David Corn

cindy mccain's father had connections with organized crime.

http://www.cincinnatibeacon.com/index.php/contents/comments/mccain_my_convicted_felon_father_in_law_is_role_model/

ZOMG!

The M$M meme again?

Not ahead enough? A 5% difference translates into 200 EV's.

Too busy to actually do something? The hand wringing pieces are just so over-done on every RW blog on the nets.

An original thought or two beyond:

"But there's much to happen in the next ten weeks that could determine the outcome. This could end up a blowout in either direction, or a narrow win by either side."

I mean really? Stuff will happen in the next few weeks? OMG - surprise surpsire!

Could be a blow out for either or a narrow win for either? What is the take-away? Stuff happens?

Thanks

USA Election Polls:

Obama 294 vs. McCain 244

http://tinyurl.com/5tjgw5

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Obama 284.7 vs. MCain 253.3

http://electoral-vote.com/

Obama 273 vs. McCain 252 (13 tie)

RCP - no toss ups:

Obama 273 vs. McCain 265

*****

If there is a little bounce included by his pick of Biden in the numbers it is not much but really, what does Barack need to do to change the numbers? Maybe a little gaffe or two will crush him and McCain will soar to the top!

*wrings hands non-stop*

Did I mention the PUMA's numbers were grossly overblown?

http://tinyurl.com/5pzjbx

At a restaurant on the outskirts of Denver Sunday night, some 60 women gathered at a PUMA PAC-sponsored screening of a documentary called “The Audacity of Democracy.” In interviews beforehand, many said they would defy Clinton’s calls for party unity.

*****

Again I wonder why 60 people would get any press? I mean in this day and age of the internet you can find an example of 60 of anything!

lololo

Popular Vote v. Electoral College (Why The Media Should Do Its Homework)

[...]

Take note of just how large of an electoral landslide results from a five-point popular vote victory. It's pretty massive and usually results in an Electoral Vote margin of about 200. The elections that most closely mirror the margin in the current contest are:

1992: Clinton won the popular vote by 5.6 points, winning the Electoral College by a 370 to 168 margin (a difference of 202);

1948: Truman won the popular vote by 4.5 points, winning the Electoral College by a 303 to 189 margin (a difference of 114).

http://tinyurl.com/5r2tmp

Popular Vote v Electoral Vote

[...]

Where you do see a little bit of skew are those scenarios where one candidate wins by about 5-15 percentage points. In those cases, the winning candidate tends to win by more electoral votes than is predicted by the regression line. This is because an especially high number of states are within reach for one or another candidate. In contrast to 2004, when 16 states and the District of Columbia were decided by 20 or more points, very few are polling that way this year.

http://tinyurl.com/5e5b74

*****

A little dated but the numbers and projections from Nate have always been backed up with the data and his methods. Better and more honest than many.

5%

Just about accounts for the number of blacks who will find themselves "not registered" on election day.

5%

Easy number for FLorida and Ohio and other states with the newfangled voting machines.

5%

Less than the lead in Michigan, but the M$M keeps looking for snipes (reagan democrats)

McCain looks at his father-in-law as a role model? Sure enough. Hensley never crashed a plane and never testified against his friends. McCain did both of those while serving as a hero in North Vietnam.

And now more Vietnam Vets have committed suicide than were killed in the war.

The 50 state operation only started the first of August - then Barack was on vacation but the operation is why the SD's would never flip and vote for HRC:

"At the end of the day, this organizing story was why Obama was never, ever going to be vulnerable to superdelegates overturning his pledged delegate win. Red state Democrats have understood that the "focus on a few battleground states and ignore the rest" strategy leaves them in dire straits during national cycle years. Hillary Clinton would have inspired heaviest backlash turnout by the Republican base in precisely these red states, and Clinton's campaign would not have followed the Obama 50-state strategy.

Though folks like Nate and I spent much energy during the primary explaining why proportional allocation locked in an Obama pledged delegate win by February, fewer observers grasped or were open to seeing the obvious truth that the red state superdelegates saw clearly - an Obama candidacy was going to approach organizing on their home turfs in a diametrically opposite and positive way than Hillary Clinton's campaign would have. Even if the technical coordination between the Obama staffs and downballot candidates winds up being awkward, awkward big resource effort beats a resource vacuum. There was a 0.0000000% chance the supers would have overturned the pledged outcome for precisely this nuts-and-bolts reason: the largest field operation in the history of American politics was coming down the pike."

http://tinyurl.com/5c7vvo

*****

Either Barack and his team have the right plan to win the general election or they will lose.

"And now more Vietnam Vets have committed suicide than were killed in the war. "

AND shamefully

There are more homeless Vietnam vets living on the streets today than were killed in the conflict. 40% of the homeless also have kids too.

Grrrrrrrrr.

Too bad there aren't any rich old vets worth a hundred million or better who could open some kind of non-profit for homeless vets.

These warmongers love to talk about honor and service but they seem to discard those who have served?

I am against war and military action but if we send these people into harms way - for whatsoever reason good or bad - we have to respect that contribution.

We have to do better by our vets.

The reason some people think he doesn't connect with the average American is because they are constantly being told that, by pundits like Cokie Roberts, who said vacationing in Hawaii seemed "foreign" when, in fact, he was visiting his family (I guess family values only works for Republicians on the mainland) or by political hacks like Karl Rove who can see Obama standing around a country club making disparaging remarks (a country club that wouldn't normally admit him). If the MSM was really being fair and balanced and I mean more then just Fox the average American would have a clearer picture of who he is.

More PUMA coverage?

Because they are outrageous? Really?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVHZHuyVeio

On "fair and balanced"

http://tinyurl.com/6bey77

Jon Stewart is "out of touch" HA!

lololololo

POW POW POW!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdZjZIh-750

Oh dear.

Running for Congress from Arizona in 1982, John McCain was repeatedly assailed as a carpetbagger, which he pretty much was.

At a candidates forum when the matter was brought up yet again, McCain responded abruptly, telling his rival, "Listen, pal. I spent 22 years in the Navy. My grandfather was in the Navy. We in the military service tend to move a lot. We have to live in all parts of the country, all parts of the world. I wish I could have had the luxury, like you, of growing up and living and spending my entire life in a nice place like the first district of Arizona, but I was doing other things. As a matter of fact, when I think about it now, the place I lived longest in my life was Hanoi."

(ABC)

How much more shelf life is there for an old warmonger's POW stories?

The GOP's 2008 nominee is...Eldon Smith?

It turns out that this isn't the first time the issue of John McCain's lavish multiple residences has emerged in the heat of a campaign.

In 1986, when then-Rep. McCain was running for the Senate seat vacated by Barry Goldwater, he quietly began remodeling a $500,000 house in central Phoenix owned by his wealthy father-in-law James Hensley. The $225,000 project -- which included the construction of a 4,000-square-foot addition, swimming pool, jacuzzi, cabana and barbecue -- held political peril for McCain, who was already fighting charges that he was as an opportunistic carpertbagger.

The new house was located in Phoenix's fourth congressional district -- outside of the first district in Tempe which he represented at the time.

AP caught wind of the work at 7110 North Central Ave. shortly before the general election and dispatched a reporter to examine blueprints at the planning department. They found the permit applicants were listed as Hensley and a mysterious "Mr. Smith."

The reporter tracked down McCain's plumber, who told him he'd been told Mr. Smith's first name was "Eldon."

Eldon Smith, it turned out, was John McCain.

http://tinyurl.com/6z7t7b

*****

We should never lose sight of the fact that politicians are a bunch of slimey SOB's (there might be an exception or two)

http://www.uclick.com/client/nyt/ta/

Maddow!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAUPLMcNApE

Oh noes!

A major gaffe - and Barack is busted by a kid!

http://tinyurl.com/63dphe

This will sink his poll number, he might as well just give up.

lolololololo (cuter than bugs teeth)

In a stunning reversal the pro-life republicans kill 60 live births.

US defends action and calls the 60 dead children "collateral."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7582170.stm

The "Surge" is not why the violence is down, well according to the oracle of Pretaeus

Petraeus acknowledged that this policy of modesty in the face of success is very much informed by our premature victory ejaculations of previous years (before he took charge, of course). "The champagne bottle remains in the back of the refrigerator," he says. "When you've been in Iraq for as long as actually both of us have, coming up on four years, you're a little less prone to get too excited too quickly."

..."Yes, Al Qaeda in Iraq has been significantly diminished, its capability substantially degraded," he says. "But we assess they remain lethal—what we call the 'wolf closest to the sled'." And, he adds, "every time you start to feel really good, there will be some kind of incident. There will be a suicide-vest attack; there will be a car bomb attack or what have you."

*****

Who can Johnny boy use now to support his insane delusions? Maybe some other general on the ground?

lolololo

I wonder why so many M$M peeps are hand wringing over Obama's lead yet none are asking about the fact that John McCain himself said that his candidacy was based in total on Iraq? Now Barack has been right about getting out of Iraq since before it started.

Pretaeus says the surge didn't work. 95% of our causalities have been after Bush claimed all major combat operations were over and we had attain victory?

The GOP convention will tut-tut the "success" of the "surge" while ignoring the folly of the military action in the first place.

Other than "getting" Saddam and his offspring - what have we to show for the war Bush and McCain started on a bed of lies, forgeries and fabrications?

The M$M would be hammering away at a democrat - why does McCain and Bush get a pass?

McCain is maverickety and more "rickety" by the day.

I really hope the clear thinking people in this great nation quit tuning into the lies on cable network info-tainment. The M$M corporate news needs to be put out of business since their only business is business not news or information.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJKT_Y2JkOc

Wow!

McCain goes to Hollywood - Appears on Leno, meets with celebs

For the past month, one strategy of the McCain campaign has been to paint Barack Obama as a “worldwide celebrity.” Someone who is as idolized as much as a rock star, but who is - using their tagline - “not ready to lead.” Pundits and pollsters seem to agree that this has been a successful strategy and has resulted in a leveling of poll numbers.

Despite this, however, McCain spent a lot of time with his own celebrities yesterday.

http://tinyurl.com/6za4w8

*****

Nothing surprising here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM0W84O4ApY

This is a long one - 20 minutes but it is worth watching.

If there is no faux controversy why bother to report on it 24 hours round the clock?

In separate interviews with Politico on Tuesday, Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said they have seen McCain “explode.”

“He has a huge anger problem,” Boxer said. “And he never hid that. ... I have seen it happen on the Senate floor many, many times. … He has exploded at me a couple times.”

Boxer said McCain has always apologized after the dust-ups. Nonetheless, she insinuated that McCain’s temperament makes him unfit for the White House.

“It’s all well and good to apologize,” Boxer added, “but if you are in charge of that black box, I worry about that.”

Durbin noted McCain’s temper is “well documented,” saying that he had been on the receiving end of it for what he considered “minor things.”

“I was in a confrontation with him … and he was quick to explode,” said Durbin. “It simmered for a long time.”

(politico)

****

You know, people talking about his temper might just get him all PO'ed!

The best video I've seen in a long time!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq7brOpanlY

The physics of this U.S. Presidential Election cycle -

The number of capt's posts is inversely proportional to the poll numbers for Barak Hussein Obama.

I love the smell of desperation in the morning!!!

Cheers.

Michelle Obama's Two Americas

In Denver, Mrs. Obama said, “My piece of the American Dream is a blessing hard won by those who came before me.” Those forebears, she explained, were “driven by the same conviction that drove my dad to get up an hour early each day to painstakingly dress himself for work — the same conviction that drives the men and women I’ve met all across this country…That’s why I love this country.”

In Charlotte, Mrs. Obama said, “We’re still living in a time and in a nation where the bar is set, right?…You start working hard and sacrificing and you think you’re getting close to that bar, you’re working and you’re struggling, and then what happens? They raise the bar…keep it just out of reach.”

I guess we don't get to see the real Barak OR Michelle at this convention!!!

Cheers

"But there's much to happen in the next ten weeks..."

Actually not. The period between the presumptive nominees becoming clear and the General Election is historically a pretty-near-perfectly "content-free zone."

There has actually been very little fluctuation in the polls AT ALL since the beginning of 2008... It's like all these contests have already been carved in stone.

Obama's narrow lead in hypothetical EV matchups against McCain has been consistent now for months and months and months.... (Hillary's was consistently stronger.) There's been practically no variation at all... He got a temporary bounce after clinching, but then fell right back to where he was.

The fact is, the narrow popular vote margin for Obama (consistent now for months and months as well) will almost certainly translate into a narrow EV win... Obama's total in the low 300s... The Red/Blue map will end up looking quite similar to the last two Presidential elections, with just a few extra blue states for the Democrat to nail down a narrow win.

What's that Shakespeare quote? "Like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, yet signifying nothing..." That's actually what's in store for the next ten weeks...

I'll be making a couple hundred phone calls for Jeff Merkley in Oregon, trying to take away a Republican seat in the Senate... But otherwise, I'm going to try and find something more interesting out there to think about...

On the other hand, if, after the Conventions, McCain starts running ads detailing Obama's friendship with the former bomber-terrorist Ayers...

...and McCain starts positioning himself as new kind of libertarian, low-tax populist...

Obama could easily be toast.

And, just for the record, wealthy elite types like the Roosevelts and the Kennedys had more houses than they could count, and they were still great friends of the common man... So, in terms of actual substance, the argument is totally bogus... You could compare their actual voting records and political agendas... but that kind of substantive conversation carries no weight with the politically-challenged "undecideds..."

Just pray for those invisible "new voters" to come out in force!

Here's hopin'!

FactCheck

SEN. ROBERT CASEY JR.: "John McCain calls himself a maverick, but he votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time. That's not a maverick. That's a sidekick."

THE FACTS: McCain voted with President Bush 90 percent of the time from January 20, 2001, to when Congress left Washington on its annual August recess, according to a study by Congressional Quarterly. But McCain wasn't always a staunch Bush backer. In 2005, his support for Bush's position on legislation reached a low of 77 percent; last year, when he launched his latest bid for the GOP presidential nomination, he voted with Bush 95 percent of the time.

Judge Denies White House Request for Stay, Says Miers Must Testify

http://www.pubrecord.org/law/289-judge-denies-white-house-request-for-stay-says-miers-must-testify.html
=============================
Hillary nailed her speech. Warner, not so much.

Hillary really did a bang up job of it. Knocked everyones socks off - even some RW's.

HA! Miers! And I read somewhere that the Delay thing wasn't dismissed. Moving forward for a trial.

Tom Brokaw: Hillary Clinton Did Tonight What She Needed To Do

CNN's John King: She passionately supported Barack obama... She's a big game player, that was a big-game speech... she did what Obama wanted.

Keith Olbermann: A grand slam.

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow: Anybody who could be persuaded would be persuaded by that speech. She nailed it.

Wolf Blitzer: Exactly what Barack and Michelle Obama wanted to hear.

Anderson Cooper: This speech has electrified everyone in this crowd.

******

I wonder how the GOP machine will try to put the speech down?

Well, Delay skated on one thing. The appeals court ruled that the statute covered cash and not checks. Say wha?

DeGuerin: Ruling negates charges against DeLay
Laundering law didn't include checks before '05

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/5965671.html

Gambling from space??
===============
Space Station computer infected

A laptop computer aboad the international space station detected a virus with a low level threat late last month, NASA acknowledged Tuesday.

The virus, of a type associated with online gaming, was discovered and quarantined by the machine's anti-virus software on July 25, space agency spokesman Kelly Humphries said.

http://blogs.chron.com/deepspace/2008/08/space_station_computer_infecte.html

Clinton's Thankless Job
http://tinyurl.com/5j33oo

New McCain Ad Attacks Obama Kids

In what might be his most controversial attack ad in a campaign dominated by them, presumptive G.O.P. presidential nominee John McCain today launched a new TV spot attacking Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill)'s two children.

According to political insiders, a negative ad targeting a rival's offspring is highly unorthodox, especially when the children in question are under the age of ten.

http://tinyurl.com/6ov9hn

*****

Nothing surprises me these days.

The Little Train That Could Deafen The MSNBC Set

http://tinyurl.com/5wyh5z

Too funny

Obama Modifies 'Yes We Can' Message To Exclude Area Loser

'Yes We Can, Except Nate Walsh,' Obama Says

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/85224