David Corn

DC,

History is being revealed!

*fingers crossed* just the same

Chi town? Are you betting on a little celebration there (I hope)

Enthusiastic, empowered, encouraged! Obama/Biden '08!

Hope you have a ticket for the Obama victory party.

What Will We Know by 7 PM?

Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has taken a recent set of our simulations to look at what may happen conditional on the outcomes of the first states to close their polls at 6 and 7 PM. The bottom line? If those states go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election:

http://tinyurl.com/6exw4b

Alan --- Yes. The papeer by Bazant, Le, Greening & Benson is now published. I even have a copy of the journal issue on my desk.

as_if --- NIST was wrong about the collapse time if they did indeed write 10 seconds. The total collapse time, except for the spire, was about 18 seconds with the majority of the collapse finished by 15 seconds; not shorter. (it is possible to actually go and measure these things, you know.)

Um, how is that on topic? Is it even close? Does it belong on this thread?

Does this address DC's post, his comments or his work?

Are we being respectful of his blog?

Is this just a place to post anything about anything - forget DC and what he does?

(rhetorical)

A little respect and consideration for David Corn and his work and the content and topic of his blog would not be out of order?

Maybe it is just me.

Aren't there places for an open discussion of other topics? I bet these itenternets have plenty of places to discuss your other work. Maybe even place where some of the posters give a crap?

Maybe there should be a David Benson blog - specializing on that one topic?

"it is possible to actually go other places and post these things, you know."

And there is no reason to be a condescending jerk.

Especially on DC's blog on a thread about the election.

I would assume (obviously wrongly so) that a highly educated person would also retain a little respect?

13 minutes and still no results?

Slackers.

Just kidding. We expect instant results, but yeah, it takes work to count these things.

Remember, you can view our Election Guide here, and download PDF versions of the guide here, as well as a one-page crib sheet.

And look at MSNBC -- Greek columns! Obama lovers!

(via Kos)

OMG:

Well, they just called IN and KY… for Ron Paul.

(kiddin')

If you want to see the real results you need to tune in to the Chiller channel. Right now there are three demons debating our existence. Or is that the one on CNN?

capt --- If that was addressed to me, then Alan asked (on yesterday's thread), so I answered.

Also, as-If brought along his delusions yesterday and I thought I'd at least correct these matters for the rest of us.

I can't see how this can be construed as the slightest bit disrespectful of a man who works hard to discover the truth; I do to, just don't work as hard at it.

That today is election day is, AFAIK, a coincidence. I'd post the same on a Friday (Muslims), a Saturday (Jews and Seventh Day Adventists), or on a Sunday; as well as also Monday, Wednesday or Thursday.

DB,

Whatever.

I'm sure if DC took issue - he would say so.

Post whatever pleases you.

"You know, Jimmy, all my life I have been afraid of only one thing -- fire. Tonight I think I'm afraid of something else."

"Afraid of what, Pa?"

"I'm just afraid that I may not have the strength to do this job. After you leave me tonight, Jimmy, I am going to pray. I am going to pray that God will help me, that he will give me the strength and the guidance to do this job and to do it right. I hope that you will pray for me, too, Jimmy."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt, quoted in Traitor to His Class, talking to his son James on the night of his landslide victory over Herbert Hoover in 1932.

capt --- Thanks. Usually I either attempt to be funny or else vent my spleen at the latest Repug antics.

Grant Park - Chicago. 40 years ago a site of violence during the Democratic Convention. I was 18, and the cops looked very mean. Jerry Rubin was in a tree saying " I'm a bird. Birds don't leave the park".

Wish I was there tonight.

Richmond, Virginia; Washington, D.C.; Central Park New York; Las Vegas, Nevada; Jacksonville, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, West Palm Beach, Florida; Indianapolis, Indiana; Detroit, Michigan - love to be in all those place tonight - Where are You?

benson -
the 9/11 commission itself stated that wtc2 "collapsed" in 10 seconds - this is the official "collapse" time.
do not try to negate this - and what happened to your foolish "fractions of G"?

bazant is either a fool or he thinks that everyone else is a fool:

http://tinyurl.com/5tmn2z

frankly, anyone with even only 1 eye in their head can see for themselves, simply by watching a video of the wtc demise, that the towers were violently exploded.
again i say that you, benson, are either a liar or you have been lied to.

as_if --- Research proceeds by finding ever better ways to analyze the data. The 9/11 commision only had the FEMA analysis to work with, and we know just how good FEMA is, don't we?

Also, appearances can be misleading.

You have been misled.

I know you won't change, so let's just drop it.

MSNBC says Libby Dole is toast. hey hey

Great bit of news Dr. Benson! Congratulations!! I hate to sound like a dummy, but... which journal was it published in?
I mean, I have a .pdf of the paper saved, but it'd be nice to see it in print where it's published.

no benson it is you who are "misled".
once again, anyone with even 1 eye can see for themselves that the towers exploded.

Why argue about it? After 20 minutes of water boarding, Cheney should admit everything. Hell, he's into watersports. He's pissed on us for eight years now.

How much liability was wiped off the books for Osama after 911?

How many no bid contracts went to al qaida since 911?

How many mesothelioma lawsuits did Halliburton avoid with the big urban renewal in Manhattan?

No mas de arbusto! No mas de Dole!

56 years of rule ends tonight?

Watch out for their spawn

"al qaeda" is arabic for "the toilet" - would any real self respecting terrorist organization refer to themselves as "the toilet"?
the Powers That Be that determine all that we see must be having a good laugh over this one.

wooohooozzz! It's President-elect Obama now.

Major Paradigm Shift.

For years I have tried to chart a new course for my life. Many obstacles have stood in my way, none more daunting than myself. For the past 11 months it seems that strong hands have been pushing me loose from my moorings, and I have stood beside myself patiently wondering which way to go.

History has confronted each of us today. Our destinies have been altered and there are possibilities never before imagined that have been born in the moment of this day.

I have always felt close to the history of our nation and the moments my ancestors and my grandparents and parents have shared with America; an experience of moments passing close to our lives, brushing us like a quiet wind in the night. These moments today are like the moments of a great storm which has passed.

When the sun rises tomorrow it is not only a new day but a whole new world with possibilities beyond those we imagined when the sun set on Tuesday.

As the Reverend Wright would surely say tonight....God Bless America.

Has there been an estimate of the crowd at Grant Park? If so, I missed it.
Wow, good speech Obama gave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY

Yes we can!

What a great day. We might just get our country back, busted up and broken down but hope lives tonight.

The planet is celebrating. Now Barack has to keep as many of his campaign promises possible, that is the nature of the rout.

I'm feelin' pretty good tonight.

A tip of the hat to the '538' site. He, or they, really knew their shyt, huh?
The popular vote was basically 51-47, and they said it translates to an electoral landslide. That was on the money.

http://blogs.chron.com/nickanderson/archives/es.bush%20closet.b.jpg

Fivethirtyeight.com

Nate Silver and Sean Quinn.

Nate is an interesting chap. Many rumors about him but he says this about himself:

"My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.

So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing -- this is my excuse."

-- Nate Silver

****

He correctly called the last world series - from what I hear. He and Sean were right on with the primaries.

He just uses the data from pollsters and he often says if the data is bad his predictions will be bad too.

The info and the way he explains stuff is all above board and although I can't claim to understand much of it - the bits I get gives him credibility.

IMO