Is the Stimulus Working?

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Is President Barack Obama's stimulus doing anything to help the economy? GOPers have been bitching it's a bust. And I confess: it's hard to suss out a good answer. You could also ask, has it done any harm?

A press release I received this morning contains some information that may help us evaluate the stimulus:

A small fraction of the total federal stimulus bill has been awarded in contract awards thus far, and while the pace of contract awards has increased in the last four weeks, the full effect on job creation has yet to be felt, according to Mike Pickett, CEO of Seattle technology company Onvia, whose data powers Recovery.org.

Testifying before the House Government Reform Committee today, Pickett described the most current state of stimulus spending.

Recovery.org is reporting that 1,330 contracts - totaling $21 billion in stimulus spending - have been awarded to local contractors. Applying the White House's Council of Economic Advisors' formula to the $21 billion in awards, Recovery.org estimates that 230,000 jobs have been created or retained so far.

"Employers are not going to retain or hire new employees until they have the contracts in-hand." said Pickett. "The job creation will come once the contracts are awarded."

Overall, Recovery.org is currently tracking $90.7 billion in stimulus spending over 18,451 projects. This is the total stimulus funding figure for projects that are in the "pipeline," having been publicly reported by Federal, state, local or regional government agencies...

"The good news regarding the nation's employment picture is that the pace of stimulus spending has accelerated dramatically over the last month," Pickett continued. "There is fifty percent more stimulus spending in the pipeline now than there was one month ago."

Of the $90.7 billion in stimulus funding currently being tracked, $18 billion is presently at the RFP stage, up from $11 billion at the RFP stage at the start of June.

"Since job creation comes from businesses winning government contracts and thereby hiring or retaining employees to perform on the contract, we are now in a position to determine how many jobs have been created by the Stimulus Bill," Pickett continued.
If  indeed only $21 billion of the $787 billion stimulus bill has actually hit the pipeline, then no one should expect much of a bang yet. And by Pickett's analysis, the pace is picking up dramatically.

Obama has called for patience in assessing his economic policies--including the stimulus plan--and has said that the best way to judge the stimulus spending will be to look at the jobs picture next year. He might be right.

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    Comments

  1. But, but, we don't have to wait to judge the stimulus, we already know Obummer is a failure. How can a secret muslim commie be expected to fix anything? Forget Barack, he should change his name to Baroke cuz that's how he's gonna leave this country!

    Do I get the freddie seal of approval yet?

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 2:57 PM

  2. Is President Barack Obama's stimulus doing anything to help the economy? GOPers have been bitching it's a bust.

    ~~~
    Come on Corn, don't be such a partisan hack!


    VP Joesph Biden said it was bust, so it must be.

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 3:51 PM

  3. "VP Joesph Biden said it was bust...."
    Posted by: freddie July 8, 2009 3:51 PM

    I don't know which is funnier -- that one -- or the one about the filibuster in the House of Representatives.

    Biden didn't say that the stimulus had failed; he said that the last 8 years of Conservative government had so utterly burned the national economy to the ground and (with its globalization push) had so thoroughly crippled the world economy that no one in the G8 can help the U.S. get back on its feet.

    Take a look at the stock markets going back to June 11. When all of the G8's stock markets made a big bounce AFTER the departure of the incompetent Conservatives in the White House, they have suddenly taken a downward turn again. They are struggling to correct the failures of 8 years of Conservative misuse of power and adding Trillions of dollars in debt.

    The same dingbats and Little Hoovers that crap their pants because of deficits run up to get us out of this Conservative-created depression didn't utter a peep about it when they themselves ran up massive deficits in times when the economy was NOT in a recession. It's almost as if they're proud of their little political snot-bubbles.

    Posted by: Clint Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 4:29 PM

  4. Mr. Corn sez: "GOPers have been bitching it's a bust. And I confess: it's hard to suss out a good answer."

    "If indeed only $21 billion of the $787 billion stimulus bill has actually hit the pipeline, then no one should expect much of a bang yet."

    You're on the right track. Read Bruce Bartlett, a former Reagan policy adviser and treasury official during the reign of Bush the Elder.

    He points out that there are different parts of the Stimulus that have different effects on GDP. He sez, "Unfortunately, the low-impact spending has been the fastest to come online while the high-impact spending is dribbling out very slowly."

    About a year from now all of the LEAST effective components (food stamps, extended unemployment, and TAX CUTS) will be fully disbursed. Compared to the more effective government purchases and contracts will only have one-fourth of their $$$ fully disbursed TWO YEARS from now.

    Quick facts:
    =+= Just 11 per cent of the discretionary spending on highways, mass transit, energy efficiency and other programmes involving direct government purchases will have been spent by the end of this fiscal year (about 90 days from now).

    =+= According to www.recovery.gov, which tracks this spending, at June 26 only $56.3bn has been paid out from the $157.8bn in funds allocated to various government agencies.

    =+= The agency primarily responsible for public works, the Department of Transportation, has spent virtually nothing. The website says it has made $20.5 BILLION available, but just a tiny $441.5 MILLION has actually been spent. (that's roughly 2% of the allotted total)

    Bartlett's conclusion: "Consequently, it is hardly surprising that five months after the stimulus bill passed it has not yet affected the unemployment rate."

    According to estimates from the CBO: "only 27 per cent of highway spending is spent in the first year after being made available, rising to 68 per cent in the second and 84 per cent in the third. Thus a considerable amount of the public works funding in the February stimulus bill will in fact be spent years from now."

    Bartlett sums it up neatly: "What all this means is that it is foolish to think that any sort of stimulus that is enacted now will have an impact on the economy any time soon. We just have to wait for the medicine we have already taken to work."

    Bartlett's full column: http://tinyurl.com/q9mrse

    Just what kind of Conservative is Bruce Bartlett? He got fired from a Conservative Think Tank for criticizing G. W. Bush. Telling the truth can be dangerous in the Conservative Clown Show. They have no sense of humor.

    Posted by: Clint Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 5:45 PM

  5. "And I confess: it's hard to suss out a good answer."

    Really?

    Remember where the economy was headed?

    Such short memories.

    I am (and always have been) against bailouts for banks and Wall Street.

    The stimulus is a horse of a different color. I guess the idea that Obama hasn't been able to repair the worlds economy in less than six months means he is a total failure.

    Let's impeach the SOB - maybe we can bring back the GOP to finish off what they weren't able to break while in power.

    As a journalist, I thought it was part of the job to suss out good answers? Is sussing just more hard work?

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 5:58 PM

  6. If you want to see how savagely Nixon and Bush screwed our economy (funny how two of the most conservative Presidents are the only two presidents in history to preside over 2 recessions during their terms), check out this graphic the New York Times. It was put together by economists from the OECD and charts industrial production to measure growth and contraction in the economy. It shows that the damage done by the conservatives seems to have been stemmed and we are entering into a recovery phase. It also shows that the climb out of the massive ditch that the conservatives drove the economy into will be a long hard climb. Check it out (click on the "next" button to get a historical perspective and see projected growth).

    http://tinyurl.com/lho4gc

    Posted by: Clint Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 5:58 PM

  7. For a more wonky explanation of the state of the economy, check out Dkos' bonddad. If you are scared of numbers or not so good with graphs, you might want to have a drink or two before diving in. It is happy hour yet?

    http://tinyurl.com/luroj8

    Posted by: Clint Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:02 PM

  8. "check out Dkos' bonddad."

    No doubt - I was just there - good stuff and well supported by meaningful data.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/29/747542/-An-Economic-Chicken-And-Egg-Story

    (and)

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/7/8/751313/-The-Economic-Free-Fall-is-Over

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:07 PM

  9. "It was put together by economists from the OECD and charts industrial production to measure growth and contraction in the economy. "

    WOW!

    Good stuff!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:10 PM

  10. That giant sucking sound you hear is the power vacuum in the GOP. At this moment when Democrats are emboldened to make a power grab over the state of the economy, there is no one on the right who has an answer or the stature to stand up for conservatives.

    "Dems Gone Wild" is the next scary installment in a long line of scare economic scenarios. Many Liberals are already harping for a second stimulus arguing that the first one wasn't big enough and will take years to take effect. They want MORE and who will stop them?

    Obama Adviser Says U.S. Should Mull Second Stimulus
    http://tinyurl.com/nekez8

    "The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,” said Laura Tyson, an outside adviser to President Barack Obama."

    "The current plan “will have a positive effect, but the real economy is a sicker patient,” Tyson said in a speech in Singapore today. The package will have a more pronounced impact in the third and fourth quarters, she added, stressing that she was speaking for herself and not the administration. "
    ==+==

    And Krugman counters Bruce Bartlett (who argues against a second stimulus in the article linked above)
    http://tinyurl.com/oae7jk

    "The problem, in other words, is not that the stimulus is working more slowly than expected; it was never expected to do very much this soon. The problem, instead, is that the hole the stimulus needs to fill is much bigger than predicted. That — coupled with the fact that yes, stimulus takes time to work — is the reason for a second round, ASAP."
    ==+==

    Get that? They want another stimulus. Trillions more in debt. And where is the GOP when the Dems are on the prowl? Ensign is still wriggling out the extra payments that he was making to his mistress. Sanford is still having trouble zipping up. Palin is STILL Kookoo for Cocopuffs. Limbaugh is still high on whatever meds he's scored. Fredward, when the conservatives cut and run, who will bark down the Dems? Obama? Austan Goolsby, one of the president's economic advisers seems to be trying to cool everyone's jets; but where have all the conservatives gone? Still looking for Obama's birth certificate. Looking for clues in Rezko's transcripts. The GOP is AWOL.

    Posted by: Clint Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:18 PM

  11. Democrats stuck on stupid in stimulus jam

    Politico:

    President Barack Obama says there’s “nothing” he “would have done differently” about his economic stimulus plan, but one of his top outside economic advisers says the plan was “a bit too small.”


    Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri says the idea of a second stimulus is a “non-starter,” but Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island says it “should be on the table.”


    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) says there’s “no showing that a second stimulus is needed,” but House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) says Congress needs to be “open to whether we need additional action.”


    Democrats are all over the map on the stimulus and the possibility of a sequel, and it’s not hard to see why: When it comes to a second stimulus, they may be damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    Wow! Shocker! The dems don't know what the fuck they're doing.

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:38 PM

  12. Obama Has To Correct Joe Biden, Again, For Saying Something True


    Poor Joe Biden has spent his entire term as vice president being privately rebuked and publicly corrected by his boss. Every time Biden gives an interview, Obama comes out a couple days later and says, “I stand behind everything Joe said, except just to clarify, he meant the opposite,” and Biden has to sit in the Naughty Circle for ten minutes.

    The latest shameful rebuke came after Joe admitted to George Stephanopoulos — and why is it that George Stephanopoulos, not exactly the hardest journalist for Democrats to get along with, always manages to make these guys say outrageous things? — that the Obama administration had “misread” the economy at the beginning of the year and not understood what a terrible shitshow it was going to be, well into the midterm election season.

    “Misread” was obviously the wrong word, because it was accurate. So today, President Obama said that “we had incomplete information.”

    Indeed, it is difficult to find any information at all about the economy, anywhere!

    Joe Biden has been sent to Bermuda to live with the Uighurs.

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:42 PM

  13. The GOP is AWOL.

    ````
    Since Obama has a 82% approval rating among Dems, I would rather be AWOL than an ASSHOLE!

    The idiot Dems hold the power and only 44 of them have the balls, so far, to stand up to the Dear Leader...

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:47 PM

  14. The stimulus is a horse of a different color. I guess the idea that Obama hasn't been able to repair the worlds economy in less than six months means he is a total failure.

    ~~~~~~~~~~

    Repair? Hell he can't stop the bleeding~~

    I guess his words don't mean as much to liberals as they do to conservatives.

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:52 PM

  15. Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

    Wednesday, July 08, 2009

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 32% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –5.

    The number who strongly disapprove inched up another point to the highest level measured to date and the overall Approval Index is at the lowest level yet for Obama (see trends).

    In the wake of last week’s disappointing report on job loss, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in two months. The Rasmussen Investor Index shows investor confidence falling to the lowest level in three months. The number of investors who say the economy is getting worse jumped from 43% before the jobs report to 51% today.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    It's slipping away, day by day!


    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 6:59 PM

  16. GALLUP: OBAMA APPROVAL DIPS TO NEW LOW...

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:02 PM

  17. Stimulus fizzle has Democrats worried


    July 8, 2009 by Ed Morrissey


    And well they should. Democrats put down an $800 billion bet and locked Republicans out of the room in placing it. They know their party and their President completely owns the results — and those aren’t looking good at all. And like any bad gambler, they want to double down on a lost hand:

    Five months after Congress approved a massive package of spending and tax cuts aimed at reviving an ailing economy, the jobless rate is still climbing and the White House is scrambling to reassure an anxious public that President Obama’s prescription for economic recovery is on the right track.

    Yesterday, Obama took time out of his first presidential trip to Moscow to defend the $787 billion stimulus package, arguing that the measure was the right medicine at the right time. “There’s nothing that we would have done differently,” he told ABC News.
    Back in Washington, senior Democrats on Capitol Hill were nervously contemplating whether additional government stimulus spending may be needed to pull the nation out of the worst recession since the 1930s. Senior administration officials acknowledged that the effects of the stimulus package have been overshadowed by an unexpectedly sharp drop-off in employment since the measure passed in February. But they reported that only about $100 billion has so far been spent and that as increasingly large sums flow out of Washington, the program is on pace to save or create 600,000 jobs over the next 100 days.

    “It is clear from the data that there needs to be more fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year than there was in the first half of the year,” White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers said. “Fortunately, the stimulus program designed by the president and passed by Congress provides exactly that.”

    But that wasn’t what the White House or the Democrats promised when they passed Porkulus. Barack Obama’s economic advisers demanded fast action, rather than reasoned debate and negotiation, to adopt their recommendations in order to avoid a spike in unemployment in the near term. They got what they wanted — a spending plan that funded just about every liberal fantasy of the last 30 years, save universal health care — and it didn’t do anything to stop rapid unemployment.

    Why did it fail? Michelle links to a GAO report that shows that the White House lost control of Porkulus spending from the very beginning. States receiving Porkulus money used it to hide budget deficits instead of creating jobs, and the GAO cannot effectively track the money in any case:

    Overall, states reported using Recovery Act funds to stabilize state budgets and to cope with fiscal stresses. The funds helped them maintain staffing for existing programs and minimize or avoid tax increases as well as reductions in services.

    States have implemented various internal control programs; however, federal Single Audit guidance and reporting does not fully address Recovery Act risk. The Single Audit reporting deadline is too late to provide audit results in time for the audited entity to take action on deficiencies noted in Recovery Act programs.

    Moreover, current guidance does not achieve the level of accountability needed to effectively respond to Recovery Act risks. Finally, state auditors need additional flexibility and funding to undertake the added Single Audit responsibilities under the Recovery Act.

    Here’s where we get into the “saved or created” dodge of the Obama administration. The Porkulus money may have “saved” jobs, but they were government jobs, not the private sector. Most government employees have union representation, primarily by the SEIU. The only jobs Porkulus may have saved were those of bureaucrats in state government, and mostly to make sure the unions stay on the side of the Democrats.
    None of that money went into promoting growth in the private sector, which is why unemployment skyrocketed. Capital stayed out of the market, in part because of fears of confiscatory tax increases and in part because of the amount of regulation threatened by the Obama administration, and what capital was left will get eaten up by the cost of Porkulus eventually. And the GAO says it will take months just to get effective reporting on how that money gets spent, regardless of where it goes.

    Now, Democrats want to do this all over again, saying that all they need to do is bet just a little more to erase their losses. I’d say we need to cut our losses, and the Democrats as well.
    ~~~~


    Dude where's my recovery?

    Posted by: freddie Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:14 PM

  18. An Obama Doctrine Emerges in Moscow

    ABC News called President Barack Obama's trip to Russia a "breakthrough" and the new agreement to cut nuclear arms "extraordinary." Henry Kissinger compared Obama to a chess master playing simultaneous games.

    But just as significant as the nuclear accords and the reset of US-Russian relations may be the worldview that Obama elaborated in his Moscow speeches. He deftly buried the deeply flawed strategic doctrine that launched an unnecessary war with Iraq and posited military force as the chief tool of US statecraft.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/an-obama-doctrine-emerges_b_227905.html

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:31 PM

  19. Jeb Bush: The Future of the Republican Party

    With no obvious candidate to lead the Republican party (and one having just stepped down), some are looking to Jeb Bush. Which is news to him.


    [snip]

    Why is he so popular now?
    [A flash of agitation.] First of all, who cares? His popularity is no greater — in fact it's less — than what my brother's was during the beginning of his tenure, in a time of unbelievable friction, if you think about it, because of the 2000 election. His approval ratings were higher than Barack Obama's during his first one hundred days. [Actually, according to Gallup, during the first hundred days of his presidency, Bush had approval ratings that were generally in the high 50s to low 60s, while Obama's were in the low to mid-60s.]


    Read more: http://www.esquire.com/features/jeb-bush-interview-0809#ixzz0KiKUMCKY&C

    ******

    Run Jeb RUN!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:35 PM

  20. You just can't make this stuff up!

    lol

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:36 PM

  21. Palin the Polarizer

    The Obama campaign's response to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his 2008 running mate was to argue that the Arizona senator had ruined his narrative of being the seasoned, experienced candidate by coupling himself with an unseasoned novice. An online article in Religion Dispatches written this week by Robert Jones and Daniel Cox confirms the Obama camp's assertion that McCain ruined his story, but suggests that it had less to do with the Arizona senator's experiential claims than his ability to present himself as a non-polarizing, post-partisan politician.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/palin-polarizer.html

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:38 PM

  22. Key Reason Palin Gave For Quitting May Be False


    One of the chief reasons Sarah Palin has given for resigning as Governor of Alaska is that her state’s taxpayers are being forced to spend money defending her government against ethics complaints that would otherwise fund teachers, cops, and road repair.

    But in response to our questions, a spokesperson for the Alaska governor’s office just gave us new information that casts serious doubt on this assertion. The revelation makes the resignation episode even stranger, and raises fresh questions about the real reasons for her abrupt departure.

    http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-party/key-reason-palin-gave-for-quitting-appears-to-be-false/

    ******

    Of course she lied - it is what we pay all politicians to do.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:42 PM

  23. Happy Hour Roundup


    * This one’s pretty funny. Senator Chuck Grassley says he wants Sarah Palin to come to Iowa to campaign, but only under certain conditions:

    “The answer is, if she can raise a lot of money for me, yes.”

    Tell us what you really think, Senator…

    * Obama’s potent political operation, Organizing for America, just reaffirmed the President’s commitment to a public health care plan, blasting out an email calling on recipients to call select members of Congress and demand “the choice of a robust public insurance option.”

    * Sam Stein has some must-read quotes from two Senators, Ron Wyden and Bernie Sanders, who say they don’t mind taking pressure from the left. Imagine that! Paging DiFi….

    http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/economy/happy-hour-roundup-42/

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:45 PM

  24. Obama not talking about second stimulus: official

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama's administration is not discussing a second stimulus plan to jolt the U.S. economy out of recession, a White House budget official told Congress on Wednesday.

    "No one in the administration is talking about a second stimulus at this point," said Robert Nabors, deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, who is tracking the effects of the economic recovery plan already in effect.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE56750920090708

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 7:48 PM

  25. Panetta Acknowledged CIA Misled On Interrogation Policy: Dem Lawmakers

    CIA Director Leon Panetta told lawmakers in a recent briefing that the intelligence agency he heads misled Congress on "significant actions" for a "number of years," a group of Democrats revealed on Wednesday.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/08/panetta-acknowledged-cia_n_228321.html

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2009 9:36 PM

  26. "Repair? Hell he can't stop the bleeding~~"

    Can someone remind us all who nearly fatally wounded this world with all those wonderful conservative fiscal governance tricks during the past 8 years?

    Fredie, put down your hand! We all know that you know it was the fault of all those damned liberals who refused to stop Bush and Cheney from screwing over the whole world.

    Posted by: kalpal Author Profile Page | July 9, 2009 7:12 AM

  27. "con" stands for "con"fused these days.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 9, 2009 9:05 AM

  28. Dallas police cut extra protection at George W. Bush's home


    The Dallas Police Department has cut back on some of the additional protection that the department provided around the Preston Hollow home of former President George W. Bush.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/070809dnmetbushprotection.1e58ce80.html

    *****

    If Bush hadn't run the ship of state aground . . .

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 9, 2009 9:13 AM

  29. "Fox and Friends" Host Argues for Racially "Pure Society"

    According to "Doktor" Kilmeade:

    "We are — we keep marrying other species and other ethnics and other ... See, the problem is the Swedes have pure genes. Because they marry other Swedes .... Fins marry other Fins, so they have a pure society."

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/7/8/751373/-Fox-and-Friends-Host-Argues-for-Racially-Pure-Society

    ******

    I think the "cons" are making the gamble on being outright racists.

    Maybe it'll work for them?

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 9, 2009 9:31 AM

  30. Your modern Republican Party


    Representative Steve King (R-Iowa) is among the least intelligent and most obnoxious members of Congress. Yesterday he cast the sole and only vote in the House refusing to recognize the efforts of slaves in the 18th and 19th century to to build, ironically, the U.S. Capitol Building. But that is hardly the only bigoted act King ever took, just the latest.

    http://firedoglake.com/2009/07/09/your-modern-republican-party/

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 9, 2009 9:38 AM

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