On Thursday, two Obama-ites asked me if John McCain's inability to recall how many houses he and the missus own is a "game changer." This suggested to me that the conventional media wisdom that Barack Obama was either slipping or not doing as well as he should be doing against McCain had taken hold within Obamaland. And perhaps the Obama-ists should be fretting, for polls are not always wrong, and voter surveys do seem to show McCain holding nearly even when external circumstances (a lousy economy, an unpopular war, $4-a-gallon gas, a populace that overwhelmingly believes the nation is on the wrong track) ought to give the fellow from the non-incumbent party a major advantage.
Thus, the desire within the Obama camp to change the game.
McCain's house--make that, houses--moment certainly is a boost for Obama. But it's unlikely to alter the fundamentals. This election is, as another piece of conventional media wisdom puts it, about Obama. Much more so than McCain. The GOPer is a known quantity. Many voters, correctly or not, believe they know the guy. Obama, even after campaigning for a year and a half, remains the new kid on the block. His challenge is to forge a bond with those in-the-middle voters, many of whom tend not to pay close attention to the details of political debate. Consequently, many of them are easily swayed by misleading or false attacks--the specifics of which they might not absorb, even as they develop an impression shaped by the attacks. (Yeah, I heard there's something about Obama's Muslim background......)
During the nomination battle, Obama was able to reach many Democratic primary and caucus voters directly--through campaign appearances, through direct voter meetings, through surrogates. And he connected. Now that he's playing to a bigger, more diffuse, and less engaged audience, it's tougher for this fresh face to forge a bond.
The pundits keep saying that Obama has to demonstrate to voters that he feels their economic pain and knows how to relieve it. That's true. But he also has to make a direct connection. He cannot just release solid economic plans and give well-written speeches on economic matters. He can indeed best McCain in issuing economic proposals. But that's not the same as getting a voter to feel that he or she knows--really knows--Obama.
So while watching the Olympics, I was surprised to see the Obama ad that has run repeatedly. It's darn conventional. The spot touts his plans for creating millions of jobs and advancing alternative energy. Wind generators are pictured. And Obama gazes in a leader-like fashion into the wonderful future. I wondered why Obama in this ad wasn't speaking directly to whoever was watching it. A commercial that claims he's great and has great ideas is not going to do much on the forge-a-bond front. Such an ad follows the conventions of standard commercials: talk at the viewer. Obama has to talk to voters. And that's more difficult in the general election than in the primaries. And the main way to reach undecided, swing, independent, or whatever-you-call-them voters is, alas, by the media and advertising.
Obama's people obviously understand this. And who knows what they have planned for the coming weeks. Still, I keep waiting for a breakthrough. Maybe that's an unfair expectation. But as the general election contest now stands, the Obama campaign cannot rely on McCain slip-ups--of which there have been many. It must create the game-change it seeks.
Comments
""if John McCain's inability to recall how many houses he and the missus own is a "game changer."""
the real "game changer" will be the florida supreme court, diebolds and an army of republican brown-shirts set out to interfere with easily interfered with voting processes.
Posted by: as_if!
| August 22, 2008 11:36 AM
No reason to feed the M$M narrative.
I posted long ago and it has come to pass:
Obama is not ahead enough?
Very funny!
He should be ahead by 10%? Maybe 20%? What would the M$M talk about - the hugeness of his lead?
The M$M has called a 46-43 a tie because we all know the MOE always favors McCain?
Barack has run a tight ship and a good campaign. You can bet he has a plan, he doesn't need a "game changer" he needs to "stay the course."
Again, if Barack is the real deal he will win. If he blows it he will lose. The M$M narrative is not news nor is it informative, more so - it is a watse of time and space to entertain their idiocy.
Thanks!
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 12:12 PM
A new video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVi4rUzf-0Q
"American Prayer"
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 12:36 PM
And this is what McCain has to offer?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHoUUEkQjTk
The McCain camp put out another installment in its anti-Obama "Celeb" ad series today. This time they're hammering Obama on taxes. The spot starts with a line about Obama's financial prosperity, a sort of counter-intuitive move considering the recent fracas over McCain's wealth and multiple homes.
"Celebrities don't have to worry about family budgets, but we sure do," the announcer says. "We're paying more for food and gas, making it harder to save for college, retirement."
The ad is not particularly original, suggesting that either this is not a serious buy (no word where it will air, though it will likely be shuffled into a previous purchase) or that the McCain camp still thinks it can bleed Obama on the celebrity meme.
UPDATE: A Democratic source emails this tidbit, undermining the idea that Obama (a celeb) doesn't have to worry about family budgets but "we" (presumably including McCain) do. "McCain spends MORE a year on house STAFF ($273,000), than the average person's home is worth ($218,000)."
This is according to personal financial disclosure forms.
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 12:42 PM
Why McCain's Homes Matter
Sen. John McCain's inability to tell a reporter how many home he owns became a major issue in the campaign last night, with segments on all three network news programs.
Chris Cilliza nails why it matters: "In politics, there is nothing worse than appearing out of touch."
http://www.politicalwire.com/
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 12:46 PM
I think it is safe to assume Barack has a plan to win and that plan was in place before the "houses" gaffe or any other freebie gramps wants to offer up as fodder.
Part of the original plan had to include using gaffes to his best advantage or would that be too ruthless for a politician?
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 12:48 PM
The American Prayer clip was great. Good job Capt.
Posted by: Alan
| August 22, 2008 1:43 PM
Susan Eisenhower bails out on the GOP
Reflections on Leaving the Party
by Susan Eisenhower
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19618
My decision came at the end of last week when it was demonstrated to the nation that McCain and this Bush White House have learned little in the last five years. They mishandled what became a crisis in the Caucusus, and this has undermined U.S. national security. At the same time, the McCain camp appears to be comfortable with running an unworthy Karl Rove–style political campaign. Will the McCain operation, and its sponsors, do anything to win?
=============
Susan Eisenhower is president of the Eisenhower Group, Inc., and chairman emeritus of the Eisenhower Institute.
Posted by: Alan
| August 22, 2008 1:52 PM
Obama has a secret plan to win, I guess.... I sure hope he lets the rest of us in on it soon.
I wasn't exactly blown away by the Chester, VA clip yesterday... He seemed more ready to ramble than rumble...
Even DC seems to be somewhat doubtful now about whether Obama's ready for prime time after all... (He does still has faith in "Obama's people" at least.)
"If Obama is the real deal, then he'll win..." (capt)
You mean if he really is the messiah after all, then he certainly will win? I guess no one could argue with that...
Obama's magic crested, unfortunately, just high enough to squeak Hillary out of the nomination (50.1%)... Now it's time to actually do the hard work of winning a Presidential election... As usual, it's only the "old politics" that seems to be working.... (Go negative BO! Go negative!)
And while I'm sure Obama's base loves the Dave Stewart video....
McCain's new ad in the meantime (while still a brazen lie of course) is punchy, direct and bone-simple... aimed right at the bullseye of the brain-dead and politically-challenged "undecideds."
(DC: "...those in-the-middle voters, many of whom tend not to pay close attention to the details of political debate..." That's putting it nicely...)
*
If Hillary had been the candidate, she and McCain would have been colorless, androgynous clones of one another. Both (in DC's words) "known quantit[ies]. Many voters, correctly or not, [would] believe they [already knew them]."
The race would have had to be about issues by default. And issues, of course, is where the HUGE Democratic advantage is this year.
But now, as DC observes, issues don't matter a whit...
Obama captured the nomination with "magic", "charisma" and "personality"...and, of course, he's brand new and "undefined" by any actual track record...
So that's what the contest is all about now... Obama, Obama, Obama... amorphous BS like "personality," "character," and (puke) "ability to connect..."
That's all code, of course, for culture and identity politics [and race]...
....and deeply-rooted psychological DIVISION more than anything else...
as_if! raises a very troubling point. The race looks like it's going to be razor thing again... right in the perfect zone for error, fluke and skullduggery....
Posted by: Diff
| August 22, 2008 1:53 PM
Denver's homeless get free haircuts to look good for Obama and his Democrats
Last month The Ticket wrote that officials in Denver, worried about the impression that 50,000 visitors to the Democratic National Convention would get next week, were planning to hide the estimated 4,000 homeless people who hang around the city's downtown area.
They arranged for free movie passes and bingo games to get them off the street, as well as temporary housing and free tickets to the zoo and Museum of Nature and Science.
http://tinyurl.com/5gv9j6
*****
I guess housing for the homeless is just too obvious a solution?
Haircuts are good, movie tickets and the rest fine and dandy but that doesn't address the real issue or am I missing something?
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 2:15 PM
Another new ad. I think they should have highlighted McCains $520.00 Ferragamo's but a pretty strong ad just the same.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZdi1JnMxFU
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 2:24 PM
Reflections on Leaving the Party
by Susan Eisenhower
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19618
****
The PUMA's should read this piece and consider the reality.
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 2:27 PM
Thanks for the Susan Eisenhower link. I've forwarded it to all the moderate Republicans I know.
Posted by: Diff
| August 22, 2008 2:49 PM
"Change has a considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful it is threatening because it means that things may get worse. To the hopeful it is encouraging because things may get better. To the confident it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better."
King Whitney Jr.
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 3:40 PM
Exclusive: Admitted McCain Letter Writer Explains Actions
Marc Ramsey Says He Was Concerned About His Viet Vet Father
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/17267476/detail.html
*****
Seems like a hate letter scared the people in the office. Heck I would be darn careful if I worked in a political office of any kind.
The real scary thing here is inmates being allowed to send hate mail? I assumed they screened the inmates mail?
If their outgoing mail isn't screened - how long until some guy sends something worse than a strongly worded letter?
The jails and prisons better do something about that before something worse happens
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 3:47 PM
McCain's Houses: The Gift that Keeps on Giving
The McCains spend more each year on house staff ($273,000), than the average American's home is worth ($266,000).
Update: McCain isn't commenting on this story. But that doesn't mean he's not out and about!
McCain, who huddled with advisors at his desert compound in Sedona, Ariz., said nothing in public. A nine-car motorcade took him to a nearby Starbucks early in the morning, where he ordered a large cappuccino. McCain otherwise avoided reporters.
Late update: The McCain's spent more on household help than they gave to charity.
(MoJo)
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 3:58 PM
McCain: Still 'The One' For Lobbyists
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgq5I8l6h7E
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 4:03 PM
Republicans just spent months building up their "Obama is elitist" narrative, only to see it come crashing down under the weight of four seven eight who the heck knows how many houses. And when I say "who the heck knows", I mean "who the heck knows". Not even McCain knows.
And this is just getting started. John McCain life and lifestyle keeps getting in the way of his campaign's best zingers. They mock Obama's visit to his grandmother in Hawaii? Turns out McCain and Cindy met in Hawaii, and then they honeymooned in Hawaii. Exotic! Elitist! Blah blah blah. It's one big long season of the pot calling the kettle black.
So what's left? With "Obama is elitist" strategy in tatters, they are forced to change gears, try to build a new negative narrative.
(kos)
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 4:17 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7GApHeJTPU
A Florida ad but it does highlight the $520.00 shoes.
Posted by: capt
| August 22, 2008 4:29 PM
The first thing Obama needs to do is to Look AT The Camera, not side to side!
Posted by: Hunter Gatherer
| August 22, 2008 7:12 PM
WASHINGTON, Aug. 21 (Xinhua) -- Iran this summer resumed buying U.S. wheat after a 27-year hiatus, a sign of the limited options for importers seeking large quantities of high-quality grain, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Since the 2008-09 marketing year began on June 1, Iran has bought more than 1 million tons of hard red winter wheat directly from the U.S., which is "a very large amount," the report quoted Bill Nelson, analyst for Wachovia Securities as saying.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/22/content_9599611.htm
so much for mcwar's "bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb iran"
Posted by: as_if!
| August 22, 2008 11:52 PM
mccain at mealtimes:
"i'll start with the beet salad, and for the main course, i will, as a former POW, have the red snapper."
http://www.dumpmccain.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=77
Posted by: as_if!
| August 23, 2008 1:21 AM
A voting system used in 34 states contains a critical programming error that can cause votes to be dropped while being electronically transferred from memory cards to a central tallying point, the manufacturer acknowledges.
The problem was identified after complaints from Ohio elections officials following the March primary there, but the logic error that is the root of the problem has been part of the software for 10 years, said Chris Riggall, a spokesman for Premier Election Solutions, formerly known as Diebold.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/21/ohio_voting_machines_contained.html
oops it's just a software glitch!
Posted by: as_if!
| August 23, 2008 3:02 AM
re: Iran this summer resumed buying U.S. wheat after a 27-year hiatus,
""if i impose sanctions against a country that i deem to be an evil regime then those sanctions only apply to countries other than my own - do as i say not as i do!""
...uncle sam
Posted by: as_if!
| August 23, 2008 3:19 AM
biden will be obama's running mate.
joe biden's congressional voting record:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/b000444/key-votes/
Posted by: as_if!
| August 23, 2008 3:58 AM
Twilight Of The Psychopaths
http://rense.com/general83/twi.htm
The only conspiracy that matters is the conspiracy of the psychopaths against the rest of us.
Posted by: as_if!
| August 23, 2008 4:12 AM
A warm congratulations to Senator Joe Biden on his VP candidate position on the Democratic ticket!
Sen. Biden called me to testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iraq in April 2004, when there was heavy fighting between the Mahdi Army and the US military. He did so on the basis of a journal article I had written on the Sadr Movement in the Middle East Journal, which he had read. That knocked my socks off. People in Washington don't often read journal articles. It struck me as the sort of thing that should happen in our democracy every day-- you write something in your specialty, and your elected representative calls you to talk about it. No lobbies, think tanks, etc. involved.
So it was a positive impression! And in the hearing he was informed and articulate.
I want to say something about the tag line in the mainstream press about Sen. Biden's alleged tendency to commit gaffes.
We have had a president for nearly 8 years who has committed almost nothing but gaffes, every day, all day. The corporate media typically forgive Bush for this and don't even often bring it up. Why is it that it is an issue for Biden but not for Bush? Could it be that corporate media is owned by . . . Republicans?
When Biden ascends to these heights of malaproprism, then we can talk about it:
'It is clear our natiion is reliant upon big foreign oil. More and more of our imports come from overseas.'
- George W. Bush; Beaverton, Oregon, September 25, 2000.
Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?-
George W. Bush; Florence, South Carolina, January 11, 2000.
We cannot let terrorists and rogue nations hold this nation hostile or hold our allies hostile.
-George W. Bush; Des Moines, Iowa, August 21, 2000.
Will the highways on the internet become more few?
-George W. Bush; Concord, New Hampshire, January 29, 2000.
If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow.
-George W. Bush; Rochester, New York, January 7, 2000.
(JuanCole.com)
Posted by: capt
| August 23, 2008 7:41 AM
Biden in some ways is the anti-Dick Cheney. And that's change the party can believe in.
(Fineman Newsweek)
Posted by: capt
| August 23, 2008 8:13 AM
With Biden the malaprop vote is a lock!
Posted by: capt
| August 23, 2008 8:14 AM
Although mine may not be a popular opinion, I believe that the biggest reason Obama is not smashing McCain is that many Americans are having a hard time giving up centuries of racism, even when doing so is decidedly in their best interests. Anecdotally, I take my father as an example: a lifelong Democrat, he was born and raised in Mississippi, and although he is intelligent and thoughtful and always said he supported civil rights, he announced that he might have to actually vote for a Republican this year. Stunned, I asked "Why?"
He said that he just didn't know if he could trust a black man (his words) with the most important job in the world.
I was nauseated. I couldn't continue the conversation. Subsequently, we have spoken of it again and I think he is beginning to reconsider, but if someone who is as Democratic and intelligent as my dad can say that, what does that bode for Independent Joe Budweiser?
Posted by: karelles
| August 23, 2008 6:38 PM
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