Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th District has received substantial national attention, though it's probably a mistake to read too much into the result of the balloting between Republican James Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy.
The most obvious reason is that the Obama administration is barely two months old and that 20 months remain until the 2010 midterm elections, which will be a much broader referendum on the president's policies and the Democratic-run Congress.
Moreover, a history of House special elections dating to 1968, which I compiled and posted on Greg's List, should also give pause to ascribing too much importance to the outcome of a low-turnout election in a district that voted narrowly for Barack Obama in the 2008 election.
As my compilation shows, it's fairly rare to have a House special election this early in an election cycle. All of the dozen special House elections in the 2007-08 cycle occurred after the first half of 2007 -- including the three in the spring of 2008 in which Democrats wrested away Republican-held districts (Illinois' 14th, Louisiana's 6th and Mississippi's 1st).
In 2005, there was a special election in March to replace the late California Democratic Rep. Robert T. Matsui. But his Sacramento-based district was safely Democratic, and there was no doubt he would be succeeded by his widow, Doris Matsui, who continues to serve today.
Should Tedisco defeat Murphy in tonight's balloting -- polls show the race close, with Murphy leading slightly -- it would mark the first time since June 2001, when Virginia Republican J. Randy Forbes was first elected, that a Republican won a Democratic-held district in a special election.
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