The Eye

Holden is a member of the "Blue Dog" coalition of House Democrats who define themselves as fiscally conservative, and also is more conservative than many of his party colleagues on social issues. But his overall voting record isn't that of a party rebel. A Congressional Quarterly vote study shows that Holden sided with most House Democrats against most Republicans 93 percent of the time on mainly party-line votes taken in 2008.

McNally predicted that the Democrats' rise to dominance in federal politics over the past two election cycles will actually be a problem for Holden as he seeks to maintain his middle of the road image.

"It's not as easy to hide when you're in the majority party," McNally said. "You actually have to show leadership, and his voting record continues to reflect that he's not the Blue Dog Democrat that he portrays himself as."

Yet to make a serious run at Holden in 2010, Republican officials would have to overcome the recruiting problems have plagued them. They thought they might have a competitive candidate in 2004 when primary voters nominated Scott Paterno, a son of legendary Penn State head football coach Joe Paterno, but Holden cruised to victory by a 20 percentage-point margin. He won in even bigger blowouts in 2006 and 2008.

Retired Marine Corps Col. Frank Ryan, who sought the House nomination in 2004 but lost in the primary to Paterno, has established an exploratory campaign committee for the 2010 race. Since his first try for political office, he has served in the Iraq war, rebuilt his insurance business and lectured and written extensively on the economy.

Ryan said he is traveling through the district to see if voters are ready to elect a Republican. "I want to make sure the district is interested in the programs and platforms that I have and that they view the incumbent as someone they want to move against," Ryan said.

Although he is not yet actively fundraising, he said he hopes to raise $100,000 by the end of the third quarter, a benchmark that will help him decide if he will run in 2010 or wait until 2012.

That, however, appears a very modest fundraising target, considering that Holden spent $1.1 million on his very routine 2008 campaign, and still had so much money left over that he reported $538,000 in cash on hand as of March 31 of this year.

Republican Party officials and donors also will have to be persuaded of their chances in the 17th before making a major commitment to the 2010 race there. The GOP recently has had a major setback in Pennsylvania's House elections, and already has to prioritize efforts to try to win back the seats captured in 2006 by Democrats Jason Altmire of the 4th District, Joe Sestak of the 7th, Patrick J. Murphy of the 8th and Christopher Carney of the 10th, and in 2008 by Kathy Dahlkemper of the 3rd District.

In addition, the GOP will have to play tough defense in the 6th District, especially if four-term Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach, the survivor of a series of close House races, goes ahead with his prospective 2010 bid for governor. The 6th, located near Philadelphia, is one of only six House districts currently represented by a Republican that also favored the Democratic candidates in both of the past two presidential races, John Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

-- Gabriella Schwarz