April 2009 Archives

Illinois Republicans may have to start working on different strategies for 2010, depending on who wins the other party's Senate primary.

A poll released Thursday showed that Sen. Roland W. Burris, D-Ill., would lose by more than 2-1 to his most-likely Republican opponent, Rep. Mark Steven Kirk. In that theoretical head-to-head matchup, Kirk would be favored by 53 percent and Burris by 19 percent of voters.

The survey by Public Policy Polling found that if Burris isn't his party's nominee, the landscape for Kirk is much different.

Nation's 2008 Electorate Was Most Diverse In History

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Barack Obama, the nation's first nonwhite president, was voted into the White House by the most racially and ethnically diverse electorate in history.

According to a Pew Research Center report, nearly one in four voters in the 2008 presidential election was not white.

White voters comprised 76.3 percent of the 131 million people who cast a ballot in the 2008 presidential election, down from 79.2 percent in 2004 and 80.7 percent in 2000. Black voters comprised 12.1 percent of the 2008 electorate, compared to 7,4 percent for Hispanics and 2,5 percent for Asians.

California Democrats Launch House Campaigns in 44th and 45th

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Keep an eye on two adjacent House districts in California, where Democrats will be going all-out to convince voters who went for President Obama to oust their Republican members of Congress.

Two Democrats made their California campaigns official this week: Democrat Bill Hedrick in the 44th District and Democrat Steve Pougnet in the 45th District.

Hedrick, a member of the Corona-Norco Board of Education, announced Wednesday he will seek a rematch with Republican Rep. Ken Calvert after Hedrick's narrow 2008 loss to the incumbent. Calvert narrowly won re-election to a ninth term in November with just 51 percent of the vote over Hedrick, who received 49 percent.

The southern California 44th and 45th are among eight Republican-held House districts being closely targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for 2010. All eight districts were carried by Barack Obama last November.

Iowa GOP Rep. King Will Mull a While on 2010 Governor's Race

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Republican Rep. Steve King has has indicated that he is considering a challenge to Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in next year's race for governor of Iowa. And while King told CQ Politics Thursday morning that the matter isn't on his mind when he goes to sleep at night, he left the door open to the possibility.

"No decision has been made," King said in an interview at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

The adjournment of the state legislature's annual session -- which will start the run-up to the state's 2010 election season in earnest -- just occured on Sunday, and King said he's going to "let the dust settle."

Approval ratings for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland remain high, although a survey finds that most adults in his state think the economy there is bad and getting worse, according to a poll released Thursday.

Strickland, a Democrat, was elected in 2006 and is up for re-election next year.

Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said they approve of the way Strickland is handling his job, while 34% disapprove, according to the Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research.

Terry McAuliffe's two rivals for the Democratic nomination for governor of Virginia have identified a new target: his tenure as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

In a debate Wednesday night in Blacksburg, Va. -- 41 days before the June 9 primary, and the candidates' second debate in as many days -- former state Rep. Brian Moran noted that McAuliffe's service as party chief coincided with the first term of President George W. Bush (2001-05) and a period of Republican gains in Congress.

"Under your chairmanship, Terry, our Democratic Party lost 10 seats in the House, six seats in the Senate and the presidency of the United States to George W. Bush, the worst president in modern American history," Moran said.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter wasn't the only prominent Republican party-switcher in the news the past couple of days.

But former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee -- during an appearance on MSNBC's "Rachel Maddow Show" to discuss Specter's switch to the Democratic Party -- managed to sow some confusion about whether he has officially entered the 2010 race for governor of Rhode Island as an independent.

Chafee, in his national TV appearance Tuesday night, seemed to confirm his plans to stage that bid, just three weeks after unveiling an exploratory committee.

Republican Rep. Nathan Deal says he has some news to announce back home on Friday.

Deal said the decision by Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle to withdraw from the governor's race prompted him to consider running, and he wants his constituents to be the first to hear directly from him about what he's decided.

"People across the state were looking for someone... And I had to put it into consideration," Deal said Wednesday.

Madigan Polling Strong in Illinois

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She's not a candidate yet, but Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan would be strong favorite if she decides to run for either governor or senator, according to the latest voter survey by Public Policy Polling.

The survey of 415 likely Democratic primary voters April 24-26 found that Madigan leads current Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by 16 points, 45 percent to 29 percent, even though 56 percent of the respondents said they're happy with Quinn's job performance so far. Only 14 percent disapproved of his performance.

But Madigan drew a 74 percent favorable rating from respondents, which helps to explain why 44 percent of those surveyed said they would support her over other possible Democratic primary contestants, including Sen. Roland W. Burris, in a 2010 race for the Senate.

New Jersey Republican Chris Christie has pulled slightly ahead of incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, according to a Monmonth University/Gannett New Jersey poll seven months before voters choose their next governor.

The survey of 690 registered voters taken April 23-27 had Christie, a former U.S. attorney, leading Corzine by 4 points, 39 percent to 35 percent.

But Corzine still held a small advantage, 37 percent to 33 percent, over Bogata Mayor Steve Lonegan, who is facing off against Christie in the Republican primary June 2. In January, the same poll showed Corzine leading Christie 38 percent to 36 percent, and put him way ahead of Lonegan, 45 percent to 29 percent.

Party-Switchers Often Win Again

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How will Arlen Specter, the Republican-cum-Democratic senator from Pennsylvania, fare in next year's Senate election?

The political situation in Pennsylvania and the historical evidence suggest that Specter, who has the backing of the White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is heavily favored to win the Democratic primary in 13 months and also has the edge in a prospective general election against Republican former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, who had been challenging Specter in the GOP primary.

Robin Kolodny, a political scientist from Temple University in Philadelphia, told CQ Politics by e-mail that "voters don't usually punish party-switchers much."

Obama Favored in Numerous Ways at 100 Days

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There are more than 1,200 days between now and the 2012 presidential election, and President Barack Obama's handling of his job over that long haul will determine whether he will be granted a second term in the White House. But the battery of national polls timed to his 100th day since taking office on Jan. 20 -- a milestone that Obama reached on Wednesday -- show that he at least has gotten off to a popular start.

Surveys released Wednesday by the Gallup organization and by the polling unit at Connecticut's Quinnipiac University both showed Obama with strong job approval ratings that cut across demographic lines and reach beyond the president's base of self-identified Democrats.

The Gallup poll showed Obama was given a favorable job approval rating by 65 percent of 3,534 adult respondents in tracking polls conducted April 20-26. The poll, which has a 2 percentage-point statistical margin of error, showed 29 percent disapproved of Obama's performance. The Quinnipiac poll of 2,041 registered voters conducted April 21-27 showed approval ratings of 59 percent positive and 30 percent negative, with a 2.2-point margin of error.

gerlach.jpgPennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach says he's being encouraged to consider running in the Republican Senate primary.

Gerlach has been preparing for a possible gubernatorial bid in 2010.

But now that Sen. Arlen Specter has become a party-switcher, Gerlach said his phone lines have been burning up with inquiries about his interest in running instead for the Republican nomination for Specter's seat.

A recent report of Democratic Rep. Jane Harman's wiretapped conversation has drawn some criticism and calls for an investigation, but now Harman also appears to face a potential 2010 challenge from the left in California's 36th District.

Democrat Marcy Winograd said she is collecting donations for a 2010 rematch with Harman.

"The grassroots have been dissatisfied with her record for a long time," Winograd said. "I think the latest... is just icing on the cake."

The latest independent poll in the Virginia Democratic race for governor has Terry McAuliffe leading his two rivals, former state Rep. Brian Moran and state Sen. Creigh Deeds, ahead of the June 9 primary election.

So it wasn't a surprise that McAuliffe, a well-funded businessman and former Democratic National Committee chairman, was on the receiving end of some criticisms at a debate Tuesday.

Early in the debate, which was held in Danville, near the North Carolina border about 250 miles from Washington, D.C., Deeds noted that McAuliffe's 2007 book, What A Party!, listed the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as an accomplishment of the Clinton administration.

In Virginia, Republican McDonnell Favored for Governor

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A new poll gives Terry McAuliffe a double-digit lead over former state Rep. Brian Moran and state Sen. Creigh Deeds, his rivals for the Democratic nomination for governor of Virginia.

But that same poll shows the extent of challenges ahead for whichever Democrat is on the general election ballot: Republican Bob McDonnell leads each of them in general election match-ups, although Deeds is closest with a difference of 5 percentage points.

Still, a majority of likely Democratic voters who responded to the SurveyUSA poll say they still may change their mind before the June 9 primary.

Poll Numbers Show Promise for Obama's Agenda

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President Obama's popularity remains high at the 100-day mark of his presidency, says a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, with tentative support for some of his most complex policy goals, including health care and energy overhauls.

On energy, 53 percent of those surveyed approved of a proposal that would require companies to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming, even if it would mean higher utility bills for consumers.

The numbers are not so overwhelming on health care: Without being given a description, 33 percent said Obama's plan is a good idea, vs. 26 percent who said it's a bad idea. When given a description, 56 percent said they favored the plan and 33 percent opposed it.

Just yesterday, back when Arlen Specter was still a Republican, the Federal Election Commission processed paperwork for a new joint fundraising committee to raise money and then distribute it to Specter and 11 other Republican senators running for re-election next year.

Guess those papers will now have to be amended.

The FEC papers for the "2009 Senators' Classic Committee," were filled out last Friday by treasurer Keith Davis and reached the FEC on Monday. Other than Specter (whose "Citizens for Arlen Specter" campaign committee is listed on page 10), the other senators whose campaign committees are listed as joint fundraising participants are Robert F. Bennett of Utah, Jim Bunning of Kentucky, Richard M. Burr of North Carolina, Tom Coburn of South Carolina, Michael D. Crapo of Idaho, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, John Thune of South Dakota and David Vitter of Louisiana,

Five-term Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Arlen Specter's decision, announced Tuesday, to change his party affiliation to Democratic for his 2010 re-election campaign is the latest setback for the GOP in the northeastern United States, where the rival Democrats have grown increasingly dominant in recent years.

While Specter did not immediately state when he plans to start sporting the Democratic Party label, it seems certain to be soon, given that he is now persona non grata among Senate Republicans.

When his switch becomes official, he will join Democrat Bob Casey in giving Pennsylvania two Democratic senators for the first time since 1946. That was the last full year that Democrats Joseph F. Guffey and Francis J. Myers served together.

In 40 of the 62 years since, Pennsylvania had two Republican senators.

The bombshell announcement by Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter that he will leave the Republican Party and seek re-election as a Democrat dramatically reshapes the 2010 Senate race in his state.

In shedding his longtime party label, Specter has decided to avoid a potentially disastrous rematch in the Republican primary against former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, a conservative who nearly defeated Specter in 2004 and who is leading the senator in early polls.

As a result of Specter's decision to run as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear Favorite."

Race Relations Seen as Improving Under Obama

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The strong job approval ratings that Barack Obama has enjoyed over his first three months as the nation's first African-American president also appear to be improving perceptions of race relations in the United States -- particularly among blacks.

This conclusion is based on a New York Times/CBS News poll taken April 22-26 and released Tuesday. The poll showed 27 percent of 973 adult respondents said race relations had improved since Obama became president, while only 6 percent said they had worsened. A majority, 63 percent, said race relations had not changed, and 4 percent said they did not know or gave no answer.

The idea that race relations have improved received somewhat stronger agreement among the 212 black respondents to the poll than among the 701 white respondents. Race relations were seen as improved by 32 percent of blacks and by 23 percent of whites. There was no statistically significant difference on the question of whether race relations have gotten worse: 5 percent of blacks and 7 percent of whites stated that view. The view that race relations haven't changed was held by 65 percent of whites and 59 percent of blacks.

Obama's Popularity Undiminished

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With nearly 100 days of policy-making under his belt, President Obama remains in sync with Americans on the issues and his personal popularity remains high, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll.

In the survey of 2,019 adults conducted April 23-26, 57 percent said Obama agrees with them "on the issues that matter most" to them, nearly even with the 60 percent that said that of Obama in a survey taken less than a week before he was elected president. As he has transitioned from promising policy to making it, Obama hasn't lost much support for his agenda. At the same time, his personal popularity is taking off, according to the poll.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee triggered a war of words Monday with a certain outspoken Minnesota congresswoman after it launched a new Web site, Bachmann Watch.

The site purports to highlight the "extreme rhetoric and false claims" Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann "makes to bolster her outrageous statements." And it hits Bachmann, a two-term incument and frequent Fox News guest, for her assertions on cap-and-trade energy legislation, her record on earmarks, and government spending.

Criticism of Bachmann, a pariah among liberals, is certain to energize the Democratic base. But it also may generate support for Bachmann herself. At least that's what she's hoping for, after sending out a fundraising e-mail to supporters less than an hour after the DCCC sent word of its site.

No Strong Consensus on Interrogation Probe

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A new Gallup Poll shows 51 percent of Americans in favor of an investigation into the interrogation techniques used on terrorism suspects during the Bush administration, with 42 percent opposed to such a probe.

The poll, conducted April 24-25, also showed 55 percent of Americans believe in retrospect that using such techniques was justified, while 36 percent say it was not.

The Obama administration recently released documents that revealed the Bush administration's legal justification for using "enhanced interrogation techniques" such as waterboarding and sleep deprivation that many consider to be torture. Congress followed that release by issuing a report saying Bush administration officials in fact authorized the use of such techniques.

Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle's recent decision to drop out of the 2010 governor's race has prompted at least one Republican to alter his campaign plans: Republican state Sen. Eric Johnson announced Monday his decision to switch his campaign for lieutenant governor to the 2010 governor's race.

Johnson issued a statement saying he was prompted by Cagle's decision to end his gubernatorial campaign due to health concerns.

"Casey is a friend, a fine man, and a great Lieutenant Governor... He has earned the right to be our nominee and deserves the opportunity to take all the necessary time with his recovery," Johnson said.

While most of the prospective candidates for New York's 2010 special Senate election are engaged in a fundraising arms war, one Democrat is urging supporters to "donate modestly."

Scott Noren, an Ithaca, N.Y.-based oral surgeon and self-described fiscally conservative Democrat, plans to announce his Senate candidacy Tuesday at the National Press Club.

The political neophyte will have an uphill battle if he hopes to compete with the likes of fundraising powerhouse Kirsten Gillibrand, the current Democratic senator, and her other potential primary challengers, including Democratic Reps. Steve Israel, Carolyn B. Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy, while relying just on small donations.

Boxer Confirms Re-election Campaign for California Senate

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All signs had pointed to Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer running for re-election in 2010, but the California lawmaker made it official this past weekend at the state Democratic convention, according to the San Francisco Chronicle and additional media reports.

"I'm formally announcing, in front of this convention, that I am running again for the United States Senate," Boxer said Saturday in Sacramento.

Americans Divided on Interrogation Policies and Probes

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While yet another poll shows that President Obama enjoys strong public approval for the way he has done his job in the first 100 days, his most recent action - ordering the release of previously secret Bush administration records about interrogation of terrorism suspects - draws far less support.

The new survey also revealed divisions on the use of torture and whether there should be an investigation into Bush administration policies.

Sixty-nine percent of the public approves of Obama's job performance compared to 26 percent who do not, a net gain of five points since March, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted April 21-24.

Since the latest 100-day approval rating poll on Barack Obama is about the same as all the rest this week, we'll start with Congress where voters approve of the job congressional Democrats are doing by 50 percent to 40 percent and disapprove of Republicans on the Hill by 52 percent to 36 percent, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted April 22-23.

Forty-six percent of voters say that they'd back a Democrat for Congress in 2010 to help Obama pass his programs while 33 percent would vote Republican to put a check on his power. Seventeen percent say it's too soon to make that decision.

More than a decade after managing a campaign against Democrat Brian Baird, Republican David B. Castillo will launch his own bid against the current six-term congressman in Washington state.

Castillo, now a financial advisor, filed paperwork this week to run for Congress in the southwestern 3rd District, but said his desire to run was not based on the current lawmaker.

"I haven't really spent much time thinking about him," Castillo said of Baird. "I want to be a voice for those people who believe that taxes are too high, that government spending is out of control, and that there's better solutions to our economy than the same old tired 1970's solutions."

Two-thirds of Americans give President Obama credit for trying to be bipartisan but they have a dimmer view of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, particularly the Republicans, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 20-21.

By 66 percent to 30 percent, the public says Obama has made a sincere effort to work with members of the opposite party. Forty-four percent believe that of congressional Democrats compared to 50 percent who do not, and only 38 percent believe the Republicans have made a sincere attempt compared to 56 percent who say they have not.

Forty-one percent of self-identified Republicans say Obama has made a sincere attempt to work with the GOP as do 62 percent of independents.

A majority of Democrats (52 percent) and Republicans (55 percent) say the overall tone and level of civility in Washington has not changed. A third of Democrats say it has improved, but only 17 percent of independents and 11 percent of Republicans agree.

With 100-Day Mark Approaching, Obama Enjoying Broad Support

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The 100 day polls are being rolled out one-by-one and Gallup weighed in with its survey, conducted April 20-21, saying that President Obama has met or exceeded public expectations with his performance so far.

Similarly, an Allstate/National Journal poll conducted April 8-14 found broad support for Obama with a 61 percent job approval figure compared to 28 percent disapproving. The public believes the country is on the right track by 47 percent to 42 percent but on the economy, in specific, they say by 55 percent to 30 percent the country is headed in the wrong direction.

(Other polls on public views of Obama at the 100 day mark that came out this week were from Public Policy Polling and Pew Research Center).

McWherter Announces Bid for Tennessee Governor

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Mike McWherter

Democratic businessman Mike McWherter, son of former Gov. Ned McWherter, announced Thursday his intention to run for his dad's old job.

"I believe I have the tools needed to really help our struggling families and move our state forward -- and that is why I'm running for Governor of Tennessee," McWherter said in a statement.

Democrats have long been working to recruit McWherter for statewide office.

Westmoreland Will Run Again for House, Passes on Ga. Gov Race

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Lynn Westmoreland

Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland on Friday announced his decision to run for re-election to Georgia's 3rd District, ending speculation he would run for the open seat governor's race in 2010.

"While my decision will be good news for some and disappointing to others, I believe it's best for me and my family," Westmoreland said in a statement. The three-term congressman expressed his desire to continue representing his western Atlanta-area constituents, adding that he was "also excited about leadership roles" he has taken.

Westmoreland is a deputy whip, an appointed position.

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Martin Beeson

Martin Beeson, a Republican district attorney in western Colorado, has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to prepare a House campaign in the state's 3rd District, represented by three-term Democrat John Salazar.

Beeson is the district attorney in Colorado's 9th Judicial District, which covers the counties of Rio Blanco, Garfield and Pitkin. They are three of the 29 counties that are wholly or partly in the 3rd, a 54,000-square mile expanse of western and southern Colorado. In the 2008 presidential election, those three counties comprised about one-ninth of the total district vote, according to a CQ Politics analysis.

Specter Well Behind Toomey in Pennsylvania GOP Primary

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map24.gifPennsylvania Republican Sen. Arlen Specter badly trails primary challenger Patrick J. Toomey, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll 13 months before GOP voters will choose their Senate nominee.

The survey, taken of 490 likely Republican voters on April 21, had Toomey leading Specter by 21 percentage points, 51 percent to 30 percent. Forty-two percent of respondents said that they had either a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" impression of Specter, compared to 55 percent of Republicans who said they had "somewhat unfavorable" or "very unfavorable" feelings about the senator.

The comparable numbers for Toomey, a former House member from Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley, were 66 percent favorable and 19 percent unfavorable.

Brownback Leads as GOP Choice for Governor in Kansas

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Sam Brownback (Getty)

Republican Sen. Sam Brownback holds a strong lead in the 2010 race for Kansas Governor, according to a recent poll, but the race to succeed Brownback appears to be too close to call at this early stage.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 17-19 found Brownback led his strongest GOP competitor, Kansas Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, by 47 percent: 64 percent to 17 percent. The remaining 20 percent of respondents were undecided.

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Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (c) at a Pioneers of the NBA Symposium with Memphis Grizzlies owner Brian Heisley (l) (Getty)

Memphis Democratic Mayor Willie Herenton announced April 21 the formation of an exploratory committee in Tennessee's 9th District, according to news reports, potentially complicating Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen's re-election bid.

"My 30 years of public service has uniquely prepared me to represent Memphis at the federal level as our national leadership faces some very difficult challenges," Herenton said in a statement, according to the Memphis Commerical Appeal.

Herenton in 2006 publicly endorsed Cohen following Cohen's Democratic primary win in the open seat race.

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Joan Buchanan

California Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan has announced she will join the crowded Democratic field forming in California's 10th District to succeed Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher.

"There are times in our lives when an opportunity knocks quite unexpectedly," Buchanan stated in an open letter to supporters Wednesday.

"After consulting with hundreds of community leaders, voters, elected colleagues and activists across our region; after considering the extraordinary financial challenges facing the country; and after carefully evaluating where I can make the most significant contribution, I have decided that I will be a candidate for Congress in our district," Buchanan wrote..

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Joe Courtney

Second-term Democratic Rep. Joe Courtney has a second official Republican challenger -- businesswoman and former State Department official Daria Novak.

Novak, whose campaign statement of organization was posted Wednesday by the Federal Election Commission, confirmed to CQ Politics that she is running, and is planning an official kick-off event around the end of May. The first-time candidate intends to build a "real grass-roots campaign" with a focus on local organizing.

Novak's announcement comes after former Hebron Board of Finance member Matthew M. Daly told local reporters in March that he was running. Republican sources say lawyer and Navy veteran Sean Sullivan, who lost to Courtney, 32 percent to 66 percent in 2008, is mulling another run. And former state Rep. Andrew Norton may also be interested.

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Mullins McLeod

Democratic lawyer and businessman Mullins McLeod jumped in the 2010 South Carolina governor's race, saying he was confident he can win despite the state's Republican leanings.

"Unfortunately, some of our statewide Democratic candidates in the past have not run at the Republicans," McLeod told the Charleston Post and Courier "They've tried to imitate the Republicans, and I think that's why we lost. I'm going to run a modern, 21st century campaign that focuses on the issues that matter."

McLeod sent a letter Wednesday to delegates to the South Carolina Democratic party convention, which takes place this weekend, confirming his candidacy.

Colorado's Ritter Looks to be in Trouble for 2010 Gov Race

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Bill Ritter (Getty)

Colorado's first-term Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter, Jr. looks on shaky ground, for now, when it comes to re-election in 2010 with his job approval ratings flipping from positive to negative since January, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 17-19.

Forty-nine percent disapproved of the way he is doing his job compared to 41 percent who gave him positive marks, with 9 percent undecided. In January, he had a positive favorable-to-unfavorable ration of 47 percent to 40 percent.

Ready for 2012? Obama Leads in Four Potential Match-Ups

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In a different take on President Obama's 100-day ratings, Public Policy Polling found Obama's job approval ratings lower than in a Pew Research poll released today, but decided to take things a step further (actually four years further) and match him against potential GOP opponents in 2012. And by that measure, he's doing a lot better than potential Republican contenders.

Obama leads Newt Gingrich 52 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided; Mike Huckabee by 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided; Sarah Palin by 53 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided and Mitt Romney by 50 percent to 39 percent with 11 percent undecided.

Obama's Approval High at 100 Days

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Correction: The original version of this posting incorrectly said that 20 percent of those surveyed said their one-word impression of President Obama was that he was a "Socialist." In the Pew poll, this figure represented the number of individuals in the entire sample who chose that word, and not a percentage of the entire sample.

The 100-day mark that has become a media event for gauging the first-lap of new Presidents is upon us (President Obama will mark it next Wednesday with a town hall meeting in St. Louis), and a survey by the Pew Research Center says he is reaching the milestone with higher job approval ratings than most of his predecessors.

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Matt Entenza

Another Democrat has announced he's running for governor of Minnesota, and more may queue up to try to succeed Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty before the 2010 campaign season kicks into high gear.

On Thursday, former state Rep. Matt Entenza announced that he is running.

In a release, Etenza said his campaign "will revolve around three core principles: growing jobs by focusing on the potential of the clean energy economy, providing better educational opportunities to our children and those seeking higher education, and ensuring health care for all."

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's female Democratic colleagues are rallying around her as she prepares for a tough primary and general election, with a fundraiser next week in Washington, D.C.

An evening of "cocktails and conversation" hosted by the 12 Democratic senators at Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu's Washington, D.C., home is scheduled April 29th.

Those interested in co-hosting are asked to give $5,000 per political action committee or $4,800 per individual -- the maximum allowed in an election cycle -- with sponsors asked to give $2,500 per PAC and $2,400 per individual.

The fundraiser is a sign that Gillibrand is keeping her well-oiled fundraising machine chugging after an impressive first quarter where she raised $2.3 million and reported $2.2 million cash on hand. And such solidarity for Gillibrand's candidacy in Washington could bode ill for New York Democrats interested in challenging her in 2010 -- among them Reps. Steve Israel, Carolyn B. Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy.

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Chris Christie

Six weeks out from the June 2 primary for New Jersey governor, polls show Republican Chris Christie continuing to top his primary challengers as well as sitting Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

A poll of registered voters conducted April 14-20 by Quinnipiac University showed Christie, a former U.S. Attorney, besting his closest primary competitor by 9 percentage points. Christie led former Bogota, N.J. mayor Steven M. Lonegan 46 percent to 37 percent. State assemblyman Rick Merkt placed third among likely Republican voters with 2 percent of support.

Eye on the Senate: Bennet Has Work to Do to Hold Colorado Seat

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Michael Bennet (Getty)

Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed to fill the seat of Ken Salazar when he was tapped as Secretary of the Interior, has his work cut out for him if he is to put himself in a strong position for re-election in 2010, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 17-19.

Forty-one percent of voters disapprove of his job performance compared to 34 percent who give him positive marks, with 25 percent undecided. One of his weaknesses is with the 14 percent of the sample who are Hispanic and may still be unhappy that a Hispanic was not named to succeed Salazar. They disapprove of him by a 45 percent to 36 percent with 18 percent expressing no opinion. That compares to the 58 percent to 36 percent approval ratio that President Obama enjoys. Independents also disapprove of Bennet, by 43 percent to 32 percent with 25 percent undecided.

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John Garamendi (Getty)

Democrat John Garamendi, California's lieutenant governor, will announce today that he's giving up on running for governor and instead running for Congress.

Garamendi had publicly stated he was considering a House campaign for the seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher, who was tapped to serve as Undersecretary of State for arms control and international security.

In a press advisory, Garamendi said he expects to run for the seat should a vacancy occur.

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Sam Caligiuri

State Sen. Sam Caligiuri jumped on the bandwagon of Connecticut Republicans making hay of Democratic Sen. Christopher J. Dodd's low donor support within the state.

Caligiuri, who is running for Dodd's Senate seat, released a video Tuesday night on his campaign Web site that asks the question, "Who is Funding Chris Dodd's campaign?"

That add cites last week's Connecticut Post story in noting that Dodd's raised nearly $605,000 from close to 400 out-of-state donors, but only $4,250 from five Connecticut residents in the first three months of 2009.

"Don't let special interests, DC insiders and out-of-state cash buy our Senate seat," the video concludes, ending with a request for supporters to sign up and donate on Caligiuri's Web site.

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Jason Altmire (Getty)

Two junior members of the House Democratic majority have formed leadership PACs, which members of Congress use as fundraising vehicles to assist their congressional colleagues.

Reps. Jason Altmire, a second-term member from Pennsylvania, and Glenn Nye, a freshman from Virginia, are sponsoring the new PACs, which generally can give $5,000 per election to a candidate for Congress.

Altmire's PAC is called Southwest Pennsylvania Political Action Committee (SWPA PAC), a reference to the region in which his 4th Congressional District is located. Nye's committee, Tidewater PAC, also references his constituency in Virginia's 2nd District, a southeastern area that abuts the Chesapeake Bay and is dominated by the city of Virginia Beach.

Anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simcox is slated to announce Wednesday that he will challenge Arizona Sen. John McCain in a Republican primary in 2010.

A Simcox media coordinator confirmed that he has several media events scheduled across the state, including an announcement at the Arizona State Capitol in Phoenix. Simcox also has a campaign Web site set up -- www.simcoxforsenate.com.

"It's time to help put Arizona and America back on the right track by electing Chris Simcox to represent the Great State of Arizona in the United States Senate," the site says. "As a grass-roots, border security activist and founder of the original Minuteman Civil Defense Corps (MCDC), Chris has done more to make Arizona a safer and better place to live than most of the sanctimonious career politicians in Washington, D.C."

Newsom Officially Enters California Governor's Race

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Gavin Newsom (Getty)

San Francisco's Democratic Mayor, Gavin Newsom, on Tuesday officially announced his intention to run for governor of California in 2010.

Newsom, who had been operating an exploratory campaign for the open seat race, used multiple communication formats to declare his intention to run.

"I'm running for Governor because California needs a new direction," Newsom said in a statement. He also reached out to supporters through Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube.

Meek Leads in Florida Senate Fundraising

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Kendrick Meek talking to reporters in January after announcing his candidacy. (Getty)

Democratic Rep. Kendrick B. Meek has established himself as a fundraising leader in the earliest stages of Florida's 2010 open Senate race, though potential heavy-hitters threaten to knock him out of that position in the coming weeks.

Meek, who is serving his fourth term representing the Miami-area 17th District, reported to the Federal Election Commission $1.8 million raised through Mar. 31, which included $324,000 transferred from his House account. After spending, Meek reported $1.6 million on hand at the close of the first quarter.

Meek's totals trumped those of Democratic primary competitor Dan Gelber, a Florida state senator. Gelber raised $363,000 and reported $296,000 on hand.

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Michele Bachmann (Getty)

Who was the biggest donor to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in March, transferring $250,000 to the House Democrats' campaign arm from a candidate committee?

Speaker Nancy Pelosi? Nope. Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer? Another nice try, but wrong again.

The answer is actually someone who doesn't even serve in Congress: Elwyn Tinklenberg, a Minnesota Democrat who fell short in his bid last year to represent the 6th District north and east of the Twin Cities. His campaign committee, Tinklenberg for Congress, gave the quarter-million to the DCCC in two $125,000 installments, according to a campaign finance report the DCCC filed Monday.

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Greg Ball

It looks like it will be Hall vs. Ball in the 2010 race for New York's 19th District House seat. Republican state Assemblyman Greg Ball is planning to make an "Official Congressional Announcement for U.S. Congress" on May 9 in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., his exploratory committee told supporters in an e-mail sent Monday.

"Let's show Greg how much we support and appreciate him by having a great event with a great turnout to start off the campaign!!" wrote volunteer coordinator Jacqui Ambrosino.

All signs indicate Ball will announce that he is taking on second-term Rep. John Hall, though his communications director cautioned that the assemblyman is still in the decision making process.

Ball, 31, just completed a three-day exploratory "listening tour" across the district, which encompasses the lower Hudson Valley including part of Westchester County and Peekskill. The former Air Force lieutenant has served in the Assembly since 2007, where he is the ranking member on the Standing Committee on Corporations, Authorities and Commissions, which oversees the state's public and private corporations.

Gov. Paterson Sinks Ever Lower in New York Poll

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David Paterson (Getty)

New York Gov. David A. Paterson's handling of the state's and his own office's finances are driving his approval ratings ever lower. The latest poll from Siena Research Institute conducted April 13 to 16 found that 63 percent of registered New York voters had an unfavorable opinion of Paterson and 81 percent rated the job he is doing as governor as fair or poor. Both those numbers are the highest the poll has registered since it began surveying opinion about Paterson in the spring of 2008.

A majority of those polled said that three issues - the governor's negotiating of the state budget in secret, his approval of pay raises for his staff, and the way he has addressed the state's financial situation - have greatly contributed to his declining popularity

Republican Brogdon Enters Race for Oklahoma Governor

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Randy Brogdon

Republican state Sen. Randy Brogdon on Saturday announced his campaign for Oklahoma governor, complicating Republican Rep. Mary Fallin's own quest for the party's nomination.

"I'm Randy Brogdon. I'm a conservative and I'm running for governor," Brogdon announced April 18 at the state party GOP convention in Oklahoma City.

Fallin, also a conservative, was re-elected in November to a second term representing the Oklahoma City-area 5th District. Fallin retains a statewide profile stemming from her service as Oklahoma's lieutenant governor from 1995 to 2007.

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Paul Hodes (Getty)

Democratic Rep. Paul W. Hodes is off to a $250,000 headstart on his potential competition for New Hampshire Senate, according to a quarterly report filed by the two-term lawmaker.

Hodes was the first major candidate to declare his intention to run for the seat held by Republican Sen. Judd Gregg and he has yet to draw major competition from either party.

His disclosure report shows that Hodes transferred $39,000 that had been donated to his House campaigns to seed his Senate account. His new campaign had $254,000 in the bank as of Mar. 31.

Connecticut Republicans leapt on the news that Democratic Sen. Christopher J. Dodd only tallied 5 donations from Connecticut residents in the first three months of 2009, hoping they can use it to rake in more cash for themselves.

Both Republican Senate challenger Rob Simmons and the state GOP sent out e-mail fundraising appeals Friday playing off a report in the Connecticut Post that only a $4,250 of Dodd's $1 million in total receipts in the first quarter came from Connecticut donors. Five Connecticut donors, to be exact.

"Let's show Senator Dodd what it means to run a real grassroots campaign based on Connecticut values," Simmons' e-mail to supporters said. The former 2nd District House member pledged to "personally call 5 Connecticut supporters who donate online before the end of the day tomorrow" to thank them. "That's as many Connecticut donors as Senator Dodd reported having in three months!"

Specter Knows Who His Friends Are

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Arlen Specter is getting by with a little help from his Senate friends.

The five-term Pennsylvania Republican, who faces a tough primary challenge from conservative former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, received donations from 10 Republican senators in the first three months of this year.

The pro-Specter senators, who donated from either their candidate committees or their leadership PACs, include Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky; John Cornyn of Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee; and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the Senate GOP Conference chairman.

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Frank Kratovil

What a difference a year makes.

The campaign of Maryland Democrat Frank Kratovil, Jr. took nine months to raise just over $250,000 for the February 2008 primary.

It's now 2009. Kratovil is a member of Congress, and his campaign reports hauling in $301,830 during the first quarter of this non-election year. He not only raised a lot, he raised it in the style of an incumbent -- relying on political action committes for nearly three-fourths of the campaign's quarterly take.

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Roland Burris (Getty)

The tenuous 2010 election prospects of appointed Illinois Democratic Sen. Roland W. Burris couldn't be dramatized more starkly than the fundraising numbers his campaign released Thursday. He raised just $845 in the first three months of 2009.

Burris wasn't a candidate or even a senator for the entire first quarter -- he's only been in the Senate since mid-January.

In addition to that tiny pool of receipts, the campaign reported more than $111,000 in debts.

California House Special Produces Two Fundraising Standouts

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The field for the May special House election in California's 32nd District is packed with 12 candidates of all parties. They all are seeking to succeed Democrat Hilda Solis, who resigned following her confirmation as President Obama's Labor secretary.

But two of the 12 -- both top-tier contenders in the overwhelmingly Democratic, Hispanic-majority district -- stood out for their fundraising prowess in first-quarter campaign finance reports, which were filed with the Federal Election Commission by the deadline last midnight.

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Jim DeMint (Getty)

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint raised $699,000 in the first three months of the year and ended March with $2.2 million cash on hand, his campaign disclosed Thursday.

But the first-term Republican incumbent, who is up for re-election in 2010, is not resting. His campaign also announced a roster of six finance co-chairmen, which he deemed the "'Dream Team' of Palmetto State fundraisers." Among them are former Ambassador to Canada and former Speaker of the state House, David Wilkins and former state Republican party chairman and Spartanburg financial adviser Barry Wynn.

For some congressional candidates preparing early for the 2010 elections, the best seed money is their own personal funds.

Suzan DelBene, a Democrat from Washington state, and Kansas Republicans Dick Kelsey and Tim Barker all reported six-figure personal loans to their campaigns in this year's first quarter, according to just-filed campaign finance documents. There is no limit on how much personal money a candidate can put into his or her own campaign.

DelBene, a technology executive who is running against Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in the state's 8th District near Seattle, contributed or loaned her campaign $209,000 -- about two-thirds of her total first-quarter receipts of $315,000. Her personal funding enabled DelBene to post more overall receipts than Reichert, who raised $195,000 during the reporting period.

The April 15 deadline to file campaign finance reports also applied to the four major candidates for the Virginia governorship this year. The three Democrats and one Republican combined to raise $8 million in the first three months of the year.

A majority of those funds was raised by Terry McAuliffe ($4.2 million), who whetted his fundraising skills as the chairman for the Democratic National Committee and as a longtime strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Benefiting from Virginia's lack of limits on political contributions, McAuliffe reported 20 contributions of at least $50,000 that cumulatively totaled $1.85 million -- or close to half of his total take for the reporting period. He received $251,000 from Haim Saban, the president of an eponymous entertainment company, and $250,000 from producer Steve Bing. Both men also gave generously to the Democratic Party during McAuliffe's DNC years.

Eye on the Senate: In Florida, Who's On First? No One.

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The decision of Florida Republican Sen. Mel Martinez not to seek a second term has left a void on both sides of the political spectrum when it comes to the 2010 race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 6-13.

Some of the high-profile prospects decided early-on not to seek the seat, such as former GOP Governor Jeb Bush and the state's chief financial officer Alex Sink.

Popular Republican Gov. Charlie Crist could change all that if he decided to seek the seat, although Quinnipiac says that voters by 42 percent to 26 percent would rather see him remain as governor. If Crist did run in a GOP primary against a list of potential candidates tested in the poll, he would garner 54 percent of the vote with all others in single digits.

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Carolyn Maloney (Getty)

New York Democratic Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney raised $427,000 for her House campaign treasury in the first three months of 2009 and ended March with $1.1 million in the bank.

That is more money than she needs to defend her safely Democratic seat in the 14th District, located on Manhattan's East Side and in part of Queens. But it would come in mighty hand were Maloney to launch a special election primary challenge in 2010 to appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- a possibility that the nine-term congresswoman hasn't ruled in, but also hasn't ruled out.

Maloney had publicly stated her interest in the Senate seat that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton vacated after she became secretary of State in the Obama administration. But Democratic Gov. David A. Paterson gave that appointment to Gillibrand, who had just won election to a second House term. Maloney has kept a relatively low profile since, but her first-quarter fundraising suggests she still is considering a Senate primary as an option.

More Than Half of Adults Used Internet to Follow 2008 Campaign

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The Internet became even more ingrained in American politics during the 2008 campaign with nearly three-quarters of web users going online to look for news and information or to communicate with others about politics, according to the Pew Research Center which gathered the data between Nov. 20 and Dec. 4 of last year.

That number represents 55 percent of the adult population and Pew says this was the first time that more than half of the voting age population went online to connect to politics during an election cycle.

Six in 10 used the internet to get news or information about the campaign, representing 44 percent of all adults, and nearly one-fifth did so on a daily basis.

Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., showered a little brotherly love on Virginia gubernatorial candidate Brian Moran in late March, according to the former's quarterly filing with the Federal Election Commission.

Congressman Moran gave former state Rep. Moran $50,000 on March 25, according to the report.

Brian Moran will need all the fundraising help he can get as he is matched up against former Democratic National Committee Chairman and chief Clinton fundraiser Terry McAuliffe in the party's primary.

McAuliffe reported raising $4.2 million in the first quarter of 2009. Moran racked up $807,000, meaning his brother's contribution accounted for more than 6 percent of his total.

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Eric Cantor (Getty)

Virginia Republican Rep. Eric Cantor, the House minority whip, raised close to $1 million in this year's first quarter. That made Cantor -- the second-ranking member of the House Republican leadership -- the most prolific early fundraiser among all House members as the 2010 election cycle got under way.

Cantor's campaign report, filed with the Federal Election Commission by last midnight's deadline, listed $964,000 in total receipts.

Cantor raised $382,000 from individuals and $341,000 from political action committees (PACs) and also transferred $226,000 from Cantor Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee that divides its proceeds among Cantor's campaign committee and other Republican committees.

casablanca.jpgClaude Rains' Captain Renault would be shocked, shocked to hear this.

The political arm of The Club for Growth, the conservative group that promotes cutting taxes and federal spending, is endorsing its former president, Pennsylvania Republican Patrick J. Toomey, who left the organization just this week to announce a Senate primary campaign against Republican incumbent Arlen Specter.

The endorsement by the Club's PAC was announced by Toomey's chosen successor, former Indiana Rep. Chris Chocola, who lauded Toomey's "tenacious ability to stand up to anybody in Washington, even if it was his own party's leadership, if they sought to infringe peoples' economic liberty."

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Charlie Justice

The historical evidence points to Democratic congressional losses in the 2010 election, the midpoint of President Obama's term.

Yet Democrats are trying to use Obama's landslide victory and their big congressional gains in 2008 as momentum to solidify their gains in the next election. They plan forays even in districts where the party has been uncompetitive such as Florida's 10th District, which includes most of St. Petersburg and is represented by Florida Rep. C.W. Bill Young, who is serving his 20th term in the U.S. House.

They will try to take on Young with Democratic state Sen. Charlie Justice who announced his candidacy to represent the 10th, which also includes all of Largo and Pinellas Park.

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd's shaky status in Connecticut hasn't scared away too many donors, it seems.

The five-term Democratic incumbent reported just over $1 million in total receipts in the first three months of 2009, his report to the Federal Election Commission states.

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Christopher J. Dodd (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

Dodd ended March with $1.4 million in the bank.

Dodd's cash is likely to give him an edge against two Republican challengers, former Rep. Rob Simmons and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, who both announced they would run for the seat in March.

Recent polls show Dodd trailing both men in hypothetical match-ups, but neither Simmons nor Caligiuri has the name recognition or fundraising clout of Connecticut's senior senator.

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Steve Israel (Getty)

Rep. Steve Israel had a healthy fundraising quarter for a congressman but will need to rev up his efforts if he wants to run for Senate in 2010. Israel, a Democrat representing the 2nd District on Long Island, raised $280,000 in the first three months of 2009 and closed March with $1.7 million, a Congressional aide reported.

Israel has yet to file his first quarter report, which is due to the Federal Election Commission by midnight Wednesday.

Israel had demonstrated his fundraising prowess in past campaigns, raising large sums for the Democratic party as well as for his own safe House seat. He will need to rally his entire fundraising network and then some to mount a credible primary challenge to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and statewide general election campaign, something he has not ruled out.

Former Knollenberg Aide Looks to Redeem Boss's Loss

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Oakland County Republican Paul Welday is going to try to do something his former boss, ex-Rep. Joe Knollenberg couldn't do: beat Democrat Gary Peters.

Welday announced Wednesday that he was mounting a campaign to unseat Peters in Michigan's 9th District, which takes in suburban Detroit, including eastern Oakland County. Welday used to be the chief of staff for Knollenberg, an eight-term incumbent whom Peters upset in 2008.

"For over six years Michigan's economy has been in the tank, and now America is feeling much the same pain we have become all too familiar with," Welday said during an anti-tax Tea Party in Troy, Mich. "While we have been promised hope and change, what we are getting from our current congressman is grandstanding and massive deficit spending."

Georgia Lt. Gov. Cagle Ends Bid for Governor

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Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle announced Wednesday afternoon that he is no longer seeking the Republican nomination for governor in 2010.

His decision, which he attributed to health problems, coincidentally came on the same day that a newly released poll showed Cagle as a leading contender for next year's primary.

Cagle said, however, that he would seek a second term as lieutenant governor, after a 2006 victory that made him the first Republican to hold that office in state history.

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Robin Carnahan

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, one of the Democratic Party's top candidates for a Republican-held Senate seat in the 2010 election cycle, raised more than $1 million in this year's first quarter.

Carnahan, the daughter of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan, reported $1.05 million in total receipts since organizing her campaign in early February. About four-fifths of her first-quarter take came from individual donors.

Though the primary election is 16 months away, Democratic officials in Missouri and Washington, D.C., are treating Carnahan as if she is already their party's nominee for the seat of retiring four-term Republican Christopher S. Bond.

Minnesotans are starting to get restless about their lack of a second senator, a survey by Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll found that 63 percent of voting-age Minnesotans surveyed said they believe Republican Norm Coleman should concede his race against Democrat Al Franken.

The telephone survey conducted April 14 and 15 also asked whether Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty should sign the election certificate naming Franken the winner and whether Franken should be seated right away.

Texas Rep. Joe L. Barton, whose campaign lost $703,500 in the financial markets last year, reported Wednesday a $104,800 hit he took in the first quarter of 2009, not including income from interest-bearing checking accounts.

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Joe L. Barton

Much of the losses are attributable to the plummeting value of stock Barton's campaign holds in two companies -- General Electric and General Motors -- that are regulated by the Energy and Commerce Committee, where he is the top ranking Republican.

Barton's report to the Federal Election Commission shows $57,800 in losses from GE stock in the first three months of 2009 and $12,600 in losses from GM.

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Joe Simitian

Veteran California Democratic Rep. Michael M. Honda has not been shy about his interest in an appointed position in the Obama administration. And though he has not received one yet, Democratic state Sen. Joe Simitian has sent a strong signal of interest in a potential campaign for Honda's 15th District seat -- by reporting $344,000 in receipts during the first quarter of 2009 for his recently established House campaign account.

Simitian, a political ally of the five-term congressman, says he has no intention of challenging the incumbent for the seat. But he wants to be ready in case Honda does get tapped by President Obama for an executive branch post and vacates the 15th District seat, which would prompt a special election.

"Mike Honda has my enthusiastic support for as long as he wants it," Simitian told CQ Politics. "The funds were raised in anticipation of a possible special election in 2009."

Poll Finds Plurality Saying U.S. Is Now on the Right Track

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A plurality of registered voters now think the country is headed in the right direction with that view held by an overwhelming number of Democrats, a majority of independents but rejected by almost two-thirds of Republicans, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted April 1-3. Marist listed ten polls dating back to January on this question, and today's was the first where "right trackers" outnumbered "wrong trackers."

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Richard Burr (Getty)

If North Carolina's Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to challenge first-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr in 2010, the race "automatically becomes a tossup," according to Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 8-11.

Cooper leads Burr 41 percent to 37 percent with 22 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 points. That doesn't sound like a whopping lead, but PPP's Dean Debnam says, "It's quite unusual for an incumbent who doesn't have major ethical problems to trail an unannounced challenger."

Thune Banks $4.4 Million in First Quarter

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John Thune (Getty)

South Dakota Sen. John Thune looks to be in the drivers seat in his 2010 re-election bid , thanks in part to his bulging bank account.

Thune announced Wednesday that his campaign raised $880,687 in the first quarter of 2009, giving him $4.4 million in cash on hand. "We had a successful first quarter, and we will continue the necessary work of raising the resources we need to prepare for a competitive election in 2010," Thune said in a release announcing the haul.

The first-term Republican, who upset Majority Leader Tom Daschle in a fierce contest in 2004, has no declared challengers yet. His toughest prospective Democratic opponent, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, seems to be leaning toward a governor's race if she runs for statewide office.

Crist Rides Wave Of Approval Despite Florida Economic Woes

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Charlie Crist at the Daytona 500 in February (Getty)

Unlike poor Jon Corzine in New Jersey, a Democrat whose popularity has been tanking because of the economy in that state, Florida's Republican governor, Charlie Crist enjoys a 66 percent job approval rating even though whose state has been suffering through one of the worst downturns, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 6-13. Only 23 percent of voters disapprove of the way Crist is doing his job.

Florida voters say by 58 percent to 28 percent with 14 percent undecided that Crist deserves re-election in 2010 and that includes 52 percent of Democrats. Against a generic Democratic opponent, Crist leads 47 percent to 27 percent with 26 percent undecided and, in answer to this question, a quarter of Democrats say they'd back Crist.

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John Carney

Democrats are serving notice that they will make their strongest effort to win Delaware's at-large U.S. House seat since long-popular Republican Rep. Michael N. Castle first won it in 1992.

John Carney, the state's former lieutenant governor and competitive contender for the 2008 Democratic nomination for governor, announced Wednesday that he will seek Delaware's only House seat.

Carney promised to be "a strong, independent voice in Congress for all Delawareans" who will work with the Obama administration "to get our economy moving again and to address the significant challenges we face as a country."

Specter's Primary Fight: It's Official

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After a long drumroll, Sen. Arlen Specter finally has the long-threatened 2010 primary fight.

Former Rep. Pat Toomey sent out a news release this morning announcing that he has posted a videtaped message on his campaign web site.

"If Pennsylvania's senior senator stood up for taxpayers and job creation - instead of routinely voting against taxpayer interests - I would feel less compelled to run. Unfortunately, he does not," says Toomey.

Every election cycle, a handful of congressional candidates who fell short in the previous election plan rematch campaigns, confident that an earlier start and better preparation will lead them to success the second time around.

One rematch-minded candidate in the 2010 cycle is Alabama Democratic lawyer Josh Segall, who announced Tuesday that he will challenge Republican Rep. Mike D. Rogers in the 3rd District, which includes part of Montgomery and most of Alabama's border with Georgia.

Segall, who won 46 percent of the vote against Rogers in 2008, said in a statement that "it's time for a new direction" and that he is a "fiscal conservative who will work to create and attract 21st century jobs to east Alabama so that hardworking people can get ahead."

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Chris Chocola (Getty)

The political action wing of the anti-tax Club for Growth has endorsed Republican Sens. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Jim DeMint of South Carolina -- even though Coburn isn't sure he's running yet.

The twin endorsments for 2010 would normally come as little surprise, as the two are the most readily identifiable fiscal hawks in the Senate.

"It is hard to find a more devoted duo to the principles of limited government and economic freedom than Sens. Coburn and DeMint," said the Club's new president, former Indiana Republican Rep. Chris Chocola.

Pennsylvania Democrat Joe Torsella, a candidate for the Senate seat of Republican incumbent Arlen Specter, raised nearly $600,000 in the final six weeks of this year's first quarter, his campaign said Tuesday.

Torsella, a former Philadelphia deputy mayor who also headed the city's National Constitution Center, began fundraising in mid-February and has $584,000 cash-on-hand.

Torsella's first-quarter receipts came almost exclusively from individual donors, according to report summary pages his campaign provided to CQ Politics. And nearly all of the money he raised from individuals was itemized, meaning that the funds came from contributors who gave at least $200.

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Kinky Friedman on the campaign trail in 2006. (Getty)

Richard "Kinky" Friedman, the iconoclastic musician who won 12 percent of the vote as an independent candidate for the Texas governorship in 2006, is laying the groundwork to run for the governorship next year as a Democratic candidate.

In a letter on his Web site that was addressed to "fellow Texans," Friedman said he could stitch together a winning coalition of Democratic and independent voters to wrest from Republican control an office that a Democrat last won in 1990.

"I intend to run a serious campaign, one that grows the party," Friedman said. "I intend to visit and listen to the voices of neglected communities, small towns, suburbs, and rural areas, often where Democrats have lately feared to tread."

State Sen. and former gubernatorial candidate John Marty is making another run for Minnesota's governor's mansion, he confirmed on Monday. The Democrat -- who lost in 1994 general election for governor -- launched his official campaign in front of supporters at a rally in St. Paul, saying his decision "grows from my great love for our great state."

Marty, a 22-year veteran of the Minnesota Senate, promised "ethical, long-term far-sighted leadership," and said he would bring his legislative commitments to universal health care, stronger ethics regulations and social justice to the executive branch.

He is one of what is likely to be a growing field of Democrats jockeying for the post. Six other Democrats have also opened exploratory fundraising committees, including former U.S. Sen.Mark Dayton, state Sen. Tom Bakk, former state Sen. Steve Kelley, state Rep. Paul Thissen, former state Rep. Matt Entenza, and Ramsey County Attorney General Susan Gaertner.

Immigration Overhaul Ranks Low in Voter Priorities

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While President Obama is reportedly making preparations for a new push on immigration, the issue ranks at the bottom of five priorities that Rasmussen reports presented to voters in a poll conducted April 11-12.

Forty-one percent put top priority on reducing the deficit, 26 percent on health care reform, 11 percent on finding new energy sources, 9 percent on ensuring every child has access to a good education and 5 percent on passing a comprehensive immigration overhaul.

The National Republican Congressional Committee isn't letting Democrats take a break from Washington politics over the spring recess. The party committee is going on the air this week with a mix of television ads, radio ads and robocalls accusing 43 House Democrats in swing districts of supporting "a reckless spending spree" by voting for the recently passed budget resolution (H Con Res 85).

The ads -- an example of which, targeting Rep. Zack Space of Ohio, is on YouTube -- accuse the Democrats in question of joining Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to push through more than $1.2 trillion in new spending since the 111th Congress began.

Public Trusts Obama on the Economy More Than Anyone Else

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President Obama by far commands the highest level of trust to do the right thing on the economy compared to any of the other players in government whether in his administration, on the Hill or at the Fed, Gallup poll conducted April 6-9.

Seventy-one percent said they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in Obama compared to 51 percent for Democratic leaders in Congress, 49 percent for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, 47 percent for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and 38 percent for Republican leaders in Congress.

Nearly all Democrats put Obama on the top of their list and so do 68 percent of independents. Republicans trust their congressional leaders the most with 57 percent putting their confidence in them, with Obama second at 38 percent. Bernanke is trusted most by Democrats (64 percent). Forty-four percent of independents have confidence in him and only 36 percent of Republicans share that.

Ex-Judge Moore Mulls Another Monumental Bid in Alabama

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Moore in a video presentation at a church in 2003 during controversy over Ten Commandments monument. (Getty)

Republican Roy Moore, a conservative activist known for his former role as Alabama's "Ten Commandments" judge, says he is very "inclined" to join the 2010 race for the state's open governor's seat.

Moore, who discussed his possible candidacy in an interview with the Associated Press, now heads Foundation for Moral Law, a conservative group with a central focus of religion in public life. He would be seeking to succeed a political rival, term-limited Republican Bob Riley, to whom he badly lost the 2006 Republican primary for governor.

Moore had been an elected chief justice of the state Supreme Court. But he was ousted from the post by a state court panel in 2003, after he ignored a federal court ruling ordering the removal of a granite momunent to the biblical Ten Commandments that he had installed in the state Supreme Court building two years earlier.

Former Pennsylvania Rep. Patrick J. Toomey announced Monday that he is stepping down as president of The Club for Growth, a conservative political organization he has headed for the past four years.

Toomey's move appears the latest signal that he intends to seek a 2010 rematch of his close 2004 primary loss to Sen. Arlen Specter, a prominent Republican centrist who is gearing up to bid for a sixth term.

Chris Chocola, a Republican who represented Indiana's 2nd District in the U.S. House from 2003 to 2007, is succeeding Toomey as Club for Growth president.

Stimulus Politics Color Texas Governor's Race

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The Texas governor's race already is testing what could be a key question in the 2010 elections: Just what do Republicans want to hear from their politicians when it comes to the stimulus?

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Rick Perry (Getty)

The GOP primary for governor between incumbent Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison promises to be one of the most intriguing, expensive elections of 2010, with the winner a favorite to prevail in the general election. The race also promises to be one the longest -- voters won't go to the polls for nearly a year, but already the two candidates are in campaign mode. The most recent source of disagreement: The stimulus.

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Carolyn McCarthy (Getty)

If New York Rep. Carolyn McCarthy wants to mount a serious Democratic primary challenge to appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, she's going to have to pick up her fundraising pace considerably.

McCarthy, who has said publicly that she is considering a Senate primary bid, reported $145,000 in total contributions for her House campaign committee in the first three months of the year. That left McCarthy, the seven-term representative of the 4th District on Long Island, with $262,000 in cash on hand as of March 31, the end of the year's first quarter.

Although federal law would allow McCarthy to transfer any House campaign reserves to a Senate campaign account, what she has now is a pittance of what Gillibrand already has piled up.

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Brian Moran

Former Delegate Brian Moran leads onetime Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe and state Sen. Creigh Deeds among Democrats in the race for the party's gubernatorial nomination, but his margin over McAuliffe is modest and the number of undecideds high, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted Apr. 6-8.

Moran scores 24 percent of voters to 19 percent for McAuliffe and 16 percent for Deeds, with 41 percent undecided. That pretty much tracks with a Public Policy Polling survey conducted at the end of March. The margin of error is 4 points.

Research 2000 matched all three Democrats against former Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell and had Moran in a statistical tie with McDonnell leading 37 percent to 36 percent with 27 percent undecided; McConnell leading McAuliffe 40 percent to 33 percent with 27 percent undecided; and McConnell leading Deeds 38 percent to 31 percent with 31 percent undecided.

Illinois Republican Henry W. Meers Jr., has filed paperwork to organize a campaign against first-term Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th District south and west of Chicago.

Meers, a self-described conservative, is a real estate investor and a frequent donor to the Republican Party.

According to CQ MoneyLine, Meers has donated in recent years to the Republican National Committee and to former Rep. Jerry Weller, among other GOP organizations and candidates. He also gave to the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate campaign of then-Rep. Pat Toomey, a conservative who narrowly lost to Sen. Arlen Specter in a Republican primary, and to the 2008 New Mexico Senate campaign of then-Rep. Steve Pearce, who defeated the more moderate Rep. Heather A. Wilson in a primary but then lost decisively to Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in the general election.

GOP's Patterson Out of Michigan Governor Race

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L. Brooks Patterson

Michigan Republican L. Brooks Patterson -- a well-known suburban Detroit officeholder considered a top-tier 2010 contender for governor -- has announced that he is forgoing that race.

Patterson's decision came less than a month after he topped an Inside Michigan Politics poll on the potentially large field of Republican candidates to succeed two-term Democrat Jennifer M. Granholm, who cannot run again in 2010 under the state's term-limit law.

The survey, conducted March 4 through 10, showed Patterson with support of 22 percent of respondents. His departure could be a particular boon to state Attorney General Mike Cox, a likely Republican contender who draws his base from the same Detroit suburbs.

In a press release issued Thursday while he vacationed in Florida, Patterson said he intended to "to finish out my career in public service as Oakland County Executive."

"During these challenging times I cannot justify leaving my position ... unattended for the next year and a half while I engage in a statewide campaign for governor," Patterson wrote. "A prolonged absence from my post was the tipping point in my decision."

Arkansas Sen. Lincoln Logs $1.7 Million in 1st Quarter Funds

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Blanche Lincoln (Getty)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln,an Arkansas Democrat, raised $1.7 million during the year's first quarter for her 2010 re-election bid.

Her campaign organization deemed the figure impressive enough to release it on Thursday -- 10 days before the federal deadline for candidates to file reports on their Jan. 1-March 31 campaign finance activity.

Lincoln, who is gearing up to run for a third Senate term, closed out March with $2.3 million in total cash on hand. Both the quarterly receipts and cash reserve totals were impressive, given that Lincoln spent a total of $5.8 million on her entire 2004 re-election campaign -- which gave her a relatively easy win, with 56 percent of the vote, over Republican state Sen. Jim Holt.

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Jack Conway

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, who was very nearly elected to the U.S. House six years ago, announced Thursday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat of Republican incumbent Jim Bunning.

In a seven-minute video message posted on his campaign Web site, Conway criticized the fiscal policies of the Bush administration said that "we Democrats have a responsibility to not only restart the economy, but to show America a path back to fiscal sanity and the competitive marketplace that has long been our hallmark."

Conway's candidacy sets up a contested Democratic primary election next year with Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who nearly defeated Bunning in 2004. Mongiardo announced his candidacy in January and said this week he has raised $420,000 for his Senate campaign.

Republican Rep. J. Gresham Barrett raised more than $300,000 to run for governor of South Carolina since announcing in early March that he is in the 2010 race for the post.

Barrett, who is forgoing a bid for fifth House term to run for governor, announced in a release Thursday morning that he pulled in $371,000 in receipts for his campaign in the first quarter of the year, and ended March with more than $1 million in cash on hand.

Said Jim Dyke, the campaign's senior adviser, "The fact that Gresham was able to go out in what everyone would agree is a challenging fundraising environment and raise, in three weeks, what most candidates would hope to raise in three months is a sign that he is right on the issues."

Barrett's haul topped that of state Attorney General Henry McMaster, a likely opponent in the Republican primary for governor, who told The State newspaper in Columbia Wednesday that he raised $287,000 in the first quarter of 2009. McMaster also said he has more than $1 million in campaign cash reserves -- ostensibly for a 2010 Attorney General race, but which could also be transferred to a campaign for governor if he opts to get in that race.

Obama Scores High Marks on Both Economy and Foreign Policy

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Voters approve of President Obama's handling of the economy by 54 percent to 37 percent, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted April 1-3. Democrats endorse that view by an overwhelming 83 percent to 7 percent, independents agree by 54 percent to 36 percent, and Republicans disapprove by 67 percent to 24 percent.

Obama gets positive marks by majorities in every region except the West where voters split 49 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

Corzine's Ratings Continue to Sag in New Jersey

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Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's approval ratings are stagnating among registered New Jersey voters. A Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll conducted March 30-April 5 showed that 40 percent of registered voters approved of Corzine's job as governor, while 49 percent disapprove. That matches Corzine's approval rating from the university poll released in March, though his disapproval rating is up slighting, from 46 percent.

A majority of voters - 71 percent -- also rated Corzine's job performance as fair or poor. Sixty-eight percent said the same thing in the March poll.

Voters displeasure with Corzine appears to stem in part from his handling of the state budget. Forty-four percent of voters think Corzine's proposed budget is bad for New Jersey, 24 percent think it is good, and 32 percent were unsure.

Pennsylvania Democrat Doug Pike, a freelance journalist and a former newspaper editorial writer, said Wednesday that he's running in 2010 to represent the 6th District in southeastern Pennsylvania.

Pike, who worked for 14 years at The Philadelphia Inquirer and previously was an aide to Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Paul Tsongas (1979-85), said that he was running to "bring a renewed focus on the needs of everyday citizens."

Pike also criticized the voting record of the 6th's current congressman, four-term Republican Jim Gerlach, who may forego re-election to the House in 2010 and instead pursue a campaign for governor that is presently in the "exploratory" phase.

Eye on the Senate: Four Dems Would Beat Bunning in 2010

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Jim Bunning (Getty)

It's been a tough year so far for two-term Republican Sen. Jim Bunning and a new survey by Public Policy Polling conducted April 2-3 has some more bad news with Kentucky voters disapproving of his job performance by 54 percent to 28 percent with 18 percent undecided. In trial heats against four Democrats, Bunning trails them all.

It's also cause for concern for his fellow Republicans who have made no secret of their concern that he is in danger of losing his seat), not only because of poll numbers, but his anemic fundraising numbers. To make matters worse, he has engaged in a public spat with his fellow Kentuckian, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who is also trying to raise money to wipe out a $2 million campaign debt he incurred in fighting off a challenge last year by Democrat Bruce Lunsford.

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Terry McAuliffe (Getty)

Terry McAuliffe, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, raised $4.2 million in this year's first quarter as he seeks the Virginia governorship, his campaign said today.

McAuliffe's campaign released general figures one week ahead of an April 15 deadline, applicable to all candidates for governor, to release detailed information about their campaign donations and spending. McAuliffe's campaign said that he has raised about $5.2 million for the duration of his campaign from 3,440 donors, which comes out to an average contribution of about $1,500. McAuliffe had about $2.5 million left to spend as April began.

McAuliffe, who has raised campaign cash for the DNC and for Bill and Hillary Clinton, among other Democratic organizations and individuals, is expected to collect more campaign contributions than any other candidate in the Virginia governor's race. McAuliffe is running in a June 9 primary election along with former state Rep. Brian Moran and state Sen. Creigh Deeds; the Democratic winner will face Bob McDonnell, a former state Attorney General who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the Nov. 3 general election.

Iowa Marriage Ruling Could Factor Into Governor's Race

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Steve King (Getty)

Republican Rep. Steve King has indicated that an Iowa Supreme Court decision effectively making same-sex marriages legal could bring him closer to making a bid for governor 2010.

"It's not a predominant component," King told the Des Moines Register about how the ruling factors into his decision. "But when these kinds of things happen, does it make me more or less likely? The answer is more likely."

The Iowa Supreme Court ruled April 3 that a state statute limiting marriage between a man and a woman violated the state constitution and that the law should be interpreted to allow same-sex marriages.

Democratic Gov. Chet Culver said in a statement April 3 that he would review the decision with his legal counsel and the state attorney general. Culver is widely expected to run for re-election.

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Harry Reid (Getty)

With his Nevada Senate seat in the Republicans' firing line in 2010, Majority Leader Harry Reid is stepping up his fundraising efforts. Reid's latest move -- opening the Reid Victory Fund, is a joint fundraising committee with the Nevada Democratic party. The committee will enable Reid to join forces with local party organizers to hold fundraising events and divide the proceeds.

Reid is already a frequent target of critical press releases and commentary coming out of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The committee even aired a television ad attacking Reid in late January.

Reid, whose approval ratings have hovered around 50 percent, does not have an opponent yet, but he's not taking any chances. He ended 2008 with $3.3 million in cash on hand and will disclose his fundraising for the first three months of 2009 next week. He has more fundraisers on the horizon, including a high-profile event with President Obama in Las Vegas May 26.

Partisan Gap on Obama Exceeds Average of Recent Presidents

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The wide partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans as far as their job approval ratings of President Obama was put at 61 percent last week in a survey by the Pew Research Center and now a Gallup poll conducted March 30 April 5 sets it at 63 percent.

The partisan gap stood at 53 percent at the beginning of March and has been in the low-to-mid 60s ever since. In February, 41 percent of Republicans gave Obama a positive approval rating, which then was down to 35 percent at the start of March and has now fallen to 27 percent.

Gallup says the size of this gap exceeds the norm for many recent presidents. The average Republican-Democratic gap for seven presidents dating back to Harry Truman was 35 percent. The most polarizing presidents were Ronald Reagan (53 percent), Bill Clinton (55 percent) and George W. Bush, whose median gap was 64 percent, but hit a high of 83 percent in Fall, 2004.

N.J. Republican Weighs Campaign Against Rep. Holt

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Mike Halfacre (Campaign site photo)

New Jersey Republican Mike Halfacre has filed paperwork to prepare for a possible 2010 campaign against Democratic Rep. Rush D. Holt in the state's 12th District.

Halfacre is a lawyer and the mayor of Fair Haven, a small borough in Monmouth County that is near the eastern end of a Democratic-leaning district that meanders across the midsection of the state.

Tom Fitzsimmons, a spokesman for Halfacre, said in an e-mail message to CQ Politics that Halfacre is "considering running" for Congress next year and that "right now he is talking to people and gauging interest in his candidacy."

Democrats seem to be learning a lesson from the long-running legal battles over the 2008 Minnesota Senate race -- the New York state party and Democratic candidate Scott Murphy responded to the whiff of legal conflict in New York's 20th District special election by forming the New York Victory Protection Fund.

The fundraising committee will allow the Murphy campaign and the state party to jointly raise money for expenses incurred in the current ballot canvassing and counting process, as well as any legal fights that arise. Donors to the committee are not subject to aggregate limits, meaning a donor who already gave the maximum allowed to the Murphy campaign under federal limits can donate again to help with legal fees, up to the federal limit.

The Federal Election Commission ruled in March that the same is true for recount funds established by national party committees, in response to a request by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee regarding fundraising for the Minnesota recount. The two candidates in Minnesota -- Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman -- have spent millions on legal fees in the unresolved race.

Confidence in Obama Rises While Republicans Slip

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President Obama's approval rating has gone up a notch since last month as has the number of Americans who believe the country is getting on the right track, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted April 1-5.

Sixty-six percent approve of Obama's performance while 24 percent disapprove compared to 64 percent to 20 percent in March. Fifty-three percent still think the country is on the wrong track compared to 39 percent who say it is headed in the right direction, but that's an improvement over the 57 percent to 35 percent ratio a month earlier. That is consistent with other polls which shows the number of Americans believing the country is on the right track increasing such as a Washington Post/ABC News survey in late March.

North Korea's test launch of a rocket on Sunday put potential foreign threats back on the front page, and it is one of four international matters that now rank as high or higher than Iraq and Afghanistan in the concerns of Americans, according to a Gallup poll conducted April 1-2.

International terrorism ranks at the top of the list with 59 percent saying they are "very concerned" about it. That is followed by worries about Iran's nuclear capabilities (54 percent), North Korea's nuclear capabilities (52 percent) and 51 percent cited drug violence in Mexico, the same number who chose the conflict in Afghanistan. Iraq came next at 48 percent.

Fewer Americans were "very concerned" about the military power of China (39 percent), the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (35 percent) and Russia's military power (25 percent).

Former Sen. Chafee Exploring Run for Rhode Island Governor

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Lincoln Chafee (Getty)

Strongly Democratic Rhode Island also has a lot of unaffiliated voters, so a left-leaning independent candidate might have a shot at the governorship. At least that's the theory that Lincoln Chafee is getting ready to test.

As first reported today by the Providence Journal, Chafee, a former Republican senator who was unseated in 2006 by Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse has formed an "exploratory campaign'' for the race to succeed outgong Republican Gov. Donald L. Carcieri.

According to a statement issued this morning, "Chafee will spend the next several months meeting with advisers and supporters putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010.''

Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, who was elected last November to California's 52nd District in and around San Diego, is sponsoring a new leadership PAC that will enable him to assist his party's candidates in the 2010 election.

Hunter's political committee is called No Retreat PAC, a title that befits someone who is a Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Hunter serves on the Armed Services Committee, the panel that his namesake father and House predecessor chaired during his congressional tenure (1981-2009).

Members of Congress generally establish leadership PACs to provide financial support to party members who are running in competitive races. Hunter seems politically secure in a district that he won by 17 percentage points and that John McCain carried by 8 percentage points in the 2008 election.

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Kirsten Gillibrand

The 2010 outlook still looks murky for New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand who was named by Gov. David Paterson to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. She is still so unknown, as are her potential Democratic and Republican challengers, that it is hard to read much into the potential match-ups and favorability numbers in the latest Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 1-5.

Sixty-four percent of voters said they don't know enough about Gillibrand to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her, and that's true for 53 percent upstate where her former congressional seat was located. Sixty-eight percent have not heard enough about Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, a potential Democratic challenger, to have an opinion of her. And 67 percent say the same about Republican Rep. Peter King.

McCarthy leads Gillibrand 33 percent to 29 percent among Democratic voters if the two faced each other in a primary, with 33 percent undecided. (The margin of error is 3.8 points). In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads King 40 percent to 28 percent with 28 percent undecided.

Solis Aide to Run for Her Seat

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Benita Duran

Benita Duran, a longtime L.A.-based aide to new Labor Secretary Hilda L. Solis, is jumping into the race to succeed her former boss in the House, clouding the picture in an already crowded primary field.

The May 19 primary is all but certain to determine the next representative for the overwhelmingly Democratic 32nd District.

Though her candidacy is not yet on record with the Federal Election Comission, Duran has established a campaign Website.

That makes her the fourth candidate in the race, joining Judy Chu, the chairman of the state Board of Equalization, state Sen. Gil Cedillo and Emanuel Pleitez, who was a member of President Obama's transition team.

Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand raised $2.3 million in the first quarter of 2009, the beginnings of what she hopes to be an imposing war chest for the defense of her New York Senate seat in 2010.

"I wanted to personally thank you for your support and let you be the first to know that thanks to an overwhelming show of support from voters all over New York, our campaign shattered our goals," Gillibrand wrote in an e-mail to supporters sent Monday morning.

Gillibrand was appointed to the seat by Gov. David A. Paterson in late January to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton after Clinton was confirmed as secretary of State.

Paterson's Ratings as New York Governor Hit New Low

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David Paterson

It's been a long downhill slide in the polls for New York Gov. David Paterson and while it's impossible to say if he has hit bottom, a new Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 1-5 says he now has the lowest approval rating ever for anyone in that job.

Voters disapprove of his performance by 60 percent to 28 percent and that includes 51 percent of Democrats. By an even greater margin - 63 percent to 22 percent - they say that he does not deserve to be elected to a four-year term in 2010, a view shared by 52 percent of Democrats. By 53 percent to 39 percent, voters think his standing in the polls is so low that he should announce now that he won't run.

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who Paterson passed over in naming a Kirsten Gillibrand to Hillary Clinton's vacated Senate seat, would beat Paterson in a primary by 61 percent to 18 percent, the poll said. In a general election, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would win 53 percent to 32 percent, with Giuliani picking off 3 of 10 Democratic voters. But Cuomo would beat Giuliani 53 percent to 36 percent.

In a poll conducted before Sunday's actual test launch of a three-stage rocket, 73 percent of voters said they were very or somewhat concerned that North Korea might acquire the capability of using nuclear weapons against the U.S., according to a Rasmussen Reports poll.

The survey conducted April 3-4 said 57 percent said the U.S. should take military action to prevent North Korea's ability to develop a long-range missile that could be used to hit the U.S. with nuclear weapons. But voters were unconvinced that offering incentives to North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program was worth the effort. Fifty-one percent said the U.S. should not offer to help rebuild North Korea's economy in exchange for such an agreement while 27 percent said they would make that deal.

Iowans Have Doubts About Their Governor

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Chet Culver

Iowa Gov. Chet Culver seems to have some explaining to do before he stands for re-election in 2010.

His approval rating slipped to 55 percent in the Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll. As recently as January, the same poll pegged the governor's approval at 60 percent.

Presumably more worrisome for the incumbent Democrat: Of the 802 Iowa adults surveyed, just 35 percent said they would definitely vote to re-elect Culver. Another 28 percent said they would consider somebody else and 18 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else.

An overwhelming majority of Americans believe that it is important for President Obama to improve U.S. relations with Muslim nations and most believe Obama will strike a strategy for doing so that is "about right," Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted March 26-29.

Eighty-one percent believe the U.S. needs to better its relations with the Muslim world compared to 18 percent who say it is not important. Sixty-five percent believe Obama will approach this challenge correctly, while 22 percent say he will go too far and 9 percent say "not far enough." In his inaugural address, Obama pledged to find a "new way forward" with Muslim countries.

Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Islam by 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. Fifty-eight percent regard Islam as a peaceful religion, while 29 percent say it encourages violence, with 13 percent undecided.

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Connie Mack (Getty)

We still don't know whether the big gun in Florida politics, Gov. Charlie Crist, is going to run for the Senate next year, but now we know more about who isn't going to run.

The Associated Press reports that Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., will not pursue a Senate bid and instead will seek a fourth term in the House.

Mack advised Republican Gov. Charlie Crist of his decision in an April 2 letter.

Sparks Ignites Democratic Primary for Alabama Governor

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After some fits and starts, Alabama Democrats now have a contested June 2010 primary for governor on their hands.

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Ron Sparks (r) with Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack

Ron Sparks, the state's commissioner of Agriculture, announced Friday that he will run to succeed Republican Bob Riley, who has hit the state's two-term limit for governor. His announcement came just two days after Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom stated he would not join the Democratic field, already occupied by Rep. Artur Davis.

Sparks thus provides the only major competition so far to Davis, who has gained some national attention as he bids to become the first African-American governor of the Deep South state. Davis, who officially entered the contest in February, had strongly indicated his interest last November -- shortly after he won his fourth term in the 7th Congressional District, and after political ally Barack Obama was elected as the nation's first black president.

Democrat Mulling Primary Challenge to Dodd

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It's not just Republicans who are fed up with Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, some state Democrats have also begun expressing their displeasure with the five-term incumbent.

One Democrat, Stamford attorney Roger Pearson, is now even mulling a challenge to his own party's senator, Hartford Courant columnist Kevin Rennie reported Friday.

According to Rennie, Pearson "has formed a committee to explore a run for his party's 2010 nomination," saying he has become "disaffected" with Dodd.

It's unlikely Dodd will lose sleep over a challenge from Pearson,who served as Greenwich, Conn. first selectman between 1977 and 1987, but there is one Democrat that could create a serious stumbling block -- popular Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.

Local Democrats have grown unseasy as Dodd's poll numbers have sunk in recent months, and there are have been rumblings among the party faithful that it may be better to nominate someone like Blumenthal, who is more likely to hold the seat. But the attorney general told the Courant Thursday that while he would like to run for the Senate, he would not challenge Dodd.

Not that anyone needed proof that it's never too early for campaigns to step off the high road, but here's some more. Today's example comes from Connecticut, where positioning for the 2010 Senate race is well underway.

On Thursday the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a web video attacking former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who announced last month that he will run to unseat five-term incumbent Democrat Christopher J. Dodd. The add zeroes in on a March 31 Simmons fundraiser that was hosted by several lobbyists.

"Rob Simmons: A special interest Congressman before, a special interest candidate now," the video concludes.

Three-term Sen. Byron L. Dorgan, a long-popular North Dakota Democrat, is a strong favorite for his upcoming 2010 race, coming off his 2004 re-election with 68 percent of the vote. But he could face a challenge from Republican Duane Sand, a former Navy officer who may still harbor hopes of serving in Congress - despite three lopsided defeats over the past decade.

Sand filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) registering a committee for a possible Senate bid. Yet he suggested in an e-mail exchange with CQ Politics that this was a very tentative move, which he attributed to FEC's requirement that even undeclared candidates must report total expenditures of as little as $5,000.

Sand said he formed the committee because it costs more than $5,000 "to conduct something as simple as a poll."

Sand, who graduated from the Naval Academy, served on three nuclear submarines and in Iraq. He has touted this background as the Republican challenger to Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad in 2000 and to Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, North Dakota's only House member, in 2004 and 2008.

The three Democrats and one Republican campaigning in this year's contest for governor of Virginia met Friday morning at a town hall-style forum, held in the populous and politically potent northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.

The forum, which focused on issues important to the business community, was sponsored by the Northern Virginia Technology Council and held at Microsoft's technology center in Reston, about 20 miles west of the nation's capital.

It was the first joint appearance for the Democrats -- Creigh Deeds, a state senator; Terry McAuliffe, a businessman, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and longtime political ally of former President Bill Clinton; and Brian Moran, a former state legislator -- and Republican Bob McDonnell, a former state Attorney General.

Obama Fatigue? Not Yet.

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A couple of polls today tackled the question: are we getting too much of Barack Obama?

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(Getty)

Pew Research, based on a survey conducted March 27-30, said there's no sign yet of "Obama Fatigue." Fifty-four percent said they have been hearing the right amount about Obama, compared to 34 percent who said they had been hearing too much. Eight percent said "too little." They must not have caught Obama on Leno.

Republicans have a different point of view. Fifty-nine percent of them say they have heard too much.

Becoming President much change perceptions because, last August, 48 percent said they were hearing too much about Obama compared to 41 percent said it was the right amount.

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Kirsten Gillibrand (Getty)

Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand continued her change in tone on illegal immigration Thursday when she announced she was cosponsoring the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act. Gillibrand joins 14 of the Senate's more liberal Democrats as well as two Republicans and Independent Joseph I. Lieberman as co-sponsors of the bill (S 729).

The DREAM Act, which was introduced March 26, would amend the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 to allow states to provide higher education funding for children who came to the United States as illegal immigrants.

Eye on the Senate: Thune Would Beat Daschle in a Rematch

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John Thune (Getty)

What would a rematch look like between South Dakota's GOP Sen. John Thune and the man he beat in 2004, former Sen. Tom Daschle? Thune edged the former Senate Democratic leader by 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent last time, and a Research 2000 poll conducted March 30 - April says that Thune would win 53 percent to percent with 7 percent undecided if a 2010 vote were held today.

Research 2000 also matched Thune against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and showed Thune beating her 51 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided.

Thune has better favorable-to-unfavorable rations than either Democrat at 57 percent to 32 percent. Daschle's is 50 percent to 43 percent, and Herseth Sandlin's is 53 percent to 31 percent.

Voters Have Bleak View of Economy and Still Blame Bush

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Most voters still have a pretty bleak view of the state of the economy and the direction of the country but 47 percent say they would put the blame on former President Bush rather than Barack Obama if the economy doesn't improve or worsens in the next six months, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted March 31 - April 1. A quarter of voters would blame Obama, 9 percent would blame both a nd 15 percent say neither.

Twenty-nine percent finger corporate leaders as the biggest culprits in precipitating the financial crisis, 23 percent point to the Bush administration, 19 percent blame congressional leaders and 5 percent say Obama.

Georgia Attorney General Joins Race for Governor

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Thurbert Baker

Democratic state Attorney General Thurbert Baker filed paperwork Wednesday to establish a 2010 gubernatorial campaign, Baker consultant Jeff DiSantis confirmed.

DiSantis, former Democratic state party executive director, described Baker as a moderate. "He has good relationships all across the political spectrum," DiSantis said, adding that the National Rifle Association endorsed Baker's three elections since his 1997 appointment to the position.

Baker joins David Poythress, former state Adjutant General (commander of the Georgia Army and Air National Guard) in the Democratic race for the seat currently held by term-limited Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue.

Obama Approval Numbers Show Wide Partisan Gap

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Anyone still feeling warm and fuzzy about the bipartisan spirit that President Obama fostered during his first weeks in office will find some sobering news deep in the monthly presidential job-approval ratings compiled by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

It turns out Obama has the most politically polarized early job-approval score in the modern era of polling.

Recent number crunching revealed a staggering 61-point partisan gap in Democratic and Republican opinions about Obama's job performance in the survey of 1,308 adults Pew conducted March 9-12.

Another Republican to Join Kansas 1st District Race

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Republican Tracey Mann, a real estate agent, will announce his candidacy on April 4 for Kansas' open 1st District.

Mann will join an already crowded GOP field to succeed Republican Rep. Jerry Moran, who is running for governor.

Republicans Tim Huelskamp, a state senator, businessman Tim Barker, former senate aide Rob Wasinger, and educator Sue Boldra are each campaigning for the Republican nomination.

Voters in the largely rural district supported John McCain for president with 69 percent of the vote, according to a CQ Politics analysis.

Folsom Opts Out of Alabama Governor's Race

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Jim Folsom

Democratic Lieutenant Gov. Jim Folsom Jr. announced Wednesday he will not seek the post of Alabama governor in 2010, removing one potential roadblock for Democratic Rep. Artur Davis.

Term-limits prevent Republican Gov. Bob Riley from seeking re-election in 2010 and Davis has been actively campaigning for the open seat. Folsom was widely viewed as a major primary threat for Davis, but Folsom has instead decided to seek re-election to his current position.

"He will be a valued part of the Democratic ticket as Lieutenant Governor and if both of us are successful in 2010, he will be invited to be a genuine partner in my efforts to revive Alabama's economy," Davis said in a statement Wednesday.

Michigan Lt. Gov. John Cherry hasn't officially declared his candidacy for governor in 2010, but he sure looks like he's headed in that direction.

Cherry, who is second-in-command under term-limited current Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm, launched a new Web site Thursday, titled "A Whole Lot of People Supporting John Cherry." Beneath his name it reads, "Democrat for Governor."

Cherry is considered to be the leading contender for the post on the Democratic side, though it's unlikely he'll have the race to himself. He, Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel and state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith have all formed exploratory committees that allow them to fundraise for a potential run.

Eye on the Senate: Dodd Continues to Slide in Connecticut

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Sen. Christopher J. Dodd's stepped-up outreach at home does not seem to have helped him thus far with Connecticut voters. The Democrat's approval ratings sunk even further in a new Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 26-31.

Voters disapprove of Democrat's job performance by a margin of 58 to 33 percent. That is up from 49 percent disapproval in a poll released March 10. At that time, 44 percent approved of Dodd's job performance. A majority of Connecticut voters - 54 percent - also said they did not think the senator is honest and trustworthy.

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Dodd trailing all three potential Republican challengers in hypothetical match-ups, with vote percentages only in the 30s and Democratic support in the low 60s.

The campaign arm of House Democrats is planning to air radio advertisements critical of six Republicans who opposed President Obama's economic recovery law.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which is defending the party's House majority in the 2010 midterm elections, said Thursday that it will run the ads next week in the districts of Michael N. Castle of Delaware; Ken Calvert of California; C.W. Bill Young of Florida; Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan; Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania; and Michael McCaul of Texas.

The ad says that the Republican members, in opposing the stimulus law, "voted against tax breaks" to assist struggling families. No House Republican voted for the stimulus package, which GOP lawmakers generally said spent too much money. Castle said the measure had "too much unrelated, unfocused spending."

Gillibrand's Vote in NY 20 Among Uncounted Absentees

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Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is among the voters whose late-counted ballots will determine the outcome of the race to succed her in New York's 20th District.

Gillibrand, who was appointed to the Senate after Hillary Rodham Clinton became secretary of State, said Wednesday that she voted by absentee ballot. She, of course, cast her ballot for fellow Democrat Scott Murphy, who held a slim lead over veteran Republican state lawmaker Jim Tedisco when counting stopped Tuesday night

All paper ballots, including those cast by absentees, have been impounded under court order, and it is not clear when a winner will be declared.

Will Gillibrand's vote make the difference for Murphy?

"I hope so," she said.

President Obama and congressional Democrats continue to ride significantly higher than Republicans in public opinion with a majority of voters saying they trust Obama more the GOP lawmakers on the economy, and Hill Republicans getting much lower job approval marks than their Democratic counterparts, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 24-30.

Voters pick Obama over congressional Republicans on handling the economy by 55 percent to 27 percent with 18 percent undecided. Judged by himself, 55 percent approve of Obama's handling of the economy compared to 37 percent who don't.

Texas Democratic businessman Jack McDonald is touting a fast early start in fundraising as he readies his 2010 campaign against Republican Rep. Michael McCaul in the 10th District in and around Austin.

McDonald's campaign announced Wednesday that it had raised nearly $309,000 since it organized an "exploratory" campaign with the Federal Election Commission about five weeks ago.

McDonald, who heads an information technology firm and is a vice chairman of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, attributed his early fundraising success to "the set of issues that we're talking about."

"What we're hearing out there from people is that they want folks in Washington that have real world experience," McDonald said. "Our economy is in crisis right now and we face long-term economic challenges."

It appears that a special general election in California's 32nd Congressional District will be unavoidable.

According to the most recent update to the Los Angeles County registrar's website on Tuesday evening, a total of eight candidates filed to run in the special primary to succeed Democrat Hilda L. Solis. The Senate confirmed Solis Feb. 24 to serve as Secretary of Labor.

Candidates who have submitted paperwork include: Democrat Judy Chu, vice chair of the state board of Equalization; Democratic state Sen. Gil Cedillo; Democrat Emanuel Pleitez, a former member of Obama's transition team; Libertarian Christopher M. Agrella, who ran for the 38th District in November; Democrat Stefan "Contreras" Lysenko, an actor; Democratic businessman Rafael F. Nadal; Republican David Truax, former mayor of Covina; and Peace and Freedom candidate Howard Johnson.

Texas Rep. Rodriguez Forms Leadership PAC

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CQ Photo
Ciro Rodriguez (Getty)

Texas Democratic Rep. Ciro D. Rodriguez, who is in the second term of his second tenure in the U.S. House, has formed a leadership PAC that he can use to assist colleagues in need of campaign cash.

Rodriguez's political committee is called Tejano PAC, which takes its name from the Spanish word for "Texan."

Rodriguez was first elected to the House in a 1997 special election held to replace the late Democratic Rep. Frank Tejeda. Rodriguez served through 2004, when he was defeated in a Democratic primary by Henry Cuellar after a Republican-drawn redistricting plan attached part of Cuellar's Laredo hometown to Rodriguez's district.