Following Hillary Clinton's get-over-it speech on Tuesday night at the Democratic convention, I was at a swanky party, and a political consultant I've known for years--a smart fellow who has been essential to the careers of several prominent Democratic legislators--walked up to me and said that the Barack Obama campaign had made a serious strategic mistake. "We've had two soft nights," he complained.
The first evening was the warm-and-fuzzy celebration of Michelle Obama. Then came Hillary Night. Throughout both evenings, some shots had been taken at George W. Bush and John McCain, but no real fusillade had been launched against the two. (Ohio Governor Ted Strickland had a good line on Tuesday when he quipped, "It was once said of the first George Bush that he was born on third base and thought he'd hit a triple. Well, with the 22 million new jobs and the budget surplus Bill Clinton left behind, George W. Bush came into office on third base, and then he stole second.") This consultant noted that four years ago he had argued against the stay-positive approach of John Kerry's convention. The Kerry crew's decision to not pummel Bush throughout the four-day convention is now regarded by many political pros as a major error. And this consultant was worried that the Obama camp was repeating history. "We've lost two nights," he said.
He knew that on Wednesday night, Senator Joe Biden would take after McCain. That's what veep candidates do. They play the attack dog. And every Democrat and journalist in Denver was expecting Biden to do so with enthusiasm. But regardless of how well Biden would do in this role, it did seem that the Obama campaign had relegated its assault on McCain to something of an "attack hour," rather than integrate it fully into the convention's narrative. (And Biden's attack would have to compete for attention with Bill Clinton's much-anticipated speech that night.) Though the Obama campaign did have to go through several compulsory exercises on the first two evenings--"humanize" Michelle, hail Teddy Kennedy, and pacify Hillary Clinton--it's not hard to imagine an alternative schedule that would have featured speakers or films that ripped into McCain to make the point that this election presents a fundamental choice and that a vote for McCain would be one damn serious mistake.
Obama did win the nomination by promising to rise above partisan potshots. But not every shot has to be a cheap one. The Republicans and their allies, of course, are doing what they can to make Obama seem like The Other. They question the American-ness of Obama and his wife. They lie about his tax plan. Their goal: to delegitimize Obama. The Obama campaign should not follow the GOPers into the gutter. But it does need to persuade those I-don't-know-yet voters that McCain is not only an ex-POW and self-proclaimed maverick but a fellow who--due to his conservative policy positions, connections to corporate lobbyists, cluelessness about the Internet, combustible temperament, eagerness for military confrontation and more--would be a bad president for the country. Up to now, much of the Obama campaign's assault has focused on tying McCain to Bush. (Hillary Clinton's one zinger against McCain played off this point.) But this line of attack will only go so far. On Election Day, voters will be deciding between Obama and McCain. For Obama to win, voters will have to believe McCain himself--because of his own views, his own traits--is dead wrong for the job.
Has the Obama campaign blown it? Hyperbolic questions like this cannot be answered until after the votes are cast and counted. But let's consider another question: will the Republicans at their convention next week begin with two soft nights and not try to rip the hide off Obama from the start? Perhaps. But if I were an Obama adviser, I wouldn't count on that.
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Comments
McCain is a "known" quantity. It's too late to "define" him. He earned his "maverick" status years ago, and no amount of pandering or flip-flopping can seriously damage it. You think his advisers don't know this? You think they're afraid of Democrats attacking him? It's actually a plus for them 'cause it just undermines Obama's fantasy of defining himself as a "new" kind of politician... They'd like nothing more than for him to jump down into the mud with them.
This election is Obama's to lose. And being so "new" means it's his opening performance on the public stage and time for him to get "defined" (for all time...)
He has to make himself "acceptable" and make Americans "comfortable"... If he can do that he wins...
He has to run a postive campaign to define himself as a positive and strong figure...
McCain has to do everything possible to trash him and make him seem alien...
Forget the issues. The swing voters making up their minds now are utterly impervious to them... Anyone with even the most remote grasp of the facts or issues has already made up their mind...
This is "all image, all the time" time. Gut feeling time. No logic, no facts need apply...
I talked to an elderly white Hillary supporter last night. Asked her if she'd seen Michelle Obama's speech. She obviously had. Was able to describe it in great detail. But she said she didn't watch it to the end; she had to turn it off. "I just hate her..." This woman (a swing voter over many elections) never liked Obama from the start, of course, because he was beating Hillary... And despite her many Republican votes in the past, she was hardcore for Hillary.
She was outraged by Rev. Wright... and disgusted by Michelle's unfortunate "...first time I've ever been really proud of my country" moment.
And she really likes Cindy McCain. I tried to tell her how Cindy was the many-years-younger, multi-millionaire mistress that McCain cheated with, then threw his first wife over for... that he had been a serial philanderer... (she hates that stuff).
But I could tell it just wasn't going to matter. She doesn't like Obama, he'll never be "acceptable" to her, and she's very likely going to vote against him. McCain is actually irrelevant in the equation.
Posted by: Diff
| August 27, 2008 2:53 PM
A "Fresh Air" segment (33 min.)
Partisan Divide On Health Care Reform
(Political scientist Jonathan Oberlander offers an in-depth comparison of the Obama and McCain health proposals.)
http://tinyurl.com/6bndj6
In my opinion, anyone slightly knowledgable on the subject will be horrified by McCain's god-awful positions on the subject... And Obama's clearly draw on the best thinking and analysis on the subject in the last 15 years...
But if you imagine an issues-challenged "undecided" voter listening to it...(being forced to perhaps)... you'd see only their eyes glazing over, totally, hopelessly lost in the details...
...yet remembering clearly only one sentence, "Obama puts much more faith in a government role in the health care system..."
I wouldn't let an undecided listen to that piece on a bet...
Obama's agenda (rightly) involves taxes, spending and a reinvigorated (and competent) government reasserting itself against the "malefactors of great wealth," (i.e. Teddy Roosevelt and the Progressive Era)...
....the last thing in the world we want now is for the Obama campaign to remind anyone of that fact...
...'cause all that will come through is "taxes, spending, government." In other words, political suicide.
Posted by: Diff
| August 27, 2008 3:09 PM
".......the last thing in the world we want now is for the Obama campaign to remind anyone of that fact..."
Which is why we choose to continue to plaster such dreck on national public forums.
"Concern Troll" indeed.
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| August 27, 2008 6:05 PM
I'm telling you, it's all about personality now. Obama has to make Americans comfortable with letting him become a permanent part of their family. That's just the facts. And you watch. That's exactly what he's going to do. He's not going to take your advice and try and rip John McCain's hide off.
His speech is going to be all feel-good all about the future... A few jabs at McCain, WAY short on specifics... and about as warm and homey as you can imagine...
Posted by: Diff
| August 27, 2008 8:09 PM
(National public forms are about plastering infantile dreck about the opponent right?)
It's as if some Democrats are so disgusted at the hideous garbage that Republicans have used to defeat their Presidential candidates, that they just wish, and wish that they could use as much hideous garbage to such effect in return!
The crucial dynamic is that Democrats want "good" government...we want a government that works and has the confidence of the people...
The Republicans just want to exploit, damage and rip off the government... Failure, corruption and incompetence (ala GWB) actually works in favor of their political ideology...
Posted by: Diff
| August 27, 2008 8:16 PM
it is unlikely that there are any "I-don't-know-yet voters".
people will either realize that this country's govt SUCKS, and vote accordingly, or they will vote for mccain simply because he calls himself republican.
that what my in-laws do - they vote republican no matter what - simply because they are republican.
anyway, do you suppose that obama will vow to "count every vote" just as kerry vowed to?
Posted by: as_if!
| August 27, 2008 8:38 PM
DC,
No red meats - just poultry!
It's a green convention.
Posted by: capt
| August 27, 2008 8:40 PM
Video: Rare Clip of John McCain Mocking Hard Working Americans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWOZKeOauNI
McCain knows the common folk like none other!
Posted by: capt
| August 27, 2008 8:41 PM
biden: "i am a zionist"
me: "what exactly IS a zionist?"
----
ISRAEL'S ETHNIC CLEANSING OF PALESTINIANS GROWS
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=67674§ionid=351020202
Posted by: as_if!
| August 27, 2008 8:47 PM
Last night Hillary and then tonight Bill Clinton went above and beyond the call to emphatically express the urgency, to both their supporters and ALL who would listen, that we interrupt the disastrous cyclone in which this Nation has whirled for the past eight years.
As much as I’ve been distressed by their campaign, I’m even more than grateful for their words and actions, not just to support the democratic agenda, but to step up for the correct next step in doing the right thing for the USA.
…and I thank them for doing what only they could.
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| August 27, 2008 9:43 PM
Wow...John Kerry...where was THAT guy 4 years ago?
Posted by: Hajji
| August 27, 2008 9:47 PM
4 years ago? He was ahead in the polls actually...
Posted by: Diff
| August 27, 2008 10:52 PM
Even Health Care Can Be Outsourced
Is "medical tourism" — Americans' going abroad for cheaper treatments — good or bad? The answer is "yes." It's both. But one thing is for sure: Medical tourism is here to stay. A new study by the Deloitte consulting firm forecasts that the number of Americans going abroad for care, 750,000 last year, will explode to 10 million by 2012.
---
As you can imagine, some members of the American medical establishment are not happy about the foreign competition. The Deloitte study predicts that medical tourism may cost the U.S. health-care sector $162 billion in business by 2012.
What does this all mean for American medical providers? It means they had better get cracking on supporting a national health care system that insures everyone and controls costs. Clearly, they no longer have a monopoly hold on the U.S. consumer.
http://www.creators.com/opinion/froma-harrop/even-health-care-can-be-outsourced.html
Posted by: Alan
| August 27, 2008 11:53 PM
I don't often agree with Thom Friedman, but check out his latest.
A biblical seven years
After attending the spectacular closing ceremony at the Beijing Olympics and feeling the vibrations from hundreds of Chinese drummers pulsating in my own chest, I was tempted to conclude two things: "Holy mackerel, the energy coming out of this country is unrivaled." And, two: "We are so cooked. Start teaching your kids Mandarin."
---
As I sat in my seat at the Bird's Nest, watching thousands of Chinese dancers, drummers, singers and acrobats on stilts perform their magic at the closing ceremony, I couldn't help but reflect on how China and America have spent the last seven years: China has been preparing for the Olympics; we Americans have been preparing for Al Qaeda. They've been building better stadiums, subways, airports, roads and parks. And we've been building better metal detectors, armored Humvees and pilotless drones.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/27/opinion/edfriedman.php
Posted by: Alan
| August 28, 2008 12:06 AM
""John Kerry...where was THAT guy 4 years ago?""
he was getting prepared for his big announcement/promise that he would "count every vote".
Posted by: as_if!
| August 28, 2008 3:07 AM
"what exactly IS a zionist?"
I was born and grew up in Israel. I never new the kind of bigotry common in the USA and the rest of the world till I came here. Obama may lose the election because Americans are as racist as they ever were.
A zionist is someone who wants the Jews of the world to have a national home land. The first ones looked all around the planet and ignored the middle east because they had been taught in religious classes that Israel will arise when the Messiah would come. (No, not Jesus. The Messiah.)
It was the socialists, bundists, communists and other variations on progressivisim who finally decided on going back home anyway. Fate would not be left to supernatural beings but be determined by intellect.
Intellect is Israel's strong suit. No othe nation without a vibrant Jewish minority has until recently demonstrated any great intellect. All that said, Israelis tend to ape Americans far too often. What is wrong in Israel is a reflection of what Israelis pick up on their visits to the USA. I spent my childhood playing with arab children and I can't recall a single, DIRTY JEW being flung about or F****** Arab either. Such vitriol came of Europe and the USA.
Israel does not practice ethnic cleansing but its opponents are big on the big lie theory of diplomacy. They look to their heroes of Europe's WWII and mimic the practices of the Nazi & Soviet propagandists as being effective.
By lying about Israel they hope to show the world that they are empathetic to Arabs when they are actually anti Jewish. You can't be anti zionist without being anti Jewish. Theer is no way to divorce the two.
2,000 have gone by and Jews got trampled upon anywhere and everywhere they went because no one cared about their rights. No one still cares about their rights.
Posted by: kalpal
| August 28, 2008 6:52 AM
I think that last night's session was served to refute Corn's "political cosultant's" "TWO Soft Nights Warm-Fuzziness" bullsh*t.
Last night was both warm, (Bo Biden's intro, Speilberg/Hanks tribute to military, etc) wonkish and enthusiastically INCLUSIVE.
It also served as a warning that the "curl up, roll over and try to ignore the continued swift-boat kicks to the groin" mentality that defined the post-convention decline of Kerry's failed campaign will NOT be repeated.
The Concern Trolls and PUMA-posers here and all across the "internets" are now, more than ever, wallowing in the odious stench of what they've been spewing.
...so send in the clones, GOPhers, we're united, fired up...ready...and as Bubba sed last night...on the RIGHT side of history.
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| August 28, 2008 8:19 AM
so zionists only wanted a homeland?
they shouldn't have taken someone else's homeland.
""Israel does not practice ethnic cleansing""
sure, israel is the good guys!
ya right. simply google: palestinian genocide.
here is another google: israeli brutality.
here is a good example of israeli morality:
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/palestinians.html?q=palestinians.html
""You can't be anti zionist without being anti Jewish. There is no way to divorce the two""
so if one points out israeli atrocities then one is labeled an anti-jew? on the other hand your statement puts israeli behavior right into the responsibility of all jews, is that what real jews want?
Posted by: as_if!
| August 28, 2008 8:58 AM
What happens when one points out Arab/Muslim atrocities? Is there ever such a thing as Arab/Muslim contrition? I have yet to hear of it. Being tautological by using Palestinian propaganda to prove Palestinian points comes back to pushing the big lie.
When Jews bought land in Israel that the Arabs felt was useless and then was made to be productive, the locals were incensed and murdered the Jews. The more land the Jews bought the more hate was pushed by Arab and Muslim leaders. The more often the Arabs murdered Jews, the more often the British mandate forces punished the Jews for allowing themselves to be murdered by the Arabs.
I don't claim that Jews are angelic but the more I see of Muslim and Arab behavior the less I feel any empathy for them. The Palestinians have never had a nation of their own. There was never a Plqaestinian embassy anywhere on this planet till recently. There were never Palstinian ambassadors. No Plastinain army, no judicial system, no Palstinian police, no navy. No Plastinian treaties with any other nations. Was there ever a Palestinian university?
Show me some Palstinian science. Palestine was always an aoccupied land from the time the Romans exiled Jews after winning a war.
The notion of a Palestinian nation came from Arabs who learned communism and socialism from the soviet states and decided to create a previously unexistent entity. I do no begrudge them an entity nor do I begrudge them opinions. I do begrudge them made-up facts. Let them look at their behavior early in the 20th century when murdering a jew was just a nice way to spend a day.
The more I see their current behavior lacking any sense of civilization the more I hold on to my opinion that Islam is the midst of its dark ages and is struggling hard to avoid joining the rest of humanity in the 21st century.
Posted by: kalpal
| August 28, 2008 9:36 AM
"John Kerry...4 years ago"
I remember distinctly the excitement and optimism after sitting in a packed union hall and watching his acceptance speech in 2004. EV estimates at the time put him solidly ahead.
I want so much to believe that the slime ads won't work this year. Surely the disasters of GWB have broken the spell
Posted by: Diff
| August 28, 2008 10:01 AM
The facts are:
http://tinyurl.com/5d9982
Posted by: capt
| August 28, 2008 10:47 AM
And here:
http://tinyurl.com/5tmtn2
Posted by: capt
| August 28, 2008 10:49 AM
Fabricating fallicies is just making strawmen.
If you want to be taken seriously - stick to the facts - relying on memory is risky at best.
Posted by: capt
| August 28, 2008 10:50 AM
"""The Palestinians have never had a nation of their own."""
that is typical israeli propaganda!
look here:
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/mapstellstory.html
--------------
"If I were an Arab leader, I would never sign an agreement with Israel. It is normal; we have taken their country."
...David Ben Gurion (the first Israeli Prime Minister).
"We have to kill all the Palestinians unless they are resigned to live here as slaves."
...Chairman Heilbrun of the Committee for the Re-election of General Shlomo Lahat, the mayor of Tel Aviv, October 1983.
"We must use terror, assassination, intimidation, land confiscation, and the cutting of all social services to rid the Galilee of its Arab population."
...Israel Koenig, "The Koenig Memorandum"
---------------
since you seem so keen to equate all jews with israel
why don't we examine the jewish talmud.
"The Truth About The Talmud"
Sanhedrin 55b. A Jew may marry a three year old girl (specifically, three years "and a day" old).
Sanhedrin 54b. A Jew may have sex with a child as long as the child is less than nine years old.
Kethuboth 11b. "When a grown-up man has intercourse with a little girl it is nothing."
Sanhedrin 57a . A Jew need not pay a gentile ("Cuthean") the wages owed him for work.
Sanhedrin 57a . When a Jew murders a gentile ("Cuthean"), there will be no death penalty. What a Jew steals from a gentile he may keep.
Yebamoth 98a. All gentile children are animals.
Abodah Zarah 36b. Gentile girls are in a state of niddah (filth) from birth.
http://www.revisionisthistory.org/talmudtruth.html
and joe biden is proud to be a "zionist"!
do i need to continue?
take your israeli bullshit somewhere else.
Posted by: as_if!
| August 28, 2008 10:57 AM
Wow this is just like Streisand/Potemkin in "Yentel"...
Papa...can you hear me?
Posted by: Hajji
| August 28, 2008 11:09 AM
McCain Owes America An Alzheimer's Test
22% of Americans over 70 are affected by mild cognitive impairment, while 13% of Americans over 65 have Alzheimer's. Ronald Reagan was diagnosed with Alzheimer's at age 83, but early signs were evident during his first term. Britain's "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher developed dementia at age 75.
Prescriptions can also adversely affect mental function. McCain takes Simvastatin, an arthritis drug that can cause memory loss. McCain also takes Ambien to sleep, which can cause amnesia and "fugue states" like the one that caused Rep. Patrick Kennedy's late-night car crash. If the phone rang at 3 a.m., would McCain even wake up?
http://tinyurl.com/5lxlo7
Posted by: as_if!
| August 28, 2008 11:53 AM
"Ambien to sleep"
My better half takes Ambien and it is not a weak little sleep helper. It knocks her for a loop.
FWIW
Posted by: capt
| August 28, 2008 12:16 PM
A little more chum please!
Posted by: Hunter Gatherer
| August 28, 2008 12:18 PM
You'd better be able to devote 8 solid hours to sleep, especially with Ambien CR...
Had a nurse take hers a little too early and fall asleep in the shower...
...fell and broke her wrist... out of work for 5 weeks.
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| August 28, 2008 12:18 PM
Hajji, thats health care in the 21st century, not enough nurses and too many drugs.
By Dad took two one night. Hallucinated and tried to hide between the chair and the table.
So what was McCain on when he crashed five planes? The guy never did anything heroic and was captured committing war crimes.
The day he came back I was indicted for draft evasion. People like me stopped the discriminate use of our youth for infantry fodder and the guy that can't fly comes home a hero.
Osama tried to recruit him for 9/11 but he needed pilots that could find their target.
Posted by: geof01
| August 28, 2008 2:00 PM
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