Will Baghdad Pull the Rug Out From Under McCain?

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Forget the recent manufactured news about whether Barack Obama was shifting his position on Iraq. (He's always said that he has a goal of withdrawing troops within 16 months and would aim to do so in a responsible and careful manner, meaning that it could take longer or shorter.) The real story is this: in the general election, one candidate says, This war was a mistake and we must end it and begin disengagement; the other proclaims, This war was righteous and we must keep our troops there (maybe up to 100 years) and win it. Given public opinion on the war, it's no wonder that the Republicans and the McCain campaign want to muddy up this stark difference--and the best way for them to do that is to make it seem as if Barack Obama has an unsteady hand when it comes to the war. So expect the desperate GOPers to pounce on any Obama remark that they can twist into purported proof that Obama is not really sure what he wants to do about Iraq.

But on Iraq the McCainiacs have more to worry about then Obama. They are being undermined by Baghdad. On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that he wants some sort of timetable for a U.S. troops withdrawal. Though his national security adviser added that any timetable would be conditioned on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide security, this was the first time the PM had mentioned a schedule for disengagement. (All politics is local: Maliki's party faces a stiff challenge in the upcoming provincial elections from Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who has called for the departure of U.S. military forces.)

So how can McCain and his gang now accuse Obama of being a defeatist surrender-monkey when his call for a timetable for withdrawal is echoed by the leadership of Iraq? This is a real problem for McCain. He has no edge on Obama when it comes to the economy. His only hope of upstaging Obama--policy-wise--is on national security matters, with the Iraq war front and center. But if the Iraqis don't buy the absolute necessity of U.S. troops remaining in Iraq, what does McCain have to offer? (How do you say nada in Arabic?)

I've been repeating this for a year--sorry to do so again--but the reality on the ground in Iraq in the fall will have an impact on the U.S. election. The connection used to be obvious: bad news there would be bad news for the Republicans here. But there's now another possibility: good news there could be bad news for Republicans here. If there are too many explosions and little political progress in Iraq, McCain could pay a political price on Election Day. But if the Iraqis decide they want to go it on their own with the Americans gone, McCain would have no Iraq policy left. Sure, he could claim the surge worked and try to claim credit. But voters, as the cliche goes, tend not to reward presidential candidates for past actions; elections, the consultants keep reminding us, are about the future. Americans don't want other Iraqs in the future. And without Iraq, McCain is merely a sometimes quirky Republican ex-maverick who has yet to learn how to speak convincingly about the number-one issue, the economy. He needs Iraq. But he needs it not too hot and not too cold--and the stove is far beyond his control.

    Comments

  1. DC,

    Great post and spot on!

    The Iraq issue is a loser for the R's either way. People want us out - both here and there.

    If things continue to get worse in Afghanistan it is also very bad for McCain.

    It will be interesting to see the M$M narrative on this one. They will be chipping in for Johnny as always.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 12:08 PM

  2. صفر

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 12:24 PM

  3. You seem to have a gloomy prospect for McCain no matter what could possibly happen in Iraq. However, I don't see it quite that way. If the troops are out before the election, it is Obama that has lost a polarizing issue, not McCain. It would be McCain's policies that would have accomplished success in Iraq. Obama has never supported the policies of Iraq in the first place so a perceived victory there would only prove he was wrong the entire time. I really see this exactly opposite of you. It is Obama that has everything to lose by success in Iraq. The best thing that could happen for Obama at this point is for Iraq to explode. into a full-blown civil war. And, I personally wouldn't rule that out if we left now.

    Posted by: Moonage Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 2:02 PM

  4. Tom,

    Every four years, the Democratic Party assembles a platform that outlines the party's position on a number of issues.

    Traditionally, the drafting of the platform is not open to ordinary people.

    This year, that's going to change.

    For two weeks in July, people all across America will hold Platform Meetings in their own communities to discuss the issues and share their input. The outcome of these meetings will be reviewed by the Drafting Committee as it creates the final Platform.

    No political experience is required. Your thoughts and experiences are all that matter, and they will shape a platform that -- like this campaign -- is owned by the people.

    Sign up to host or attend a Platform Meeting in your neighborhood:

    http://my.barackobama.com/listening

    This year, ordinary people like you will gather in their homes, community centers, places of worship, and even coffee shops to discuss the issues that matter to them and help decide what should be at the heart of the Democratic platform for change.

    The input we get from these meetings will help shape the platform at the Democratic Convention in August.

    Platform Meetings are a great way to connect with fellow supporters and help write the next chapter in the history of the Democratic Party.

    We'll make sure you have all the resources and support you need to succeed. All you need to provide are your ideas for America and your hunger for change.

    To get started in your community, just log onto My.BarackObama.com and go to our Platform Meetings page. (If you don't have a My.BarackObama.com account, creating one is simple and easy.)

    Sign up to host or attend a Platform Meeting now:

    http://my.barackobama.com/listening

    I hope you'll take advantage of this opportunity to make your voice heard in the political process.

    Thank you for all that you do,

    Barack
    _____________

    Well, he's asking nicely for input...

    Don't be shy...let 'im have it!

    -T

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 2:32 PM

  5. Hajji,

    The Hill shills and the McCainiacs will never input anything it is too easy to just wring their hands and worry, bellyache and bitch. Attack Barack's character, his religion, his motives, his style but never offer anything constructive.

    Concern trolls make me laugh - they are so transparent.

    lololololo

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 3:17 PM

  6. Thanks for forwarding that, Hajji. I'll be hosting a platform meeting in my neighborhood for sure. An election without an aggressive and SPECIFIC platform for change will be meaningless. I know a lot of folks, venerable progressives, who would love to put some more substance into Obama's message... and would love to counter-balance the "move to the center..."

    Yes, Moonage is right, we're in the difficult position of being tempted to hope for the worst in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    And I don't think we want to be perceived as running against an apparently-succeeding General Petraeus.

    Petraeus and the "surge" represent, in fact, a 180-degree about face in military strategy and tactics in Iraq: From Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeldian delusion to reality. Bush made a radical change in course... In fact, it wasn't a Sunni "Awakening," it was a US "Awakening." Suddenly, instead of fighting in Anbar to force the Sunnis to submit to the imposition of rule by the new Shiite rulers in Baghdad, we suddenly started paying them to be effectively independent and self-policing... WE switched sides... not THEM...

    And it may be hard to swallow, but a majority of Iraqis do not want us to leave quickly, and just say, "hey, it's not our problem anymore..."

    "Reducing violence" has meant countless saved lives. There's no integrity in running against the "surge." it's already too bad that so many progressives, including Obama, are on record confidently predicting its failure. Yes, his judgement was good in 2002, but not so good in 2004 (voting for every penny of war funding), or in 2006 (ridiculing the "surge")...

    Again, by being willing to reconsider and "refine," Obama may actually have more integrity on this issue than many of his supporters.

    Al-Maliki may be eager for a "timetable for withdrawal," but he in NO WAY wants a complete American pullout. He knows full well that his regime's security is very US-dependent. He may in fact have a much more friendly orientation toward Iran than we do, but he also doesn't want to fall completely under their sway or domination either. He, and every other Iraqi politician, is currently engaged in a very careful game, playing and balancing the US off against Iran and trying to find some room for independent maneuver and self-determination. The last thing they want is abrupt changes in policy from us to rock their fragile boats...

    I do believe both candidates have acknowledged, and are firmly ON RECORD, concerning the near certainty that some amount of backstop American troops will still be in Iraq on Jan. 20, 2013.

    All that's left to debate is a gray area of numbers and schedules (and the meaning of "combat" troops vs. whatever-other-kind-of troops you can make up), and precisely how a gradual US military disengagement will be negotiated and managed over a period of years, not months...

    I profoundly believe that Obama, Brzezinski and the rest of his advisers will be far more skillful and intelligent on the matter than McCain... but in terms of electioneering, it's a tricky problem trying to communicate such nuance to the American voting public...

    Meanwhile, Afghanistan is a whole 'nother can of worms. Correct me if I'm wrong, please, but hasn't Obama promised escalation there? Promised to redirect our troops "out of Iraq" and into the "real war" against those "who attacked us?"

    I'm sure not looking forward to that. Afghanistan and Pakistan are every bit, if not worse, the hopeless quagmires and black holes for US military involvement that Iraq ever was....

    I guess President Obama will have to learn his lessons the hard way there... Sort of like the novice President Clinton in Somalia...

    Posted by: Diff Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 5:14 PM

  7. So you guys (capt, Hajji, Pandemoniac) are all too old for military service... Are you urging your sons, daughters, nephews, nieces, and any other young people you know to go sign up for Obama's crusade in Afghanistan? To go fight "those who attacked us?"

    ...or are you just counting on other people's kids to go fight for CinC Obama?

    (Note: the Pakistani politicians who are negotiating truces with the Western tribal regions, thereby providing sanctuaries and bases for our enemies in Afghanistan, are, in fact, the new democratically-elected leaders of that country... Are we going to war against them now?)

    Posted by: Diff Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 5:22 PM

  8. Iraqi National Security Adviser: No, Actually We Are Talking About A Date For Withdrawal

    (snip)

    White House spokesman Scott Stanzel tried to downplay the significance of Maliki’s comments. While acknowledging that any agreement would have “some understanding of time-frames,” Stanzel insisted that “these are not talks on a hard date for a withdrawal.”

    Today, speaking with reporters in the Iraqi seminary city of Najaf after a meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie essentially responded that, yes, these are talks on a hard date for withdrawal:

    (Thinkprogress Wonkroom)

    Obama proves to be right again! Now what will gramps be able to say? The Iraqis are inviting surrender? The Iraqis are appeasers?

    lololololo

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:00 PM

  9. Diff,

    Would you like that in 50 words or less?

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:09 PM

  10. Double spaced in a blue book - if you will!

    lololololo

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:29 PM

  11. Those who are cynical speak of Obama and his speeches, but presidents who have been able to inspire have ended up getting more done in their time in the White House. And that is a good thing, since there is a lot to do.

    So moving the nomination acceptance speech from the Pepsi Center (capacity approx. 19,000) to Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium (capacity approx. 76,000) may be more than a symbolic gesture. It may be a sign of the potential of the American spirit that always seemed to be there, but didn't quite know how to express itself. That spirit, if Obama is elected, needs to be utilized well beyond January 20, 2009. But it's good to know that spirit exists. Standing in that empty grassy knoll, you see the possibilities.

    (Buzzflash)

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:33 PM

  12. Still with the personal crap?

    When will it stop and a serious discussion start Diff?

    Our age, our kids and our lives have NOTHING to DO WITH THE ISSUES!!!

    I think you are smart enough to know when you are making it personal, the only question is why and when will it stop?

    Personal attacks and Ad Hominem are unnecessary, it dilutes any point you might be trying to make and there is no reason for it.

    If you want to be taken seriously you have to act like an adult and quit the petty and pathetic name calling, schoolyard taunts and personal attacks.

    You have to make an effort, nobody has posted anything about your kids so STFU about that crap?

    MMMMMMMMkay?

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:41 PM

  13. Thanks!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:42 PM

  14. The Illinois Senator is asked by a voter about accusations of flip-flopping at Georgia town hall, denies that he’s been shifting stances on Iraq, guns, and the death penalty to attract more moderate voters.

    “You’re not going to agree with me on 100 percent of what I think, but don’t assume that if I don’t agree with you on something that it must be because I’m doing that politically.”

    (Time.com The Page)

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 7:43 PM

  15. Was LBH stiffed?

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 9:03 PM

  16. Benson,

    Don't DO that!

    (you say it 3 times and it appears!)

    -T

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | July 8, 2008 10:02 PM

  17. I'm thinking the other way. If US has to pull out that puts McCain and Obama in the same position. Call me crazy, but there could be a silver lining here for McCain.

    Posted by: vcsmith Author Profile Page | July 9, 2008 7:22 AM

  18. "but there could be a silver lining here for McCain."

    Everything has a silver lining with McCain - it is a senior thing . . .


    lolololololololo

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | July 9, 2008 9:29 AM

  19. "...silver lining for McCain"

    Makes me think of some words and music by Eric Idle
    __________________

    Some things in life are bad
    They can really make you mad
    Other things just make you swear and curse.
    When you're chewing on life's gristle
    Don't grumble, give a whistle
    And this'll help things turn out for the best...

    And...always look on the bright side of life...
    Always look on the light side of life...

    If life seems jolly rotten
    There's something you've forgotten
    And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
    When you're feeling in the dumps
    Don't be silly chumps
    Just purse your lips and whistle - that's the thing.

    And...always look on the bright side of life...
    Always look on the light side of life...

    For life is quite absurd
    And death's the final word
    You must always face the curtain with a bow.
    Forget about your sin - give the audience a grin
    Enjoy it - it's your last chance anyhow.

    So always look on the bright side of death
    Just before you draw your terminal breath

    Life's a piece of shit
    When you look at it
    Life's a laugh and death's a joke, it's true.
    You'll see it's all a show
    Keep 'em laughing as you go
    Just remember that the last laugh is on you.

    And always look on the bright side of life...
    Always look on the right side of life...
    (Come on guys, cheer up!)
    Always look on the bright side of life...
    Always look on the bright side of life...
    (Worse things happen at sea, you know.)
    Always look on the bright side of life...
    (I mean - what have you got to lose?)
    (You know, you come from nothing - you're going back to nothing.
    What have you lost? Nothing!)
    Always look on the right side of life...

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | July 9, 2008 9:51 AM

  20. hajji - from the meaning of life?

    McCain's silver lining started when pops, the admiral, got his unqualified son to become a pilot. Five crashes later his next silver lining was in the silk pajamas the North Vietnamese gave him for his aria. The man has been blessed like you could only expect for signing the pact with satan. Newsweek says Cindy's dad borrowed $10,000 to start his beer distributorship. It didn't mention that his (Cindy's Dad) mob ties in Vegas cleared the way as payment for his quietness.

    Whatever, they also silver line pine boxes, and we all stand in that line, priveleged or not.

    On topic. If Bush completes his secret security agreement with Maliki and agrees to a timetable (a flip flop can't hurt his ratings) then the troops come home and McCain (don't confuse me with Bush) will take the credit. Of course it doesn't makes sense, but rule one in Karl's Polotico Manifesto is that if you confuse enough people into buying your product you win.

    Posted by: geof01 Author Profile Page | July 9, 2008 11:51 AM

  21. This week I discovered a great benefit from the trillions we are wasting on National Defense. My nephew needed some temporary work after two tours of Iraq. Thank god the army knows how to train someone. He wasn't this good when he quit my force to join up. Wish my son was closer to home as well.

    In response to Diff, I don't support the war in Afghanistan. Even less than Iraq. And why we have given Pakistan $10billion to protect Bin Laden and the Taliban is even more proof that ringleader of 911 was Dick Cheney. We made al qaida. We made the Taliban. The chaos of the war there is an absurdity. We have our army, Nato, an Afghan Army??? and tribal leaders all fighting against what? The Taliban? Is our security advisor former KGB. There is no war, no opposing army in opposition, and no objective other than a pipeline project to send energy to India for an old Enron project.

    How far would the 20 trillion the Bushies have sqaundered take us toward a future free of oil?

    Posted by: geof01 Author Profile Page | July 9, 2008 1:13 PM

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