Recent news out of Iraq is bad for John McCain--not the news about military developments there (May was apparently the month with the lowest number of U.S. casualties since the invasion), but the political news. On Friday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki declared that the talks on a new U.S.-Iraq security pact were deadlocked:
We have reached an impasse because when we opened these negotiations we did not realize that the US demands would so deeply affect Iraqi sovereignty and this is something we can never accept.
The U.S. and Iraqi effort to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement--which is supposed to be hammered out by the end of July--has become increasingly dicey. The Iraqi government, as provincial elections approach, do not want to say yes to the Bush administration demand that U.S. soldiers be afforded the right to jail Iraqis and conduct military operations on their own. Nor do members of Maliki's government and the parliament fancy affording legal immunity to U.S. soldiers and contractors. After all, whose country is it, anyway?
If the talks completely collapse (which is hard to imagine) and no new agreement is reached to replace the expiring U.N. mandate covering the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, the United States might have to withdraw. Whether the negotiations end in total failure or they produce an unsatisfactory-to-both-sides compromise, McCain could find himself in great political trouble.
Winning the Iraq war is the paramount issue of his presidential bid. But what if there is no war to win because the Iraqis either tell the United States to go home or won't allow it to conduct significant operations within Iraq? What if the Iraqis signal that maintaining a high level of U.S. troops in Iraq is not that important to them? How could McCain then continue to attack Barack Obama as a defeatist cut-and-runner who would imperil the United States by yanking troops out of Iraq? The war rug would be pulled out from under McCain.
I explain this more here. But the main point is that McCain's pro-war stance--as much as it is out of sync with popular opinion--could be further undermined if the government that he claims needs major U.S. military assistance says it would prefer, given the strings attached, to do without. McCain's presidential campaign is being held hostage by Iraqi negotiators.
Comments
DC,
It seems the right thing to do for all concerned is being offset by what might be best for Bush and his legacy?
Maybe both the Iraqi and American citizens have had enough?
Whether it effects the election or not is secondary - or is it?
Thanks
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 1:02 PM
This Is Why Facts Matter
Commentary Magazine ^ | 6/13/08 | Jennifer Rubin
Senior Brookings fellows Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack gave a report today and entertained questions at a Brookings briefing on Iraq. It was the single most illuminating presentation I have witnessed on the status of Iraq and the potential way forward. Neither man can be accused of shilling for either the administration or John McCain for numerous reasons: both have been strong critics of the war and O’Hanlon opposed the war and still believes on balance it has not made us safer. I understand from Brookings that the entire transcript will be posted, but I offer some highlights below.
O’Hanlon explained that the last three months has been the “spring of the blossoming of Iraqi security forces” and Iraq is on an “impressive trajectory” although we have not yet “reached a stable end point.” He stressed that the 80% reduction in civilian violence was much better than he thought possible. He went through a detailed review of Basra, conceding that Maliki’s actions took the Americans by surprise and that in the first week things went poorly. However, by the second week two brigades were deployed from Al Anbar ( a testimony to massive improvements in Iraq security force logistics) and that the mission was successful, allowing the Iraqi army and national police force to now control the streets of Basra.
Pollack echoed these observations, saying that “The headline was the emergence of Iraqi security forces.” He explained that the fundamental shift from Americans leading with Iraqis in support to Iraqis leading not just “hold” but “clear” operations is now “well underway.” He observes that sectarian divisions within the military are receding as mixed Sunni and Shia units have been successful in Basra and Mosul operations. He sees vast improvement in military leadership which “is one of the main reasons for improvement” in the security situation. He credits the military success with allowing for a “fundamental rearrangement” of Iraqi politics, observing that Maliki is now “flying high” with new found respect from Sunnis. The big picture take away, he says, it that having achieved remarkable success with major issues we now can begin to address “second and third order problems” such as insuring that military forces “stay in their lane” and do not subvert civilian leadership.
I asked O’Hanlon whether his previous criticism that Barack Obama was in denial about facts on the ground still stood. In a lengthy answer he and then Pollack avoided a partisan hit on Obama and I think revealed their true purpose: to inform the public and policy matters about the real situation in Iraq and allow Democrats to in essence climb back off the surge opposition policy limb they have crawled out on. (This is my description; they were quite tactful and even optimistic that this is a time when political leaders can reorient themselves to new facts.) Both indicated that it would be a mistake with critical provincial and national elections upcoming in 2008 and 2009 to begin an abrupt withdrawal in 2009. O’Hanlon offered that Democrats could take credit for having pressured Iraqis on a political front with the clear message that out presence would not be indefinite and that they should accept that “the good news is you may be able to leave earlier than proposed based on progress and not on defeat.”
Continuing with the answer, Pollack said that “our support is absolutely critical” in the short term and that “a massive withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2009 is not a good idea.”
O’Hanlon continued by praising McCain’s May 2008 speech that envisioned half the forces out by the end of his first term. He then said that their might be a “more optimistic” timetable which Obama could conceivably adopt whereby we would return to pre-surge levels this year, see a modest reduction in 2009 and further reductions to 50-70,00 troops in 2011.
The program continued with many more probing questions and insightful answers which I strongly encourage all to read when the transcript is available.
I think this presentation highlighted several things. First, facts do matter and they are readily available to anyone who cares to find them. Second, the wisdom of the war and the mismanagement of the war for a number of years needs, for the sake of the country’s national security, to be separated from what we do now. As O’Hanlon said “we are where we are.” Third, Democrats can save face and claim credit for pressuring the Iraqi government if they are inclined to depart from their defeat at all costs approach. Fourth, no one should be Pollyannaish about the success to date but a better outcome than almost anyone would be imagined is now possible. Fourth, the military success of the surge followed by the remarkable progress of the Iraqi military has now empowered Maliki as a truly national political leader. That is what we had hoped when the surge began and that is the basis by which we can achieve a decent outcome and eventually draw down our troops. Finally, I am considerably less optimistic than O’Hanlon that there is now a political window during which the Democrats can be weaned from their defeatist perspective. I fear it would be too great a shift for Obama and the Democrats who have banked on failure. I hope I am wrong and pray that this is the beginning of a reconciliation with reality.
Posted by: LBH
| June 13, 2008 6:08 PM
Iraqi PM opposes US plans for military bases
American plans to maintain military bases in Iraq - which could be used for an attack on Iran - have suffered a major setback.
http://tinyurl.com/3ulh76
*****
I wager the Iraqi's know darn well what's up.
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 8:25 PM
U.S. might have to leave?
Oh, goodey, goodey...
Posted by: David B. Benson
| June 13, 2008 8:56 PM
Al-Maliki aide: Iraqis mull leaving bilateral security talks
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iraq is contemplating pulling out of security talks with the United States and developing their own legislation that would dictate the shape of the American military presence in the country, an Iraqi official said Thursday.
The Iraqi government is considering this new tack out of frustration over the lack of success in negotiations with the United States over a long-term security agreement.
Haidar Abadi, an aide to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, made the remarks to CNN on Thursday about the talks, which have sparked concern among Iraqis that a bilateral security pact will compromise the sovereignty of Iraq.
http://tinyurl.com/49yxdp
*****
Does the Iraqi government think they are in charge of their country?
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 9:15 PM
Ready To Laugh At McCain Family Debt? Not So Fast ...
With news of the McCain family's six-figure credit card debt cropping up today, its not too hard to imagine a little light-hearted chuckling among middle class folks getting a look at the spendthrift habits of elites. As The Hill reported this morning, based on disclosure reports released today, Sen. John McCain and his wife Cindy owe at least $100,000 to American Express, with a "dependent child" also holding a card with a balance between $15,000 and $50,000.
But not all credit card debts are created equal. In fact, according to a prior disclosure form filed in May that was provided to The Huffington Post, a significant amount of the McCains' credit card debt is being held by American Express at an interest rate of zero percent
http://tinyurl.com/63h6um
******
Sounds like elites to me.
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 9:42 PM
McCain promised he’d offer a balanced budget by the end of his first term. Feb. 15, 2008
Mr. McCain — who said in February in Wisconsin that he would balance the budget by the end of his first term as president — seemed to reconsider that on Tuesday, saying at a news conference later in Villanova that "economic conditions are reversed" and that he would have a balanced budget within eight years. April 15, 2008
John McCain will not leave office without balancing the federal budget. He will not do it with smoke and mirrors. When he leaves office, he wants to leave a budget that stays balanced after he is gone... April 15, 2008 press release
Republican John McCain said yesterday that cutting taxes and stimulating the economy are more important than balancing the budget... April 20, 2008
Confused? So is John McCain.
(kos)
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 9:46 PM
General admission at Federal Hall (a first-hand account of McCain '08 in action)
[...]
They couldn't find enough McCain supporters to fill 200 seats! So they let in a dozen people (myself included) from the street. Even more astonishing is that I saw numerous McCain staffers sitting down filling up space (staffers normally stand on the periphery). Clearly they were not able to fill the place, even with passers by, and used staffers to fill in the rest so it would not look empty broadcast live on Fox.
http://tinyurl.com/3fad56
*****
The early bird dinner special at the senior center in Boca is more popular.
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 10:03 PM
McCain Forgets His Social Security Stand
Another "Ooops! I Forgot About You Tube!" moment for John McCain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyBwMy27Aoc
(via kos)
*****
The gaffe that keeps on givin'!
Did I mention McSame will continue to misspeak?
Posted by: capt
| June 13, 2008 10:15 PM
McCain on Gitmo Decision: Pandering, Flippant, or Just Out of Touch?
Jaw-dropping Comment on Supreme Court
Senator John McCain today called the Supreme Court decision protecting the right of habeas corpus for prisoners in Guantamo Bay “one of the worst decisions in the history of this country.”
People For the American Way President Kathryn Kolbert released the following statement:
“Senator McCain has gone out of his way to appease the far right-wing of his party on the subject of the Supreme Court, but his latest comment is either ill-considered pandering, a ridiculously flippant comment, or just plain out-of-touch. Any way you read it, there’s no good explanation.
“The Supreme Court’s decision to stand up and protect the right of habeas corpus is one of its proudest moments. It’s appalling that Senator McCain would compare it to a decision that blacks and whites should drink from separate water fountains. Or that hundreds of thousands of Japanese Americans should be imprisoned in internment camps. Or that African-Americans should not be counted as persons under the law.
“One is reminded of the old quote: ‘Better to keep your mouth closed and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.’”
http://www.pfaw.org/pfaw/general/default.aspx?oid=25225
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 9:50 AM
WAY to go JEDREPORT(new McCain VIDEO)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GALgSFAS5RU
******
"That's not anything we can believe in"
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 10:20 AM
There's a big difference between Iraqis not going along with the Bush wish list on a status of forces agreement, and their asking us to pull out...
Al-Maliki and the Iraqi population are deathly afraid of a rapid US withdrawal. They all know it would most likely lead to a resumption of civil war (which the "surge" had a lot to do with suppressing).
Al-Maliki knows his fragile government relies totally on US military support. If his government fell, the likelihood of anything remotely resembling "peace and stability" is flat zero.
The irony of the whole discussion is that Iraq is actually the least important issue at stake in this election. Believe it or not, that's true.
I'm not saying it won't be a major factor in the campaigns, since campaigns are always about BS, but, in reality...
The US is totally boxed in now in Iraq. We removed the on-scene strategic counter-weight to Iran (Saddam), and are now locked in...
The political situation inside Iraq is extremely fragile and the fledgling government we've sponsored is profoundly weak...
We're not accomplishing anything proactively, but we are preventing a far more unpredictable and unstable situation... both inside Iraq and in the region generally...
No matter whether the next President is McCain or Obama, the policy will actually be the same: HOPE for a very gradual and careful withdrawal, leaving behind a stable Iraq that won't be a terrorist-haven or a puppet of a resurgent Iran...
...and very likely a long-term residual US military presence of some sort.
You're just dreaming if you think Obama is going to pull out every last soldier in 18 months. At a primary debate, both he and Hillary acknowledged that at least some significant number of our troops would still be there at the end of their first terms.
Sorry, those are the facts. Anything else is campaign BS (which this blog is full of).
The only difference is the rhetoric that the two possible Presidents will apply to the situation:
Obama: "Responsible withdrawal from Bush's disastrous strategic error."
McCain: "Well-deserved withdrawal after a great US victory."
Otherwise, the policies will be far more similar than not.
"Choices" in foreign policy are available BEFORE you start a war. Once you're involved in military action, available options start to shrink drastically.
Posted by: Diff
| June 14, 2008 12:43 PM
And that, of course, will prove especially true if this or the next President makes the incredibly stupid move of attacking Iran.
I have a deep faith that Obama will be the least likely to attack Iran (if Bush doesn't pre-empt him by attacking first), but Obama did passionately promise the Israel lobby that he would do "ANYTHING" to stop Iran from getting a nuke...
Posted by: Diff
| June 14, 2008 12:49 PM
That's what Obama was likely chewing Lieberman out about:
"I pandered as hard as I could to AIPAC! Why did you have to go and stab me in the back anyway!"
Posted by: Diff
| June 14, 2008 12:50 PM
Maliki raises possibility that Iraq might ask U.S. to leave
BAGHDAD — Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki raised the possibility that his country won't sign a status of forces agreement with the United States and will ask U.S. troops to go home when their U.N. mandate to be in Iraq expires at the end of the year.
Maliki made the comment after weeks of complaints from Shiite Muslim lawmakers that U.S. proposals that would govern a continued troop presence in Iraq would infringe on Iraq's sovereignty.
"Iraq has another option that it may use," Maliki said during a visit to Amman, Jordan. "The Iraqi government, if it wants, has the right to demand that the U.N. terminate the presence of international forces on Iraqi sovereign soil."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/41047.html
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 1:24 PM
The bottom line is this - the Iraqi's frigging hate us. We sanctioned them, bombed them, invaded them, destroyed their infrastructure, killed hundreds of thousands of them, and continue to occupy them. Imagine if the Chinese, for instance, had done this to us. All in the service of bringing us a worker's paradise, of course. If only we would embrace their vision of the future, we could all prosper as friends. You know damn well we would shoot their troops every chance we got. The Iraq experiment is a failure, a bloody and wastefully expensive failure, perpetrated by a jibbering sociopath in the White House and the manipulative neocons that surround him. Now the willfully deluded old fool that wants to succeed Bush mutters about Iraq being a success, and looks forward to an occupation similar to Germany.
Let's get out soon. How many more soldiers have to die for a vicious and stupied lie?
Perhaps we can be spared the humiliating news footage of helicopters rescuing the last Blackwater thugs from the rooftops of the Green Zone.
(KOS)
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 1:45 PM
If the Iraqi's told us to leave tomorrow it would take about 24 to 36 months to redeploy - exactly what Barack said he is gong to do.
At 24 months we will have been in Iraq 7 years - if the puppet government can't retain power and govern - 100 years won't help.
Barack is right.
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 1:49 PM
McCain Says No to Returning Funds Raised by Controversial Oilman
By Juliet Eilperin
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will not return the $300,000 raised by a Texas Republican who joked in 1990 that women should submit to rape and "enjoy it."
Yesterday McCain cancelled a fundraiser that Texas oilman Clayton Williams was planning to hold at his Midland, Tex. home on Monday, after The Washington Post and ABC News questioned what the senator thought of Williams' remarks that women should give in while being raped. "As long as it's inevitable, you might as well lie back and enjoy it," he said during his unsuccessful bid for governor against the late Ann Richards.
Williams, who told the Midland Reporter-Telegram that he had already raised $300,000 for the presumptive GOP nominee, also said at the time that when it came to campaigning against Richards, he would "head her and hoof her and drag her through the dirt" like a cow on his ranch.
http://tinyurl.com/3vgdlw
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 3:38 PM
Diff --- I cannot imagine that pulling out of Iraq will make things worse there. I am sure that almost all Iraqis want just that.
They didn't care much for the Brits when those folk tryed to run the place in the 1920s.
I'd rather they settle matters on their own. Couldn't be worse than it is now.
Posted by: David B. Benson
| June 14, 2008 7:30 PM
"What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?"
~ Mahatma Gandhi, "Non-Violence in Peace and War"
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 9:36 PM
McCain says it's 'tough' to (be) proud of America
In one fell swoop, John McCain has neutralized one of the most potent lines of attack against Michelle Obama, telling a questioner at a town hall event that he feels "it's tough, it's tough in some respects" to be proud of his country. Jonathan Martin delivers the goods:
So a man finally got a question into McCain and he had a very different sort of question.
The questioner noted that he had been educated at Princeton and Harvard and made more than $300,000 a year.
"How can I be proud of my country?" he asked.
Get it — he was mocking Michelle Obama and her statement earlier this year that her husband had for the first time in her life made her proud of her country.
Well, McCain either missed the joke or decided to ignore it and answer the question literally. I think it was the former because the individual asking the question had a thick accent that sounded to be either Indian or Pakistani, perhaps suggesting to McCain a recent immigrant grappling with America's image abroad.
"I’ll admit to you that it’s tough, it’s tough in some respects," McCain said, seeming to lend credence to Michelle Obama's observation.
McCain said America needed to be "more humble, more inclusive."
What an idiot. The rightwing nutjobs must be furious!
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/06/mccain-says-its.html
******
The gaffe that keeps on giving, eh?
Posted by: capt
| June 14, 2008 10:01 PM
Happy Fathers Day!
Posted by: capt
| June 15, 2008 9:20 AM
McCain has diluted his rare reputation
John McCain once had the most powerful brand in American politics.
He was often called the country's most popular politician and widely admired for his independent streak. It wasn't too many years ago that "maverick" was the cliche of choice in describing him.
But that term didn't even make the list this year when voters were asked by the Pew Research Center to sum up McCain in a single word. "Old" got the most mentions, followed by "honest," "experienced," "patriot," "conservative" and a dozen more. The words "independent," "change" or "reformer" weren't among them.
Voters have notoriously short memories, but it could be argued that McCain cheapened his own brand.
http://tinyurl.com/42qgv5
Posted by: capt
| June 15, 2008 4:53 PM
McCain just got Old.
Ought to be a pasture ornament...
Posted by: David B. Benson
| June 15, 2008 6:20 PM
With McCain voters should consider odds of Alzheimer's as they should with any candidate
The fact of the matter is that as we age, the chances of developing Alzheimer's disease increase. There are relatively simple, if time consuming, psychological tests to increase the accuracy of predicting one's odds. I was given a half hour version of the test on the phone before I could get long term health care insurance. Is such a test part of McCain's public medical record?
Most people have a general idea of signs of Alzheimer's or dementia, often from having a loved one with the disease. But there are also many misconceptions about what is normal and what should be of concern. There are many web sites which can be helpful. A good one is "Warning Signs of Alzheimer's" (LINK) from the Alzheimer's Association.
You can read this web page and click off your own list of indications that an individual, from John McCain to yourself, may need a medical work-up with a specialist.
http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/8556
*****
There should be a medical record for mental health.
Posted by: capt
| June 15, 2008 6:44 PM
I'd like to distinguish 'brain health' from 'mental health'. It is possible to have a healthy brain, but still be mentally unhealthy, as in sociopathy, I think.
For some rare exceptional cases, it is possible to be mentally healthy with an unhealthy, at least abnormal, brain.
Posted by: David B. Benson
| June 15, 2008 7:22 PM
WARE: What we’re also hearing from the Iraqi government is they may go it alone, using a hangover snippet of law left over from the original American occupation authority of Paul Bremer.
They could create their own legislation in their own Congress or Parliament, and thereby dictate to America what U.S. troops can and cannot do in this country, where they can go, where they must stay, and how many you’re allowed to have. So you may see the Iraqis taking over this war, and you may see a lot of U.S. gains being drawn back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo54NhiyQig
******
We might have to "liberate" Iraq from the puppet government?
Maybe better if we just bring the troops home?
Posted by: capt
| June 15, 2008 10:15 PM
Late Saturday afternoon, a McCain aide confirmed to the Chronicle that the Midland event had been postponed but had not been taken off the calendar. The compromise allowed McCain to say he had not held a fundraiser at Williams’ house; it gave Williams an opportunity to say that the event he organized had not been canceled.
*****
McSame has the same ethics as Bush.
Posted by: capt
| June 15, 2008 10:27 PM
Hello everyone.
I wanted to let you all know about some big things going on with the Hillary / PUMA Party movement.
PUMAParty.Com recently launched a combination of tools to help everyone spread the word and support causes related to Hillary, PUMA and anything else relevant
There are now over 425 members on the forums and many more are registering daily to show their support. There are sections to organize, network and take action. Time is limited so any suggestions or info you could share would be awesome.
Also, at the same website you can now get your very own PUMA Party Blog in a few seconds. Use it to post your thoughts, ideas, suggestions, press releases or anything else you feel is important. Each blog is linked from the homepage that receives thousands of hits per day.
I have also been notified by the admins there that they are willing to do anything they can to help the various causes related to PUMA etc. including spreading press releases to supporters, starting forum sections so that supporters of individual causes can network with the overall user base, fundraising efforts or anything else they can help with.
I hope you'll all stop by and say hello and help us move forward.
Thanks for a wonderful site, I will ask them to add it to the link section if it's not there already. Please link back if possible.
http://www.pumaparty.com
Talk to you all soon,
Amy
Posted by: PUMAParty.Com
| June 15, 2008 11:45 PM
Ok, that last post brought me out of lurking mode. I had to see this PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) Party for myself. All I can say is wow. Non-stop Obama bashing, banning around 1/5 (over 100 bans) of the forum members for being Obama supporters, even a call to action to skew an online poll. Nothing but Freepers by another name. You are in great company Amy.
Posted by: eyes_open
| June 16, 2008 4:13 AM
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