president at Van Scoyoc Associates, gave $1,000 to his former boss.

Attorney Matthew Doheny is putting his money where his mouth is when it comes to his interest in New York's soon-to-be-vacant 23rd District seat. A fundraising report filed Wednesday shows that Doheny, a Republican, has already opened a campaign committee and loaned it $500,000 from his own pocket, despite the fact that the party hasn't even settled on a nominee for the special election.

Local party chairs are currently interviewing prospective candidates for the seat, which will be opened up when Republican Rep. John M. McHugh is confirmed as secretary of the Army. His nomination was sent to the Senate July 6. The race to succeed him is expected to be highly competitive.

There are no primaries for special elections in New York, leaving the job for picking each parties' nominee to the district's county chairmen. Doheny is one of nine Republicans being vetted by the district's GOP leaders, and fundraising -- or self-funding -- capabilities are no doubt one of the considerations.

The buzz among local observers, however, is that state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is the one to beat. The Watertown Daily Times reported earlier this month that Scozzafava has also gotten a jump on the money race, hiring a fundraising chairman.

Gary Peters

Peters' $434,000 during the first three months of this year ranked him fourth among Democratic freshmen and sixth among all Democratic incumbents in first-quarter fundraising, and he is likely to again be one of the top fundraisers this quarter.

Peters represents Michigan's 9th District, encompassing the suburbs north of Detroit. He used the region's economic anxiety to help him unseat eight-term Republican Joe Knollenberg in 2008, but the GOP is hoping to turn the tables in 2010 and political observers expect the race to be tight.

That is, if Republicans can get their act in gear -- Peters' leading challenger has yet to ramp up his fundraising activities, which is bound to exacerbate the challenge of closing the resource gap with the incumbent. Paul Welday, a public affairs consultant and former Knollenberg aide, reported raising less than $4,000 in contributions since announcing his candidacy April 15. Add to that personal loans totaling $101,000 and Welday ended the quarter with $105,000 cash on hand. No word back from the Welday campaign on the slow fundraising start.

Sandy Adams

Adams had indicated she was likely to run, and filed paperwork last week with the Federal Election Commission, but had yet to make her candidacy official.

Kosmas ousted Republican Rep. Tom Feeney last year in a GOP-leaning district.

Pat Anderson

On her newly launched Web site, Anderson said that the focus of her candidacy will be "common sense and reform."

"Herein lie the central themes of the Pat Anderson administration - individual liberty with a government that is limited, smart, and transparent," she wrote, in what sounded more like a decree than a stump speech. "My belief in these principles is not just an ideological faith. I will, and have, governed by these principles because they work."

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is dipping his toes into the national policy debate over health care.

Pat McCrory

This is noteworthy because the mayor is a potential congressional candidate and anything that looks like a testing-the-waters exercise attracts attention.

McCrory's name has been floated as a prospective candidate to take on freshman 8th District Rep. Larry Kissell. The traditionally Republican-leaning district backed President Obama 52 percent in to 47 percent for Republican nominee John McCain in 2008, but Republicans believe that without the Obama-generated Democratic turnout, Kissell is vulnerable in 2010.

Two Arizona Democrats are building up solid defenses in advance of 2010. First District Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and 8th District Rep. Gabrielle Giffords -- both members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline program to defend vulnerable incumbents -- both expanded their cash reserves in the second quarter of 2009 as they work to fend off likely Republican challenges for their seats.

Giffords raised $370,000 in the second quarter, boosting her cash on hand from $895,000 to an impressive $1.2 million. Kirpatrick raised less -- $261,000 -- but it helped her nearly double her available campaign funds from $241,000 at the end of March to $423,000 as of June 30.

Thus far, only Giffords has declared Republican challengers, led by GOP recruit and Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly.

Peter King (Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

King's congressional campaign fund reported raising $1.3 million in the bank at the end of June. He raised $246,000 in the second quarter of 2009.

That's nowhere near Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's $2.3 million first quarter fundraising total, or the $2.2 million she has on hand, but it is does put him on par with another likely candidate, Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney, who reported $1.3 million cash on hand at the end of March. Neither Gillibrand nor Maloney has disclosed their second quarter fundraising totals, which are due by midnight tonight.

Gallup's latest approval-to-disapproval ration based on July 10-12 polling was 58 percent to 36 percent, but the pollster provided a further analysis today looking behind those numbers and found a big divide in the reasons behind Americans' opinions.

The biggest factor in the approval numbers was the public's view of Obama's "leadership." Fifty-four center said they saw him favorably because of that factor, but of those who disapprove of Obama's performance, 65 percent attributed their opinion to their view of his leadership. Obama's stand on issues accounted for 17 percent of those who approve his performance compared to 24 percent who cited this for their disapproval. Fifteen percent liked Obama for his personal characteristics, while 24 percent of those in the disapproval camp did not.

Among those who liked Obama for his leadership, the biggest group (31 percent) said he was doing a good job under difficult circumstances. The biggest group among those who disapprove of Obama's leadership (24 percent) say it is because he is spending too much.

Connecticut Republican Peter Schiff is using donation levels over the next few weeks to gauge support for a potential Senate run in 2010. But he might want to make a note of the experience of political mentor, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, whose 2008 presidential campaign experience demonstrated that a huge number of donations do not necessarily denote electoral viability.

"My decision to run is largely dependent on the level of early support and contributions I receive from people like you," he wrote in the e-mail. Recent polling, he said, has convinced him the race is "winnable," and "now it's up to the people to show their support because no candidate can win this race alone."

If you needed confirmation that the 2010 Senate race will be a big-spending affair, it came in announcements this week from the campaigns of Democratic incumbent Arlen Specter, primary challenger Joe Sestak and likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey.

Sestak, the congressman from Pennsylvania's 7th District, said on Monday that he raised $1 million in the second quarter and has $4.2 million left to spend. Though Sestak has neither officially announced his candidacy not set up a Senate campaign account, he is permitted to use the funds in his House campaign account for a Senate race.

Americans favor passage of a major health care system overhaul this year by 56 percent to 33 percent although there is a sharp partisan divide on the issue and many shades of opinions on specific proposals, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 10-12.

There will be no political comeback in 2010 for former Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad.

Ramstad's admission last month that he was considering a run for the open Minnesota governor seat stirred up considerable buzz, but he quashed that Wednesday evening with an e-mail to local press announcing he would not be mounting a campaign.

Ramstad gave no reason for the decision, telling supporters just that he was "humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support from people across party lines" for a potential run. He also said he planned "to continue in public service," just not as governor.

Chet Edwards (Getty Images/Edward Cavanaugh)

Edwards' campaign said Tuesday that it had $869,000 cash-on-hand as July began -- the most that it has ever had 16 months ahead of a general election. Edwards had $684,000 cash-on-hand in mid-2007, $562,000 in mid-2005 and $307,000 in mid-2003.

Edwards' campaign said that the fundraising figures, which it will report in greater detail to the Federal Election Commission by Wednesday's deadline, demonstrate that the congressman "has the strong early momentum it will take to win in 2010."

Nevada Republicans can't seem to find a top-tier candidate to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. And new fundraising figures disclosed by Reid Tuesday won't help the GOP in those efforts.

Reid said his reelection campaign had pulled in $3.25 million in the second quarter and had $7.3 million in the bank at the end of June, an announcement clearly meant to deter a serious GOP challenge..

"Having raised nearly $11 million [total in the cycle], Reid has already brought in nearly half of the $25 million he is planning to raise, with 16 months left until the November 2010 election," his campaign crowed in a release.

Reid's second quarter haul is a jump from the $2.2 million he raised in the first quarter of 2009. He got a boost from a Las Vegas fundraiser attended by President Obama in May. The Democrat's full fundraising report, due to the Federal Election Commission by midnight Wednesday, will provide more detail on when donations were made and from whom.

No top-tier Republican has yet to jump in the race for the seat, despite Reid's sluggish poll numbers in Nevada. Former Rep. Jon Porter ruled out a run in June. The biggest name currently circulating is second-term Rep. Dean Heller, who represents Nevada's 2nd District and sits on the House's powerful Ways and Means Committee.

New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand on Tuesday picked up the endorsement of the feminist group Planned Parenthood's political arm -- the latest indication that there is no summertime lull for the appointed senator as she prepares for her 2010 election contest, and the possibility of a serious Democratic primary challenge by Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney.

Maloney, who is in her ninth House term representing a New York City district, is one of a number of prominent Democrats who sharply opposed the January decision by Gov. David A. Paterson to pick Gillibrand to succeed Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Illinois Republican Adam Kinzinger is one of several Republicans challenging first-term Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson. But his financial support from members of Congress inside and outside Illinois rate him as the favorite in the February 2010 primary.

Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia gave $5,000 to Kinzinger from his leadership PAC, Every Republican Is Crucial (ERIC) PAC. Illinois Rep. Aaron Schock, the representative from the Peoria-based 18th District, gave $5,000 from his leadership organization, Generation Y Fund.

Tim Walberg

Walberg's decision to run in 2010 -- which he had signaled was likely -- will be one of the key rematches in districts that the Democrats captured from the Republicans last year, expanding the House majority they claimed in the 2006 elections.

Schauer won by just more than 2 percentage points, and Democrat Barack Obama won the presidential vote by 6 points in the largely rural 7th District, where the biggest city is the cereal-making capital of Battle Creek. But the south-central Michigan district has a heritage as GOP turf that dates way back to the 1850s, when one of the founding meetings of the Republican Party was held in the city of Jackson.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's approval ratings have sunk to an all-time low, dragging down his chances against Republican challenger Chris Christie in this fall's gubernatorial race, a new Quinnipiac University Poll reports.

That's a gain for Christie from the ten point lead - 50 percent to 40 percent - he held over Corzine in June.

Americans say by 65 percent to 22 percent that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin does not have the ability to be an effective president, according to a CBS News poll conducted July 9-12.

Eighty-six percent of Democrats predictably hold that view, while independents agree by 55 percent to 30 percent. Even Republicans don't think she's equipped for the job by a 51 percent to 33 percent margin. Pluralities among all those groups - Democrats, Republicans and independents, don't think she will run for President in 2012.

The (minority) of Americans who believe the economy is getting better has dropped since last month and that's taken a toll on President Obama's approval rating which also fell since June, according to a CBS News poll conducted July 9-12.

Obama's approval to disapproval ratio is now 57 percent to 32 percent, still respectable, but a falloff from the 63 percent to 26 percent numbers he enjoyed in early June. That coincided with the percentage of Americans who believed the economy was getting better dropping from 27 percent to 21 percent, and those believing it was getting worse rising from 25 percent to 33 percent. Forty-five percent believed it was staying about the same.

Jim Gerlach

Gerlach's announcement on Tuesday gives the Republican primary field a battle-tested political pro -- but also leaves open his seat in the 6th Congressional District, a partisan battleground that almost certainly will prompt one of next year's strongest takeover attempts by the House Democratic majority.

The 54-year-old Gerlach is running to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Edward G. Rendell. He is entering a 2010 Republican primary, to be held next May, that probably will include state Attorney General Tom Corbett and former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan. The Democratic primary probably will include state Auditor General Jack Wagner; Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, whose home base includes Pittsburgh; and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox.

Robert "Bud" Cramer

Cramer, who represented northern Alabama's 5th District from 1991 through 2008, gave $68,000 in this year's second quarter to Democratic candidates and committees, according to a filing his still-active campaign committee made Monday.

Cramer's committee gave $50,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats. He gave $2,500 to the Blue Dog PAC and also gave money to House or Senate members who affiliate with that group of centrist Democrats who promote fiscal restraint: Reps. Bobby Bright of Alabama ($2,000), Dan Boren of Oklahoma ($1,500) and Lincoln Davis of Tennessee ($2,000) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas ($1,000). Bright will face a tough re-election race.

Cramer's committee also gave $4,000 to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who also faces the voters in 2010.

Though Cramer's contributions were generous, they amounted to a very small fraction of his overall campaign treasury. Cramer had $1.3 million in his account as July began.

Rep. J. Greshman Barrett raised far more than any of South Carolina's gubernatorial hopefuls in the second quarter, cementing himself as a top-tier contender for the Republican nomination.

Barrett pulled in $566,000 in donations for his governor campaign and transferred another $188,00 from his House campaign committee, giving him $755,000 in total receipts between April and June. The four-term House member reported $975,000 cash on hand in his gubernatorial committee at the end of June. His campaign said in a release that Barrett's congressional committee held another $500,000 in cash, giving him nearly $1.5 million total in the bank.

That puts Barrett on comparable footing with another leading Republican candidate, Attorney General Henry McMaster. McMaster has not formally announced his campaign but has been behaving like a candidate for months. He reported $1.2 million in cash in his attorney general campaign committee as of June 30, though he raised less than half of what Barrett did in the second quarter -- $232,000 total.

Kay Bailey Hutchison (Getty Images/Joshua Roberts)

Hutchison also announced Monday, at a news conference in her hometown of Dallas, that she raised $6.7 million for her campaign in the first six months of this year, ending what her campaign said was "the first phase" of her bid for governor. Hutchison earlier had transferred $8 million from her Senate campaign treasury to her account for the governor's race, which now reports more than $12 million in cash on hand.

"While phase one of the campaign was designed to ensure we have the resources to deliver Kay's conservative message to voters across our state, it is now time to begin delivering that message," wrote Rick Wiley, Hutchison's campaign manager, in a memorandum.

Mike Castle (Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

Castle, Delaware's sole House member, made the disclosure in a second-quarter filing Monday with the Federal Election Commission two days before a July 15 deadline that applies to all members of Congress and candidates.

Castle raised $125,000 during the reporting period, most of it from political action committees (PACs) and just $14,600 from individual donors. He actually raised more money, $186,000, in the second quarter of 2007, a majority of it from individual donors.

M. Jodi Rell (Getty Images/Neilson Barnard)

Rell raised $20,000 in the second quarter of 2009, just a fraction of what two prospective Democratic challengers, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, pulled in in the same period. A third Democrat, former state House Speaker James Amman, has yet to release his fundraising report for the period.

Bysiewicz raised $141,000 and Malloy $147,000, leaving the former with $171,000 cash on hand and the latter with $195,000 at the end of June. Rell, in contrast, reported just $71,000 in the bank.

Forty-nine percent percent of voters are opposed to the health care overhaul plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, while 46 percent are for it, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10-11. Two weeks ago, voters supported the plan 50 percent to 45 percent.

Opposition is higher among voters who have health insurance: 43 percent favor the plan but 52 percent oppose it. Those who strongly oppose it outnumber those who strongly favor it by two-to-one - 40 percent to to 20 percent.

Congressional passage of the plan by August, as the president had hoped, now seems unlikely, with Democrats arguing primarily over how to meet its estimated $1 trillion price tag. But public opinion could shift in either direction if agreement is reached and as details of the plan become clearer.

Americans favor Senate confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor by 53 to 33 percent, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 10-12. Thirteen percent had no opinion.

A CBS News poll conducted July 9-12 said 30 percent believed Sotomayor should be confirmed compared to 14 percent who disagreed, but 52 percent responded that they couldn't say yet.

When it comes to whether the public views her favorably or not, a different question than whether she should be confirmed, the CBS survey says 62 percent of the public are undecided or haven't heard enough. For the rest, 23 percent see her favorable and 15 percent do not.

Despite a heavy policy load that includes shepherding the Democrats' health care overhaul through the Senate, Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd somehow found time to conduct a good deal of fundraising over the past three months. The five-term incumbent announced Monday that he raised $1.2 million in the second quarter, besting his first quarter total of $1 million and leading all comers is what is expected to be a heavily contested 2010 race.

Dodd's campaign boasted that the senator "received more individual donations from Connecticut than any other state," after coming under criticism when its first-quarter fundraising report revealed just five Connecticut residents donated. The campaign also counted 1,700 small-dollar donors who contributed $200 or less, but did not release details on how much money it raised from large donors or political action committees. Dodd raised more than 40 percent of his contributions from PACs in the first quarter, with finance industry, health care and labor committees leading the way.

Andy McKenna

McKenna revealed Monday that he will forgo the race, a development that could pave the way for Kirk to announce his candidacy soon.

"As party chairman, my goal has been to build party unity," McKenna said in a statement Monday. "Mark Kirk and I met last evening as part of an ongoing discussion about the U.S. Senate race. I reassured Mark that if he chooses to be a candidate, I will not oppose him."

Andrew Cuomo (Getty)

Governing's "Ballot Box" blogger, Josh Goodman, raises an interesting question:

Did state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo signal that he will become a more vocal critic of Gov. David A. Paterson -- and perhaps challenge him in a Democratic primary?

No contender has emerged to challenge first-term Rep. Larry Kissell but Republicans say that if they can recruit a a strong candidate, they could retake that seat from the former schoolteacher.

GOP leaders say they're focused on finding the right candidate to take on Kissell, who unseated five-term Republican Robin Hayes in November.

"Larry Kissell won that seat in an anomaly year," said Chris McClure, executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party. "It was just a tough year in North Carolina." CQ Politics rates the race "Leans Democrat."

Illinois Rep. Mark Steven Kirk spent his Friday shooting down a story that said he was pulling out of the 2010 Senate race to succeed retiring Democrat Sen. Roland W. Burris.

After the Washington Post reported Friday afternoon -- shortly after Burris announced that he would not seek election in 2010 -- that Kirk would not run, the congressman told allies that the story was not true.

Kathy Lydon, the chief of staff to Illinois Rep. Judy Biggert, said that Biggert called Kirk after the Post item appeared and that Kirk told her it was incorrect. Biggert is backing Kirk for the Senate.

Democrat Alex Sink, Florida's state Chief Financial Officer, raised $2.4 million total for the 2010 governor's race, her campaign announced Friday, topping her major competitor, Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum.

McCollum's campaign announced he raised more than $1 million in just six weeks of fundraising.

Democrats still lead Republicans by 49 percent to 40 percent when it comes to which party Americans identify with, but that's down from the 13 point advantage they had in the first quarter of the year, according to a Gallup analysis of its polling data between April and June.

Leaned Party Identification, Quarterly Averages, 2009 Gallup Polls

Gallup says the smaller margin is due more to a drop in Democratic support than an increase in Republican support.

Norm Coleman (Getty)

Voters said by 54 percent to 26 percent that Coleman's handling of the recount made it less likely they'd support him for governor or some other office while 20 percent said it made no difference. Coleman is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of voters and favorably by 38 percent with 11 percent not sure.

President Obama's job approval rating has slipped from an average of 61 percent in June to 58 percent for the first eight days of July, with the largest of the drop being among independents, according to Gallup's tracking polls conducted July 1-8.

Obama started out the year with a 62 percent job approval rating among independents and now that has fallen to 53 percent. It was 59 percent in June. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late June also found erosion of independents' support for Obama.

Gallup said that, compared to where other first term presidents stood in July, Obama's approval rating is above-average only compared to Bill Clinton.

John Murtha (Scott Ferrell/CQ)

Murtha, who is chairman of the panel that oversees defense spending and a vigorous promoter of appropriations earmarks, got a $250 contribution in June from David L. Hobson, an Ohio Republican who served on Appropriations and retired from the House last year. The campaign committee of retired Pennsylvania Republican Joseph M. McDade (1963-99), a former Appropriations chairman, gave Murtha's campaign $2,000.

James W. Dyer, the former Republican staff director of the Appropriations Committee who now runs the appropriations practice at the firm Clark and Weinstock, gave $1,400 to Murtha's campaign committee.

Tom Perriello (Ryan Kelly/CQ)

The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) said Thursday that it will air a television ad in Perriello's 5th District, a conservative-leaning district in central and southern Virginia, that praises his vote for a climate change bill that most Republicans opposed.

The LCV spot comes on the heels of an anti-Perriello ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the campaign arm of House Republicans.

"Republican leaders in Washington are attacking Congressman Tom Perriello for supporting a new 'clean energy' jobs plan," the ad's narrator says. "But they aren't telling the truth. ... The truth is, Tom Perriello is fighting to make America a global leader in clean energy."

Democrats have slight advantages over Republicans in Ohio's 2010 races for governor and senator, but a lot of voters are still unfamiliar with most of the candidates, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted July 6-8.

In a Democratic primary, Fisher leads Brunner, 22 percent to 17 percent, with 61 percent undecided.

Though Fisher and Brunner are statewide officials, about half of respondents said they didn't know enough about them to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed said they didn't have an opinion about Portman, a budget and trade official to President George W. Bush.

This is no gentlemanly disagreement.

Pennsylvania's 2010 primary is still far off, but Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak are fully engaged in jockeying for advantage in their Democratic primary.

In a statement released by his campaign, Specter said that Sestak, a retired admiral who was first elected to the House in 2006, didn't formally affiliate with the Democratic Party until he became a candidate for office and also didn't vote in many elections.

Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist announced Thursday he has received more than $4.3 million in contributions for his 2010 U.S. Senate bid, and, as expected, tops his closest competitors.

The top Democrat in the race, Rep. Kendrick B. Meek, announced $1.2 million raised this quarter for a total of $3 million raised, including transfers.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry holds a 38 percent to 26 percent lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison with 27 percent undecided should she decide to challenge him in a Republican primary, according to a University of Texas-Austin Poll conducted June 11-12. The margin of error is 5.14 points.

Kinky's back!

President Obama is on the wrong side of the job approval numbers, with 51 percent disapproving somewhat or strongly of his performance while 38 percent give him positive marks. Twelve percent neither approve or disapprove.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

Andrew Raczkowski

The Federal Election Commission this week processed paperwork establishing "Rocky for Congress," a reference to Raczkowski's nickname.

Raczkowski served in the state House from 1997 through 2002, when he ran against veteran Democratic Sen. Carl Levin and lost by 61 percent to 38 percent. Raczkowski planned a rematch against Levin in 2008 but withdrew after his U.S. Army Reserve unit was called up for active duty.

A third poll has weighed in this week on how Americans are viewing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin after her surprise announcement that she was resigning this month, and this one says a majority of voters say her decision makes them less likely to support her if she runs for President and also believe she's not fit to hold the office.

Sarah Palin (Scott Ferrell/CQ)

Voters are split on how they view Palin, with 46 percent seeing her favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

Sean Duffy

In a web video, Duffy said "government's fiscal irresponsibility" prompted him to run and he hit out at the Democratic incumbent, 40-year lawmaker and current Appropriations Committee Chairman David R. Obey.

"David Obey, my opponent, he's the one who wrote the stimulus bill. But better yet, he's at the center of all this spending," Duffy said in the video. "And this spending is focused on Wall Street and on government, and I believe that small business is the way we're going to get out of this financial crisis."

Mark Kirk (Scott Ferrell/CQ)

A GOP source confirmed Wednesday that Kirk plans to seek the Senate seat of interim Democrat Roland W. Burris. Asked about his political plans by my CQ colleague Jonathan Allen, Kirk declined comment but allowed that, "I'm living on my phone right now."

It's common for a prospective candidate to give political activists and major donors a heads-up about an upcoming campaign before it is publicly announced.

Count Virginia automobile dealer Scott Rigell among the Republican challengers to freshman Democratic Rep. Glenn Nye in the state's 2nd District in and around Virginia Beach.

According to CQ MoneyLine, Rigell has been a frequent contributor to Republican committees and candidates in Virginia, including Ed Schrock, who represented the 2nd from 2001 through 2004, and Thelma Drake, who held the seat from 2005 through 2008, when she lost to Nye by 5 percentage points. Rigell said that Drake and other GOP officeholders have endorsed his candidacy.

New Hampshire's state Democratic party released a web ad Wednesday comparing Republican state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte to Alaska Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.

Ayotte on Tuesday announced her resignation as Attorney General to explore a bid for U.S. Senate. Palin on July 3 announced her resignation as governor and has left the door open to future political endeavors, including a presidential campaign in 2012.

Palin received harsh blowback from some colleagues for leaving office mid-session.

Lisa Madigan (Getty)

Madigan's decision was reported Wednesday morning by The Washington Post. The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported that Madigan will announce her political plans at a Chicago hotel at 3 p.m. eastern time.

Madigan would have been a strong candidate for either governor or senator. A daughter of longtime Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan, Lisa Madigan was elected state Attorney General in 2002 and overwhelmingly reelected in 2006.

Republican businessman Tim Barker this week exited the open seat race for Kansas' 1st District, but there's no shortage of Republicans eager to succeed Republican Rep. Jerry Moran in 2010.

Shadwick's entry and Barker's departure leaves the GOP field vying for the heavily Republican seat at six candidates.

Sue Bell Cobb

Alabama Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, who had expressed interested in running for the seat being vacated by term-limited Republican Gov. Bob Riley, told local media outlets last week that she will remain on the job in the state's court system.

"I am honored to have been sought out and encouraged to run for governor by so many Alabamians from all walks of life," Cobb said in a prepared statement. "Their support has been humbling and perhaps made this decision the most difficult I have ever been called upon to make."

Fifty-four percent of Americans say they would be not too likely or not likely at all to vote for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin if she runs for president in 2012 while 43 percent would be very or somewhat likely to support her , according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 6.

The hard cores for and against Palin are the 19 percent who put themselves in the "very likely" to vote for her category while 41 percent say "not at all likely."

Likelihood of voting for Sarah Palin, by political party.

Thirty-five percent of Republicans say they'd be very likely to vote for her and another 37 percent somewhat likely. Twenty-five percent rate their chances of backing her not too likely or not likely at all. Seventy percent of Democrats oppose her. The results among independents are the most mixed: a plurality - 39 percent - are not at all likely to vote for her joined by another 14 percent who describe themselves as not too likely. Nineteen percent deem themselves in the very likely camp and 25 percent describe themselves as somewhat likely.

While there's been a debate among pundits about whether Palin helped or hurt her presidential chances by announcing her resignation, 70 percent of those polled said it had no effect on the way they view her.

Richard Boykin

Boykin, a former chief of staff to Democratic Rep. Danny K. Davis who is now a lawyer and lobbyist, is interested in succeeding his former boss in Ilinois' Chicago-centered 7th District should Davis follow through on plans to seek the presidency of the Cook County Board of Commissioners. Davis announced an exploratory committee on July 5.

"It's something that we'd seriously consider, should he make the announcement that he's running," Boykin told CQ Politics on Tuesday from Hawaii, where he is vacationing.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter is proving to be a loyal Democrat.

Arlen Specter announcing in April he would run in 2010 as a Democrat. (Scott Ferrell/CQ)

CQ data show that Specter, since bolting the Republican Party at the end of April, has sided with Democrats on 17 of 20 votes that have pitted most Democrats against most Republicans. CQ refers to these party-line or near-party-line votes as "party unity" votes.

It's an admittedly small sample -- the Senate voted just 51 times between April 30, when Specter's party switch became official on the voting rolls, and the July Fourth recess, and just 21 of those votes were party unity votes. But Specter's 85 percent party unity score post-switch demonstrates a large degree of party allegiance for the senator.