On Friday morning, on NPR's Diane Rehm Show, guest-host Susan Page made me--really, really, really made me--and the two other commentators (PR man/syndicated columnist Tony Blankley and Politico's Jeanne Cummings) predict John McCain's running-mate pick. None of us were eager to prognosticate. But Page insisted.
Earlier in the day, I had pondered the conventional-wisdom short-list of McCain's choices: Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Bush budget director Rob Portman, and former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. At least three of these contenders should be nowhere near McCain's calculations:
Ridge: He favors abortion rights. That could help McCain with independent voters, when the inevitable McCain-wants-to-criminalize-abortion ads start flooding the airwaves in the fall. But does McCain want to be at war with the base of his party from now until election day? (One problem for McCain is that he cannot win without the party's base, and he may not be able to win by catering to it. What a paradox!)
Portman: As the economy slides further into a ravine--and Bush's approval ratings remain in the gutter--does McCain want by his side the man who was in charge of Bush's budget? Portman does hail from the must-win state of Ohio, and he's considered an affable and effective campaigner. But McCain would find it harder to distance himself from Bush's economic policies with one of Bush's key economic appointees on the ticket.
Jindal: As I noted earlier, if McCain opts for this 37-year-old overachiever, he will make exorcism a campaign issue, for Jindal will have to explain his 1994 account of an exorcism in which he participated--and prove his account was true. Also, Jindal's record in Louisiana has been not-so-stellar recently. Senator, once more, can you explain whether you believe that Satanic demons can take possession of an individual and that people like your running-mate can perform amateur exorcisms to drive these spirits away?
So that leaves Pawlenty and Romney. Pawlenty comes from a swing state, but he has no standing on the national stage. "Pawlenty of nothing," one conservative pundit quipped to me recently. As for Romney, he does okay (not great) with the GOP base (the part of which that does not consider Mormonism to be an anti-Christian cult), and he can talk about his business experience at a time when the economy is ailing. One key question is, is McCain still pissed off at Romney over his attacks on McCain during the primary campaign? McCain does have anger issues. (See here for a recent example.)
When pressed for an answer by Page, I went with Romney, noting I was probably wrong. Blankley chose Ridge. And Cummings picked Portman, adding that voters would not necessarily identify him with Bush. But we all stipulated that we had no clue. As for me, I doubt that the veep pick will make much of a difference for McCain's campaign. He (and Barack Obama, too) ought to keep in mind the cardinal rule: first, do no harm. Yet that short-list is full of potential dangers.
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Comments
I think it will be Mitt, poor McCain - he has a mine field no matter what.
Thanks!
Posted by: capt
| July 25, 2008 3:26 PM
I wonder if any of the other "Keating Five" are available?
Maybe one of them can be his economic advisor?
lololo
Posted by: capt
| July 25, 2008 5:35 PM
All right, Senator, if you were president, what would you have done differently in the run-up to this war?
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: Nothing.
O'REILLY: Nothing?
MCCAIN: The president has handled this, in my view, skillfully. And I would point out that those who are criticizing the failure to get the United Nations to act in accordance with our will were the ones who urged the president vote in the United Nations.
http://tinyurl.com/6e5rnv
*****
Good thing there is some daylight between Bush and McCain. McCain can't claim he wasn't supportive of the biggestt foreign policy blunder in the history of the nation.
Um, Whoop's - he can try to lie but the record is thus.
Posted by: capt
| July 25, 2008 7:09 PM
No good VP choices for a failed candidate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16bdiY7L17M
Posted by: capt
| July 25, 2008 8:42 PM
Romney. And we thought Quayle was an idiot. At least he can rely on the Moron vote - oops.
Until recently it didn't seem possible for a candidate to achieve the status of being so much like Bush he could make Bush seem the better choice. They have got to get the exhaust leak fixed on the Straight Talk Express.
At least Reagan had one foot into his second term before Alzheimer's set in. McCain won't even make it to the convention.
We may have to worry about a severe case of the underdog effect. Maybe Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels could stand in for some campaign commercials.
And McCain should take a cue from Obama's people who had the Muslim women removed from behind the podium in Detroit - or does he have old men in every background to somehow appear younger.
Posted by: geof01
| July 25, 2008 10:34 PM
"""One problem for McCain is that he cannot win without the party's base,"""
does he really need to "win"?
did bush "win"?
Posted by: as_if!
| July 26, 2008 6:51 AM
By this account, Mr. Corn, John McCain's political career is in a parallel universe to Matthew Fox's acting career--from a "Party of Five" to "Lost."
Posted by: Wahidiyya Kosmotikos
| July 26, 2008 7:57 AM
Actually DC writes off the stolen elections unproven until it is way too late to do anything about it. His recommendation was to work on winning the house and senate and just nevermind Ohio or any irregularities as sour grapes.
I totally disagree with that.
UGH!
Posted by: capt
| July 26, 2008 8:07 AM
Post-Berlin Polls: Success 55% approve w/ Berlin Bounce +5% & Gallup 4% Move Overnight to +6
Posted by: capt
| July 26, 2008 9:01 AM
There is only one VP choice for McCain that will defeat Obama in the fall. That choice is Arnold Schwarzenegger. This election will be won in the middle by attracting independents. And, Arnold has the "star power" to match Barack's "rock star" power in the media and around the country. The RNC will hate it but it's the only way to hold on to the Oval Office in 2008.
Posted by: Thomas
| July 26, 2008 1:35 PM
Oy, vey, Maria!
Richard, your comment above that the "election will be won in the middle by attracting independents" with Arnold in the #2 spot will finally bring on Armageddon, and Maria, as Kennedy-kin and Arnold-spouse, will ride the cusp.
More seriously, would anyone in the RNC go for that, unless the Constitution is amended so that non-native-born Arnold could then run as the incumbent in 2012 or 2016?
Posted by: Wahidiyya Kosmotikos
| July 26, 2008 2:06 PM
Arnold Schwarzenegger can't be president so he can't be VP.
Posted by: capt
| July 26, 2008 2:17 PM
McCain should pick Jeb Bush!
That will make certain he is elected.
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 12:52 PM
Obama campaign response to Senator McCains latest attack ad:
John McCain is an honorable man who is running an increasingly dishonorable campaign. Senator McCain knows full well that Senator Obama strongly supports and honors our troops, which is what makes this attack so disingenuous. Senator Obama was honored to meet with our men and women in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan this week and has visited wounded soldiers at Walter Reed numerous times. This politicization of our soldiers is exactly what Senator Obama sought to avoid, and it's not worthy of Senator McCain or the 'civil' campaign he claimed he would run, said Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor.
FLASHBACK - Senator McCain in 2007: How can we possibly find honor in using the fate of our servicemen to score political advantage in Washington? There is no pride to be had in such efforts. We are at war, a hard and challenging war, and we do no service for the best of us-those who fight and risk all on our behalf-by playing politics with their service. [Congressional Record, 5/24/07]
(TPM Cafe')
It is getting sad to see how far a low McCain will stoop.
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 1:19 PM
McCAIN/HUCKABEE -That is the ticket.
I find it hard to understand how a "failed candidate" is only trailing in the polls by 5 pts. I know how much liberals love the polls. What does this say about the former south side chicago community organizers campaign?
Remember 2000 and 2004, Bush was trailing in the polls leading up to the election.
Posted by: JT Brown
| July 27, 2008 3:06 PM
The Surge in Barack's numbers IS working!
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 40%
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 3:15 PM
Hey capt. the best way to take the situation in Iraq and make it right is to do everything we can to help the Iraqis help themselves. And that means not abandoning them in the middle of a fight-or stabbing our own troops in the back by cutting off their funding (I'll give you two guesses which candidate voted to cut of funding, but you will only need one).
If we surrender, as you liberals want us to do, we'll do so much lasting damage to our standing in the world that future generations of Americans will wonder if were French.
IRAQ by the numbers:
26.7 million: The # of Iraqis now living in freedom
8 million: The number of Iraqis who voted in there first elections
21 BILLION: pork-barrel spending congressional Democrats packed into an emergency Iraq funding bill that included money for spinach growers, shrimp fisherman, and peanut storage.
240,000: Thats the number of Iraqi security forces that have been trained and equiped to protect their fellow citizens (as of 2006).
Posted by: JT Brown
| July 27, 2008 3:17 PM
Mr. Magoo and Huckberry Hound!
Yeah baby, that's the ticket!
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 3:24 PM
you are probably a Bible bashing, tax hiking, anti business, ACLU democrat!!!!!!!!!!!!
You should really re examine the way you look at things.
Do you ever ask, Why in the last 40 years have there only been 2 democrat presidents? Clinton and Carter- 2 losers!
Maybe if you put the weed down and use your brain you may come up with something!
Posted by: JT Brown
| July 27, 2008 3:33 PM
More #s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
41: Percentage of Americans who identify themselves as conservative (2007 Gallup poll)
21: Percentage of Americans who identify themselves as liberal ( 07 Gallup)
47: Percentage of conservative Republicans report to being "very happy"
28: Percentage of liberal Democrats who report being "very Happy."
1964: The last year in which a Democratic presidential candidate got more that 50.1% of the popular vote.
Hey Capt, Can you bottom line anything?
Posted by: JT Brown
| July 27, 2008 3:41 PM
Why didn't McCain want to see the troops in March?
The curious thing about John McCain's dishonorable attack on Barack Obama is that McCain himself visited Europe in March, but didn't visit the wounded troops in Landstuhl, Germany.
It's true that McCain's trip to Europe bypassed Germany -- he only went to London and Paris. But as you can see in the map below, it turns out that London and Berlin are about the same distance from Landstuhl, and Paris is just a four hour drive away.
So if McCain wanted to visit the troops, it would have been trivial to arrange -- no seismic event needed. But it's clear McCain didn't want to visit them, and as a result, it should be fair to ask McCain why he now feels entitled to attack Barack Obama.
http://tinyurl.com/57swv3
*****
Interesting to say the least.
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 4:37 PM
McCain vs. McCain Affirmative Action Showdown~!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayAvDdzA6J0
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 6:23 PM
For some fun with numbers try the RCP electoral map. You can change states to your liking. It starts off with the current projections but we are 100 days out. It does look like McCain has a bunch of work ahead if he wants to be competitive.
http://tinyurl.com/4ay44l
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 6:45 PM
Veepless in Toledo?
Posted by: David B. Benson
| July 27, 2008 7:51 PM
Pollstrology but they do call it a bounce. .
Before the trip:
* Rasmussen: Obama 46%, McCain 46%
* Gallup: Obama 45%, McCain 43%
After the trip:
* Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
* Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Posted by: capt
| July 27, 2008 9:14 PM
Again the Youtube will be McCains undoing
John McCain's Neverending War
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOCeQDHUTw8
Posted by: capt
| July 28, 2008 8:02 AM
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