Might we have to wait until the first ballot at the Democratic convention at the end of August to know who will be the Democrats' presidential nominee?
It's already a much-noted mathematical fact that it is virtually impossible for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to win enough pledged delegates (via the primaries and the caucuses) to grab 2025 delegates, a majority of all the delegates (pledged delegates plus superdelegates). So the nearly 800 super Ds will be a decisive bloc.
The superdelegates, of course, do not have to say for whom they expect to vote at the convention, though they are free to do so. HRC has been faring better than Obama among the superdelegates who have committed publicly. But Obama has been steadily closing this gap, and Clinton leads 248 to 213 in the superdelegate race. Now that it seems possible--and probable--that this close Obama-Clinton race will continue on competitively through the final primaries in June, there is incentive for those 300-plus undeclared superdelegates to stay mum and see how the contest plays out.
Come the end of the primary and caucus season, even with the declared superdelegates factored in, neither candidate may have enough delegates to claim the prize. At that point, more undeclared superfolk may start proclaiming their preferences--or they may not. Which means that for June, July, and August--when the elections and debates are long done--the race may be shaped by the public and not-so-public hunt for superdelegates. The media will try to track the SDs, as the campaigns pursue them with vigor.
But remember that a committed superdelegate does not have to keep his or her word. They can flip. So even if one candidate claims a majority of delegates based on the public declarations of superdelegates, that will not mean that he or she has the nomination in his or her pocket. Life is change, right? External events--or internal deals--could intervene and cause committed superdelegates to reconsider for the best or worst of reasons. Whichever candidate is in second place in total delegates will have a strong incentive to remain in the race (as long as the gap is not so large) until the convention, just in case anything happens.
So prepare yourself for several months of waiting and jockeying and perhaps even....suspense at the Democratic convention. In a close race, it will be hard to call the contest on the basis of superdelegate pronouncements. A commitment is not a vote--especially for politicians.
Comments
Looks like the Dem primary will be decided by big money lobbist!
~~~
New York Times
March 15, 2008
Delegate Battles Snarl Democrats in Two States
By MICHAEL LUO and JOHN M. BRODER
Democrats in Michigan and Florida struggled Friday to resolve the impasse over their disputed January primaries, coming up with a plan to hold a June primary in Michigan while remaining deadlocked in Florida.
Reflecting how tense the situation has become, influential fund-raisers for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton have stepped up their behind-the-scenes pressure on national party leaders to resolve the matter, with some even threatening to withhold their donations to the Democratic National Committee unless it seats the delegates from the two states or holds new primaries there.
The committee penalized Michigan and Florida for holding their primaries early in violation of national party rules, barring their delegates from being seated at the Democratic convention this summer. But with the Democratic contest now a scramble for every remaining delegate, the allocation of delegates from the two states could have a substantial impact on the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton won the primaries in both states, but the contests were not sanctioned by the party, neither candidate campaigned in the states and Mr. Obama did not even put his name on the ballot in Michigan.
Pushing to seat the Florida delegates, at least one top Clinton fund-raiser, Paul Cejas, a Miami businessman who has given the Democratic National Committee $63,500 since 2003, has demanded Democratic officials return his 2007 contribution of $28,500, which they have agreed to do.
“If you’re not going to count my vote, I’m not going to give you my money,” said Mr. Cejas, who was the United States ambassador to Belgium from 1998 to 2001.
Christopher Korge, a Florida real estate developer who is another top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton, held an event last year in his home that brought in about $140,000 for the national party, which was set aside in a special account for the general election battle in Florida. But he told committee officials this week that if Florida’s delegate conundrum was not settled satisfactorily he would be asking for the money back.
“If we do not resolve this issue,” Mr. Korge said, “I think it’s safe to say there will be a request for a return of $140,000.”
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 3:54 PM
Here’s the list of all the Rezko-linked contributions Obama is contributing to charity, including previously released contributions:
Rezko, Antoin 9/1/1999 $1,000
Abboud, Anthony 3/27/2000 $850
Abboud, Anthony 6/30/2003 $500
Abboud, Anthony 3/5/2004 $250
Abboud, Anthony 6/25/2004 $1,000
Abdalla, Mustafa 6/30/2003 $1,000
Abruzzo, Steven 6/30/2003 $1,000
Almanaseer, Imad 3/12/2004 $1,000
Almanaseer, Imad 5/24/2004 $2,000
Aramanda, Joseph 3/17/2000 $1,000
Aramanda, Joseph 6/30/2003 $500
Aramanda, Joseph 3/5/2004 $10,000
Arons, Jennifer Shaxted 3/17/2000 $1,000
Ata, Ali 6/30/2003 $5,000
Barta, James 6/30/2003 $2,000
Butler, Velma 6/30/2003 $1,000
Cacciatore, Joseph 6/30/2003 $1,000
Cari, Joseph 5/16/2003 $335
Cari, Joseph 12/5/2003 $1,000
Carriglio, Jack 6/30/2003 $1,000
Chaib, Al 6/30/2003 $5,000
Cherry, Myron 7/27/2004 $500
Chipparoni, Guy 6/30/2003 $2,000
Di Benedetto, Vincent 6/30/2003 $10,000
Farahati, Mandan 6/30/2003 $2,000
Fishman, Judi 12/31/2002 $1,000
Fishman, Judi 12/31/2002 $500
Glennon, John 1/8/2004 $1,000
Gustman, Lisa 6/30/2003 $1,000
Hatchett-Polk, Bernice 12/31/2002 $1,000
Hatchett-Polk, Bernice 3/31/2003 $500
King Dibble, Kelly 6/30/2003 $250
Lannen, Kathy 6/30/2003 $2,500
Lavin, John 4/4/2005 $300
Licata, Anthony 10/8/2004 $1,000
Mahru, Daniel 3/17/2000 $1,000
Mahru, Daniel 3/5/2004 $5,000
Malek, Michel 6/30/2003 $10,000
Malek, Michel 9/15/2003 $500
Maloof, Elie G. 3/17/2000 $1,000
Maloof, Elie 12/30/2003 $10,000
Massuda, Fortunee 1/26/2004 $2,000
Mesi, Philip 6/30/2003 $2,000
Mesi, Philip 12/31/2003 $10,000
Mesi, Philip 6/10/2005 $1,000
Morgan, Craig 3/5/2004 $10,000
Nammari, Suheil 6/30/2003 $2,000
Othman, Talat 6/30/2003 $1,000
Pollock, Martello 6/30/2003 $1,000
Ray, Paul 12/31/2002 $1,000
Ray, Paul 6/30/2003 $3,000
Ray, Paul 10/6/2003 $2,000
Rezko, Rita 9/1/1999 $1,000
Rezko, Aboud 12/31/2002 $1,000
Rezko, Aboud 12/31/2002 $500
Rezko, Rita 12/31/2002 $500
Rezko, Rita 12/31/2002 $1,000
Rezko, Antoin 12/31/2002 $1,000
Rezko, Antoin 3/31/2003 $500
Rezko, Antoin 10/3/2003 $10,000
Rosenberg, Thomas 6/23/2004 $2,000
Rosenberg, Thomas 6/28/2007 $2,300
Rosenberg, Thomas 9/18/2007 $2,300
Sirazi, Semir 6/30/2003 $1,000
Sirazi, Semir 6/30/2003 $1,000
Smith, Jacqueline 6/30/2003 $1,000
Sreenan, Michael 6/30/2003 $2,000
Wade, Deloris P. 3/17/2000 $1,000
Wade, Deloris 12/31/2002 $1,000
Wade, Deloris 12/31/2002 $500
Wade, Deloris 6/30/2003 $1,000
Winter, Michael 6/30/2003 $3,000
Wislow, Susan 6/30/2003 $2,000
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 3:56 PM
Thanks for the education on this compelling issue.
I'd like to see both of these candidates demonstrate wo is the better by going after their opponent McSame, rather than each other. Now THAT, would be good for the Democratic Party.
Posted by: Neil
| March 17, 2008 4:00 PM
Rassmussen Poll
Just 8% Have Favorable Opinion of Pastor Jeremiah Wright
Monday, March 17, 2008
Pastor Jeremiah Wright, who has become part of the national political dialogue in recent days, is viewed favorably by 8% of voters nationwide. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 58% have an unfavorable view of the Pastor whose controversial comments have created new challenges for Barack Obama’s Presidential campaign.
Wright was Obama’s Pastor until he retired last month, but Obama has repudiated the preacher’s comments.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters say that Wright’s comments are racially divisive. That opinion is held by 77% of White voters and 58% of African-American voters. In addressing the issue, Obama warned against injecting race into the campaign .
Most voters, 56%, said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama. That figure includes 44% of Democrats. Just 11% of voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of Wright’s comments.
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 4:02 PM
When will McSame return political contributions donated and bundled by lobbyists including American Expats in Britain, the trip to which US taxpayers are paying the frieght. See, there are perks to being a two-time encumbent. Vote McSame.
Posted by: Neil
| March 17, 2008 4:08 PM
What, no LBH ranting and raving?
Has he been Bear Sternsed?
Posted by: David B. Benson
| March 17, 2008 4:54 PM
Poll: Majority of Democrats prefer Obama
(CNN) -- A majority of Democrats would like to see Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton win their party's presidential nomination, according to a national poll out Monday.
Fifty-two percent of registered Democrats questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey say the senator from Illinois is their choice for president, with 45 percent supporting Clinton.
The poll also suggests Democrats are more enthusiastic about an Obama victory (45 percent) than for a victory by the senator from New York (38 percent).
*****
Seems the Wright smear job was just wrong?
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 5:07 PM
Delegate update: The 'magic number' changes
WASHINGTON (CNN) — As Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama crisscross the country accumulating both votes and delegates, the two Democratic presidential hopefuls are discovering that the actual number of delegates needed to win the nomination, the so-called "magic number," is a constantly moving target.
What does it take to win? As of today, 4,047 delegates will vote for the nominee, according to the Democratic National Committee. That means that a candidate needs 2,024 delegate votes to win. These numbers do not include Florida and Michigan, which will be adjusted if the states hold races in compliance with DNC rules.
The new totals are the result in small changes in party membership in several states, including the home states of both candidates. The newest Illinois superdelegate, Rep. Bill Foster, pledged his support to Obama, who helped him win the seat of former House Speaker Denny Hastert.
Clinton lost a superdelegate vote in New York with the resignation of Eliot Spitzer as governor, since Gov. David Paterson is a DNC member at-large who already had a vote. Paterson previously pledged his support for the New York senator.
Other changes include the addition of newly elected Indiana Rep. Andre Carson, who his late grandmother, Rep. Julia Carson. He remains uncommitted. John Melcher of Montana will represent National Democratic Seniors Coordinating Council, adding one more superdelegate vote for the Big Sky State. Former DNC chairman and Clinton supporter Ken Curtis lost his vote because he moved to Florida.
CNN also updated its Iowa delegate estimate based on results from county conventions held Saturday. Obama gained seven additional delegates for a revised total of 23, while Clinton lost one delegate, dropping her Iowa delegate total to 14, according to CNN estimates. Former Senator John Edwards held on to eight delegates, down from the 14 delegates CNN originally had estimated he won at the precinct caucuses on January 3.
CNN currently estimates Obama with 1,618 votes (1,411 pledged, 207 Superdelegates) and Clinton with 1,479 (1,242 pledged, 237 Superdelegates).
Click here for a breakdown of delegates by state.
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 5:28 PM
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted by telephone March 14-16, with 1, 019 Americans questioned, including 463 registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic.
~~~~~~
Only 463 reg voters out of 1019? Sounds pretty scientific~
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 5:31 PM
Someone must think I'm bold!
bold /boʊld/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[bohld] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective, -er, -est. 1. not hesitating or fearful in the face of actual or possible danger or rebuff; courageous and daring: a bold hero.
2. not hesitating to break the rules of propriety; forward; impudent: He apologized for being so bold as to speak to the emperor.
3. necessitating courage and daring; challenging: a bold adventure.
4. beyond the usual limits of conventional thought or action; imaginative: Einstein was a bold mathematician. a difficult problem needing a bold answer.
5. striking or conspicuous to the eye; flashy; showy: a bold pattern.
6. steep; abrupt: a bold promontory.
7. Nautical. deep enough to be navigable close to the shore: bold waters.
8. Printing. typeset in boldface.
9. Obsolete. trusting; assured.
—Idiom10. make bold, to presume or venture; dare: I made bold to offer my suggestion.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sounds about right~~~
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 5:42 PM
Zogby Poll: U.S. Wants McCain to Answer the Phone
GOP presidential candidate seen as best to handle a 3 a.m. crisis at the White House
UTICA, New York – The recent Hillary Clinton campaign advertisement asking who Americans want answering the phone in the White House when a crisis erupts at 3 a.m. has sparked a national debate about which candidate would best handle such a phone call. But while the ad was designed to boost the Clinton candidacy, likely voters nationwide say they would feel more secure having Republican John McCain answering the call of a crisis, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.
Given the choice between Clinton and McCain, 55% preferred McCain while 37% would want Clinton to answer the phone, while 9% said they were unsure.
If there is a crisis in the world and the telephone rings at 3 a.m. in the White House, who would you feel more secure answering that phone – Hillary Clinton or John McCain?
Hillary Clinton
37%
John McCain
55%
Not sure
9%
Between McCain and Obama, 56% favored McCain while 35% preferred Obama, with 10% saying they couldn’t make up their mind on the question.
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 5:45 PM
Obama says he didn't know about the hate speech his pastor of 20 years was spewing every Sunday.
Obama say's he didn't know his buddy Rezco of 20 years was a crook.
What will Obama tell us he didn't know next?
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 5:57 PM
Look up what "scientific polling" means?
You will sound better informed if you avoid the really dumb statements.
Just a thought.
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 5:59 PM
Has he been Bear Sternsed?
~~~~~~~~~~~
Obama is the biggest recipient of donations from JPMorgan employees _ Obama received $270,000, Clinton's contributions were nearly $200,000 and McCain's were more than $60,000.
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 6:05 PM
Look up what "scientific polling" means?
You will sound better informed if you avoid the really dumb statements.
Just a thought.
~~~~~~~
Now I didn't attack you personally, just broke down the poll results by respondents.
Why do you find persoanl attacks necessary and then accuse me of doing it?
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 6:08 PM
Obama walks arrogance line
By RON FOURNIER, Associated Press Writer
Mon Mar 17, 1:57 AM ET
WASHINGTON - Arrogance is a common vice in presidential politics. A person must be more than a little self-important to wake up one day and say, "I belong in the Oval Office."
But there's a line smart politicians don't cross — somewhere between "I'm qualified to be president" and "I'm born to be president." Wherever it lies, Barack Obama better watch his step.
He's bordering on arrogance.
The dictionary defines the word as an "offensive display of superiority or self-importance; overbearing pride." Obama may not be offensive or overbearing, but he can be a bit too cocky for his own good.
The freshman senator told reporters in July that he would overcome Hillary Rodham Clinton's lead in the polls because "to know me is to love me."
A few months later, he said, "Every place is Barack Obama country once Barack Obama's been there."
True, there's a certain amount of tongue-in-cheekiness to such remarks — almost as if Obama doesn't want to take his adoring crowds and political ascent too seriously. He was surely kidding when he told supporters in January that by the time he was done speaking "a light will shine down from somewhere."
"It will light upon you," he continued. "You will experience an epiphany. And you will say to yourself, I have to vote for Barack. I have to do it."
But both Obama and his wife, Michelle, ooze a sense of entitlement.
"Barack is one of the smartest people you will ever encounter who will deign to enter this messy thing called politics," his wife said a few weeks ago, adding that Americans will get only one chance to elect him.
Obama's cool self-confidence got him into trouble in New Hampshire when he said Clinton was "likable enough," faint praise that grated on female votes who didn't appreciate him condescending to the former first lady.
Privately, aides and associates of Obama tell stories about a boss who can be aloof and ungracious. He holds firmly to views and doesn't like to be challenged, traits that President Bush packaged and sold under the "resolute" brand in the 2004 election. For Bush, those qualities proved to be dangerous in a time of war and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
If arrogance is a display of self-importance and superiority, Obama earns the pejorative every time he calls his pre-invasion opposition to the war in Iraq an act of courage.
Posted by: LBH
| March 17, 2008 6:14 PM
Ok, I've had my daily drivel now that LBH arrived.
Posted by: David B. Benson
| March 17, 2008 7:30 PM
I just realized - LBH is the Tokyo Rose of the David Corn blog.
Posted by: flan
| March 17, 2008 8:55 PM
"Look up what "scientific polling" means? "
If you don't know that Rassmussen polling service only conducts "scientific polling" (as does most alll polling services) or you think one is more scientific then you are dumb, nothing personal.
If you took the time to look anything up you will sound better informed and therefore less ddumb - a simple fact not a personal anything.
Here is a hint - most all scientific polls use a standard sample. They “poll” about 1,000 (usually random) persons. Within that group polled only so many will be democrats or republican so that number will be less than the thousand so 400-500 as a group is about standard.
Educate yourself and you will be better informed.
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 9:48 PM
So:
"Only 463 reg voters out of 1019? Sounds pretty scientific"
Yes it does, and your comment was dumb, uninformed, silly, meaningless, etc.
Nothing personal.
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 9:54 PM
Obama's Minister Committed "Treason" But When My Father Said the Same Thing He Was a Republican Hero
[…]
The hypocrisy of the right denouncing Obama, because of his minister's words, is staggering. They are the same people who argue for the right to "bear arms" as "insurance" to limit government power. They are the same people that (in the early 1980s roared and cheered when I called down damnation on America as "fallen away from God" at their national meetings where I was keynote speaker, including the annual meeting of the ultraconservative Southern Baptist convention, and the religious broadcasters that I addressed.
Today we have a marriage of convenience between the right wing fundamentalists who hate Obama, and the "progressive" Clintons who are playing the race card through their own smear machine. As Jane Smiley writes in the Huffington Post "[The Clinton's] are, indeed, now part of the 'vast right wing conspiracy.'
Both the far right Republicans and the stop-at-nothing Clintons are using the "scandal" of Obama's preacher to undermine the first black American candidate with a serious shot at the presidency. Funny thing is, the racist Clinton/Far Right smear machine proves that Obama's minister had a valid point. There is plenty to yell about these days.
*****
How double standard of them, eh?
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 10:03 PM
Ohio's voting machines are now an official crime scene
At least 15 touch-screen voting machines that produced improbable numbers in Ohio's 2006 statewide election are now under double-lock in an official crime scene. And the phony "Homeland Security Alert" used by Republicans to build up George W. Bush's 2004 vote count in a key southwestern Ohio county has come under new scrutiny.
*****
Are we suppose to feel like this election will be free fair and transparent?
Posted by: capt
| March 17, 2008 11:43 PM
Taking a break from the Late Niters and turning to the Master of Disaster himself, the Ayatolla who went AWOLa, the Ace of Space Cadets, the boy in the DC bubble, GWBush. You ain't seen funny till you've tried reading LBH's gibberish or tried to listen to Mr. 20% speak in public. Check it out:
"And so, General, I want to thank you for your service. And I appreciate the fact that you really snatched defeat out of the jaws of those who are trying to defeat us in Iraq."
--to Army Gen. Ray Odierno, Washington, D.C., March 3, 2008
"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that."
--Washington, D.C., Feb. 28, 2008
"I'm oftentimes asked, What difference does it make to America if people are dying of malaria in a place like Ghana? It means a lot. It means a lot morally, it means a lot from a -- it's in our national interest."
--Accra, Ghana, Feb. 20, 2008
"There is no doubt in my mind when history was written, the final page will say: Victory was achieved by the United States of America for the good of the world."
--addressing U.S. troops at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Jan. 12, 2008
"I can press when there needs to be pressed; I can hold hands when there needs to be -- hold hands."
--on how he can contribute to the Middle East peace process, Washington, D.C., Jan. 4, 2008
"In the State of the Union a couple of years ago, I addressed the issue of steroids, and the reason I did so is because I understand the impact that professional athletes can have on our nation's youth. And I just urge our -- those in the public spotlight, particularly athletes, to understand that when they violate their bodies, they're sending a terrible signal to America's young."
--on the baseball steroids scandal, Dec. 14, 2007
"The decisions we make in Washington have a direct impact on the people in our country, obviously."
--New Albany, Ind., Nov. 13, 2007
"If you've got somebody in harm's way, you want the president being -- making advice, not -- be given advice by the military, and not making decisions based upon the latest Gallup poll or focus group."
--New Albany, Ind., Nov. 13, 2007
Two Bushism on the same day?!! You know what that means.... He's drinking again (with apologies to David Letterman).
"I don't particularly like it when people put words in my mouth, either, by the way, unless I say it."
--Crawford, Texas, Nov. 10, 2007
"In other words, he was given an option: Are you with us or are you not with us? And he made a clear decision to be with us, and he's acted on that advice."
--on President Pervez Musharraf, Crawford, Texas, Nov. 10, 2007
Again, two Bushisms on the same day?!! WTF?
"We're going to -- we'll be sending a person on the ground there pretty soon to help implement the malaria initiative, and that initiative will mean spreading nets and insecticides throughout the country so that we can see a reduction in death of young children that -- a death that we can cure."
--Washington, D.C., Oct. 18, 2007
"All I can tell you is when the governor calls, I answer his phone."
--San Diego, Calif., Oct. 25, 2007
That one cracks me up every time!! Seriously. How do journalists avoid rolling in the aisles during press conferences. This guy is comedic GOLD, comedic PLATINUM, he is the comedic bomb-a-dealio.
"My hearts are with the Jeffcoats right now, that's what I'm thinking."
--telling the press what is stirring in his cranium after meeting with California wildfire victims Kendra and Jay Jeffcoat, San Diego, Calif., Oct. 25, 2007
"I fully understand those who say you can't win this thing militarily. That's exactly what the United States military says, that you can't win this military."
--George W. Bush, on the need for political progress in Iraq, Washington, D.C., Oct. 17, 2007
As Gramps McBush would say, give us a huuuuuuug! As I said during the 2006 election, not impeaching Bush was the best thing the Democratic Party has done to ensure their majority in decades. He was the 2000 lb. millstone hung around the neck of every GOP candidate in 2006. He will do the same to the old fart who would inherit his spot as the GOP representative in the general election. And he is the reason that the Dems will expand their advantage in the House and make life miserable for the GOP in the Senate.
Libby Dole headed the NRSC in 2006 and sat on her hands as the GOP lost the Senate. Mel Martinez headed the NRSC for an entire 10 months! John Ensign will be sooo ready to resign from his post as head of the NRSC when this election cycle is over. He couldn't recruit anyone to fight for Pryor's seat. Couldn't recruit anyone to take on Tim Johnson who is recovering from a stroke and represents a moderate to conservative state. Lautenberg is almost twice my age and Ensign couldn't recruit a decent opponent for him either. Good thing I'm a young buck otherwise Lautenberg might be past the expiration date on his label.
Again, the GOP is soooo DMW.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 12:08 AM
*snort* and lololo
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 12:33 AM
Remember when the folks working for Mr. 20% decided that big chunks of the cost of the Iraq war could be paid for by Iraq oil revenue?
"Paul Wolfowitz, deputy defense secretary, was even more upbeat before a hearing of the House of Representatives appropriations committee on March 27. "There's a lot of money to pay for this that doesn't have to be US taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi people," he said. "On a rough recollection, the oil revenues of that country could bring between $50bn and $100bn over the course of the next two or three years."
Well, it turns out that they were half right, oil is being used to fund the fighting.... by the insurgents.
How is it that just when the Gang That Can't Shoot Straight (or even enlist in the Armed Forces in times of war) always finds a way to muck things up in Iraq?
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 1:00 AM
Hunter Thompson would laugh to see those whom he termed the "pigs" and "fascists" getting their asses handed to them at the polls.
Fear and Loathing in the GOP
Republicans See Storm Clouds Gathering
Some hilights (or lowlights -- depending on how you view these clowns):
It started with the loss last weekend of the seat held for two decades by former House speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). It got worse when Republicans lost potentially strong challengers to Democratic senators in South Dakota and New Jersey, and failed to field anyone to oppose the reelection bid of Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.).
The latest blow came with the revelation that the former treasurer of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had allegedly diverted hundreds of thousands of dollars -- and possibly as much as $1 million -- from the organization's depleted coffers to his own bank accounts.
"It's no mystery," said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.). "You have a very unhappy electorate, which is no surprise, with oil at $108 a barrel, stocks down a few thousand points, a war in Iraq with no end in sight and a president who is still very, very unpopular. He's just killed the Republican brand."
Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst of congressional politics, said: "The math is against them. The environment is against them. The money is against them. This is one of those cycles that if you're a Republican strategist, you just want to go into the bomb shelter."
On Thursday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its congressional race outlooks to list nine Republican House seats -- and one Democratic seat -- as tossups. Foster's reelection prospects shifted from a tossup to his advantage.
Cook now lists the Senate seats of Republicans Ted Stevens (Alaska) and John E. Sununu (N.H.) as tossups, along with the seats being vacated by Republicans Wayne Allard (Colo.) and Pete V. Domenici (N.M.). Former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner, a Democrat, is listed as likely to claim the seat of retiring Republican Sen. John W. Warner.
In the House, Republicans have largely failed to recruit credible candidates for the swing-district seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.) or to challenge several Democratic freshmen who took GOP seats in 2006.
But some of that NRCC cash, instead of bolstering Republican candidates, will go to lawyers and accountants as officials try to unravel the damage they said has been done by former treasurer Christopher J. Ward. They already have spent $370,000.
But other Republicans worried that news of what could become one of the largest political frauds in recent history may dampen fundraising as donors question the committee's controls on their money.
===+===
And just as a reminder, Democrats won almost all of the tossup races in 2006 as well as some Red-leaning races. Dead. Man. Walking.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 1:28 AM
I just recently found the new blog. Do any of the other classic trolls ever show up, or is LBH the last of the breed?
Or has there always been only one troll, using many names?
As for HRC and Obama, I can't understand deep love or deep hatred for either of them; they both seem like standard-issue DLC Democrats to me.
Posted by: Ivory Bill Woodpecker
| March 18, 2008 7:24 AM
Going Nowhere: The DLC Sputters to a Halt
March 3, 2005
In May 2003 the centrist Democratic Leadership Council published its yearly list of "100 New Democrats to Watch." The DLC frequently puts out these lists as a way to publicly solidify its identification with the New Democratic movement within the Democratic Party. The 2003 list, however, contained a number of questionable additions, including then-Illinois State Senator Barack Obama. As a state senator, Obama had continually passed progressive legislation--a record that he vowed to add to when he began his run for the US Senate on a platform of clear opposition to the Patriot Act, the Iraq War and NAFTA, all positions anathema to the DLC. The puzzling addition caused The Black Commentator magazine to wonder, a month after the DLC list came out, whether Obama had been "corrupted" by the centrist group. Obama's reply to the Commentator was indicative of how the DLC plays the "New Democrat" card.
"Neither my staff nor I have had any direct contact with anybody at the DLC since I began this campaign a year ago," Obama wrote. "I don't know who nominated me for the DLC list of 100 rising stars, nor did I expend any effort to be included on the list.... I certainly did not view such inclusion as an endorsement on my part of the DLC platform." After realizing that his name appeared in the DLC's database, Obama asked to have it removed. The message was clear: The DLC needed Obama a lot more than Obama needed the DLC.
*****
Um, HRC is DLC but BHO - not-so-much.
Barack won't even let the DLC list his name.
FWIW
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 9:23 AM
"The Democratic Party's Deepest Internal Battle: It's Not One of Gender and Race" The Progressive Wing Vs. the NeoCon/DLC Wing.
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 9:37 AM
Contrarry to his recent claims, McSame stood with this administration on Iraq from the beginning. Now he claims otherwise. Let's go to the TAPE.
Posted by: Neil
| March 18, 2008 10:29 AM
MC-SAME in '08
Posted by: Neil
| March 18, 2008 10:31 AM
Ivory Bill,
I've seen only one other familiar troll on the blog and it's possible they are one in the same. LBH has honed his cut-and-paste skills and makes up for the absence of the rest. It got to the point where David Corn posted a comment asking LBH to "not overdue it" which I took as a polite request to STFU. Just joking. Actually, I took it as a request to repond to the topic of the post and subsequently any reasonable debate on political issues stemming therefrom as opposed to using the comment section as a bulletin board.
Good to see you back.
Posted by: Neil
| March 18, 2008 10:38 AM
"Do any of the other classic trolls ever show up, or is LBH the last of the breed?"
Posted by: Ivory Bill Woodpecker March 18, 2008 7:24 AM
The old Tims never seemed to make it back. I'm waiting for TimL to show up and explain how even though The Stupidest Fucking Man on the Face of the Earth (Feith, not Bush, According to Tommy Franks) had PROOF, a smoking gun the Pentagon found absolutely no connection between Iraq and AQ..
Eventhought the Dingbats swore that AQ and Iraq were directly connected (remember the one-legged Jordanian who turned out to have two legs, that sought treatment in Iraq?). They went from WMD... to WMD-type "programs" that were inoperable and "intentions" that were foiled by inspections and sanctions. They went from hard and fast connections from Iraq to AQ... to AQ-"type" groups in the middle east.
They've accomodated the lies of the Bush Administration so completely that they've moved the goalposts halway to the moon. They must be on the way to that Mars Space Station that Mr. 20% promised us he'd build. Remember that? Now THAT was good for more than a few giggles, eh?!
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 11:04 AM
If there were to be a Hall of Fame for top comments on this blog, this would be my nomination:
Wow, nothing has changed in the comment section. Capt provides interesting links, quips with LBH. Pande provide interesting comments and link and quips with LBH and then we have Eyes_Open, Hajji, Ivory Bill Woodpecker and others jumping in - with more insightful comments. And then there is LBH - again with his incessant talking points - he must get them through a subscription service or something.
It would be funny if our very way of life wasn't under attack by the right wing fear and loathing machine.
Posted by: flan March 17, 2008 12:33 AM
I must admit I laughed out loud every time I went back and read that "subscription service" quip. I think EO pointed out that LBH's Zombie Chow source is websites like Free Republic and LIttle Green Nutjobs. I also think that flan greatly overstates my role on this blog.
I mostly just come here to get under LBH's skin, watch him get all worked up and yak up the zombie chow that he's ingested from his RSS. I know that my provocations cause LBH's head to pop; however I can't help but get a kick out of watching his noggin swell and blow.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 11:16 AM
"you're the one who belongs to a church that said 911 was because of gays.... I really don't need to say anymore about this~
Posted by: LBH March 14, 2008 3:50 PM
That in and of itself isn't very funny until you scroll down and see a mere 3 paragraphs below he suddenly does feel the need to talk about it:
"Still doesn't change the fact that Pande goes to a bigoted church~~"
Posted by: LBH March 14, 2008 3:50 PM
That's one of those times when he yaks up the Zombie Chow and proceeds to sit in it. Poor guy.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 11:32 AM
I mostly just come here to get under LBH's skin, watch him get all worked up and yak up the zombie chow that he's ingested from his RSS.
~~~~~
You silly cornnut, I don't get worked up. If I got all worked up over 5 or 6 cornnuts coming at me all the time then I wouldn't keep coming back to put some perspective on this web site.
A personal attack by a cornnut is like gettting an irritating itch. It goes away after putting some cornnut disinfectant on.
~~~~~~~
You all should be talking about Obama and his hate white america church instead of talking about me all the time.
Posted by: LBH
| March 18, 2008 11:36 AM
Be Happy everyone!!!!
Posted by: LBH
| March 18, 2008 11:37 AM
Great Speech!
I hope everybody caught it.
This guy can talk the talk.
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 11:45 AM
Florida Democrats drop bid to stage primary re-run
MIAMI (Reuters) - Florida's Democratic Party said on Monday it would no longer push for a rerun of the state's invalid primary election to pick a presidential nominee, leaving a decision on what to do with the state's delegates entirely to the national party.
I was hoping Florida and Michigan would re-vote after giving both candidates a chance to campaign fairly. Hopefully the state leaders have learned their lesson about breaking the rules. Who knows what sort of hairbrained solution the national leaders will come up with now.
Posted by: eyes_open
| March 18, 2008 11:54 AM
I think the original agreement included the eventual nominee seating the delegate from FL and MI AFTER the nominee was selected.
The 2024 number excludes FL and MI and can still be achieved - yes it would take some superdelegates but one or the other can still hit the number then seat the delegates.
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 12:06 PM
Obama scores big on the issue of race. Great speech.
On the other hand, he is the luckiest politician on the face of the earth. Just when the Dingbats are trying to make hypocritical hay over Wright (given statements by Parsley and Hagee, which LBH has done a wonderful job documenting and repeating, thus hilighting the hypocrisy even further), the issue of Spitzer hits the headlines. And when Spitzer's story starts to die down, McGreevy pipes up. And when McGreevy pipes up. The markets blow up. No one except the deadenders and Koolaid enemites like LBH have even a passing interest on what Wright said.
This all leaves Obama in the clear like the whole Rezko matter. No more screeching about Rezko? Let's hear it.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 12:20 PM
I can't wait to see BHO on stage debating McSame.
It is not even a close match - totally unfair.
What will grandpa do?
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 12:26 PM
A McCain Gaffe in Jordan
AMMAN, Jordan -- Sen. John McCain, traveling in the Middle East to promote his foreign policy expertise, misidentified in remarks Tuesday which broad category of Iraqi extremists are allegedly receiving support from Iran.
He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda. In fact, officials have said they believe Iran is helping Shiite extremists in Iraq.
Speaking to reporters in Amman, the Jordanian capital, McCain said he and two Senate colleagues traveling with him continue to be concerned about Iranian operatives "taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back."
Pressed to elaborate, McCain said it was "common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known. And it's unfortunate." A few moments later, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, standing just behind McCain, stepped forward and whispered in the presidential candidate's ear. McCain then said: "I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda."
*****
Seems like all of that experience ends up being a bit confusing?
Did I mention McSame will talk his way out of the race. He just can’t help himself.
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 1:21 PM
One of the things that caught my attention about Mr. Corn's earlier writing was the title of his book Bush Lies. After reading several books documenting the outright lies told by the DMW party to dupe fools like LBH into voting for them, I found it astounding that any informed reader would fall for their lies repeatedly (after carefully being shown by me that they were swallowing DMW Zombie Chow).
By copying and pasting this story:
ON DEADLINE: Obama walks arrogance line
By RON FOURNIER, Associated Press Writer Mon Mar 17, 1:57 AM ET, LBH has set himself up for a fall again.
It starts off by admitting that Obama doesn't fit the definition of Arrogance. Then it moves on to quote some statements that Obama made and admits that they were said Tongue-in-cheek (jokingly).
The article claims that Mr. and Mrs. Obama ooze entitlement without offering any evidence. It quotes Obama complimenting Hillary Clinton and calls it a put-down.
Most tellingly, LBH only copies and pastes the first half of the article. At the end of the article, the author quotes Obama making claims of being imperfect as well as other self-mocking claims.
The article also claims that Obama's antiwar speech did not pose a threat to him politically (something that LBH echoes frequently). By the time Obama made the speech in Oct. of 2002, Obama had already decided to run for Republican Peter Fitzgerald's Senate seat. He knew that the speech would be used against him by the DMW slime machine. It didn't work because he was right.
The article also claims that Obama ducked the issue of the Iraq war in his keynote address at the 2004 Dem Convention. Surprise. Surprise. That's a lie too, Gomer
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 1:43 PM
The link to Obama's Speech.
Posted by: Pandemoniac
| March 18, 2008 1:44 PM
Pande, I pointed out LBH sources not so much because where he was finding them because they were from other sources, but because he was apparently not following the links to find what he considered relevent only regurgitating the pre-prepared exerpts from FR. Intellectual laziness at its finest. Of course a site that overtly flaunts its bias would only include portions they find convenient.
Posted by: eyes_open
| March 18, 2008 2:02 PM
IAG
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 2:11 PM
It's over. Obama is the nominee.
It was extremely unlikely that Hillary Clinton was going to overcome Barack Obama's lead in delegates, states and total votes and take the Democratic nomination, but Obama's speech this morning -- graceful, thoughtful, nuanced, sweeping, challenging, unprecedented -- pretty much wiped out any chance at all. It was a speech Hillary could never have given -- really, few U.S. politicians ever could have given.
I write this not just because I think this will dampen the Rev. Wright controversy. I write this because Obama did an extraordinary job of presenting himself as the candidate of "the better angels of our nature," to use the phrase from Abraham Lincoln's first inaugural address. His speech isn't just inspirational to millions of voters who are tired of cynicism and division. I think many in the political media will see it as redemptive on personal grounds. Maybe they really aren't spending their careers in swampland.
Which not-so-coincidentally is the name of Time magazine's fine national politics blog.
Posted by: capt
| March 18, 2008 3:01 PM
Who here prefers O'bama (my favorite candidate and an Irishmen to boot) to Clinton and McCain besides me and LBH?
Posted by: Neil
| March 18, 2008 3:55 PM
Blitzer does deserve being singled out in the fashion that Obama did. Blitzer has always toed the corporate mark and ignored any and all evidence to the contrary. His manner of dealing with the movie Sicko was also the same as his confrontational approach is to Reverend Wright's 1% of criticism of America. He will never deal with the race issue itself because his bosses will see it as a minefield to be avoided at all cost. Race must never be publicly discussed by the MSM unless Bill Clinton does it. Blitzer will keep on being more of a weasel than a wolf.
Posted by: kalpal
| March 19, 2008 9:01 AM
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