David Corn

David, Howard Dean said a day or so ago that now the GOP has coalesced around their nominee, the Dem's must do the same or risk losing an advantage in the fall. What advantage is that? I haven't seen anyone play around with what seems like a good scenario for the Dems of a prolonged battle. That is, the longer Obama and Clinton duke it out in rolling primaries, the more news cycles they dominate while McCain's campaign advisers struggle to get TV crews or pundits or voters to pay attention to their foregone conclusion. Normally, prolonged battles would be a bad thing from a resource standpoint, but if Obama can raise $7 million in 48 hours (it takes McCain 48 days to raise 7 million) then he won't be depleted of resources. My scenario, of course, rests on the dem's taking the path to victory that is laid out before them: nominate and run Obama.

Anybody that would throw $35 million of his own dollars into the ring then steps out is banking on a return. I am certain Romney hopes for a shot in 2012.

Romney's ego is still convinced and he is hedging his bets that McCain will not win.

Whether or not McCain loses in November, Romney will remain the heartthrob of many conservative activist.

Hearthrob. Isn't that language a little excessive, whether you're inferring his supporters has a love relationship with him or whether you're poking fun at it, or both.

Back to the main pont. You're right about Romney. He'll be back.

But, but, but...He IS the DREAMIEST!...sigh...

He IS the DREAMIEST!...sigh...

My better half says that title belongs to George Clooney.

Romney is a clipart picture.

My Prediction~

If McCain wins the general his VP will be the likely front runner for 2012 not Romney. McCain will most likely pick a conservative running mate, unless he decides to screw the right wing blow hards and run with Lieberman.

Romney is only popular with the right wingers because Thompson dropped out, he will fade away now and won't matter much in 2012.

If Obama wins it won't matter who is running in 2012 because he will win re-election by a landslide.

If Hillary wins it also won't matter beacuse she will steal the election again in 2012 and we all will be screwed.

Romney is 61? Would have never guessed it. Shows how much I am following things these days.

McCain claims to be a Reagan foot soldier. Reagan would never have voted against tac cuts. Reagan would never have supported McCain/Feingold. Reagan would never have supported McCain/Lieberman. The list goes on and Reagan would never have supported McCain/Kennedy having learned his lesson with he amnesty bill he signed.

Somebody on this post noted that conservatives are only a small portion of the republican party. They said that McCain can win with Moderates, Independents and some cross-over Democrats. McCain is going to find out the hard way. The base of both parties are the ones who contribute o campaigns. They are the ones who encourage their friends, family etc to contribute. They are the ones that volunteer to register voters, go door to door wih literature, volunteer to operate phone banks, lick envelopes and stamps. If the base is not behind the parties candidate, things can go down the tube and fast. McCain already has the majority of conservaive talkers on his bad side. Combine that with a lack of support from the base, and he has a tough row to hoe. It doesn't matter if the Democrat nominee is Hillary or Obama. But he would have an easier time with Hillary because of the negative baggage she already brings to the party er.. election. McCain will also lose support from special inerests if it looks like he can't win over his base. Special interests will throw their money at a winner. No need to donate to the evenual loser.

Just a thought with this in mind. I am a conservative who will be wearing an Obama button soon. McCain has shown nothing but contempt for conservative values since inauguration day, 2001. He was a sore loser then and still is. He supports winning in Iraq and Afghanistan which is easy because say what you will, most americans and politicians want to win. Neither party want to be seen as a failure in winning the war.

Nuff said.

sapienti sat

Does The Brownshirt Party Have Aces Up Its Sleeve?\

The Brownshirt Party has chosen John “hundred year war” McCain as its presidential candidate. Except for Cheney, Norman Podhoretz, and billy kristol, McCain is America’s greatest warmonger.

In a McCain Regime, Cheney will be back in office with another stint as Secretary of War. Norman “Bomb-bomb-bomb-Iran” Podhoretz will be Undersecretary for Nuclear War with General John “Nuke them” Shalikashvili as his deputy. Rudy Giuliani will be the Minister of Interior in charge of Halliburton’s detention centers into which will be herded all critics of war and the police state. billy kristol will be chief White House spokesliar.

The whole gang will be back--Wolfowitz, Perle, Wurmster, Feith, Libby, Bolton. America will have a second chance to bomb the world into submission.

I have a question for David and others here..

When the DNC punished Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries, all democrat candidates followed the DNC and did not campaign in either state or removed their name from the ballot., except for Hillary. Bad political move on the others part or political inside trickery on part of the Clintons knowing that if Michigan and Florida delegates were not included, they could sue the DNC to have them included? The way the democrat race is going, this could prove big. Especially if the Clinton's have to sue to get Hillary elected as the nominee. Should that be the case, will that mean the significant loss of a lot of the black electorate come November? If his race continues to be tight, not only will the Clinton's be buying Hillary's nomination, they will be suing for it.

A side note: If the Democrat candidates are serious about global warming, why did they not discourage democrats voting in those two states from going to the polls to reduce the Earth's carbon footprint? Just curious.

I just requested my Obama for President button from Hajji. Will soon be proud to wear it. Eat your heart out McCain. Not that he really gives a damn but I do.

Tytandamar, I doubt Hillary will sue for those delegates. It would be too easy to spin as " Look! Hillary is so desperate she's resorting to legal tricks to try to win."

There is a reason she stayed in. It either happens in court or back door dealings. Sad thing is that if it needs to be done, it will be done.

Maybe HRC can go to the SCOTUS and get them to stop counting the votes to protect "equal protection under the law" just like Bunnypants?

Sounds fair enough?

"Ambition often puts men upon doing the meanest offices; so climbing is performed in the same posture with creeping."
~ Jonathan Swift (1667 - 1745), Miscellanies, 1711

Ron Paul Likely to Drop Out of '08 Race, Will Not Run as Third Party Candidate

Another sad day. Pretty soon we'll only have McCain.

In an email to supporters last night, the New York Times notes Rep. Ron Paul conceded that his chance to win the Republican presidential nomination are "nearly zero."

But despite raising tens of millions of dollars, Paul "clearly stated that he will not run as a third-party candidate. Right now, his priorities are serving the residents in his Texas congressional district and winning

******

There is nothing wrong with the movement, people getting together. They have some interesting ideas out of the conventional mainstream - I think they picked the wrong guy. It will be interesting if the movement holds together.

It will be sad if the movement just dies - that'd mean it was all about Ron Paul and not about the principles, values and the rest.

I never supported him but if I had I'd be pissed. He knew all about the racists crap published in his newsletters and that was why he was so surprised at the support he gained from so many people that decided to believe in him.

I can get with some libertarian ideas and ideals (not all). One has to be cautious because libertarianism attracts some of the "beyond the fringe" like the KKK, white-power, gun nuts and surprisingly quite a few xenophobes.

Bush spoke to a boisterous crowd shortly after 7 a.m. EST. The ballroom erupted in cheers when someone shouted "Are there conservatives in the house?" When the president walked on stage, they clapped and chanted "Four more years! Four more years!"

******

Conservative doesn't mean what is used to mean.

The Three Co-Chairs of the DNC Delegate Credentials Board All Served Under Clinton

Interesting piece.

The history of the SCLM:

A joke too bad to print?

HOW SEN. JOHN McCAIN'S TASTELESS TWO-LINER ABOUT CHELSEA CLINTON AND JANET RENO WAS CENSORED OUT OF THE NATION'S LEADING NEWSPAPERS.

Memo Blasts State Dept. Iraq Effort
GOP

(GOP)Loyalist Says U.S. Brought 'Worst of America' to Iraq

In a confidential memo, a long-time Republican operative who has served in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad for the past year says the State Department's efforts in Iraq are so poorly managed they "would be considered willfully negligent if not criminal" if done in the private sector.

"We have brought to Iraq the worst of America -- our bureaucrats," writes Manuel Miranda in the memo, which was addressed to U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and cc'd to "ALCON" or "all concerned" at the State Department.

*****

A little report on the success of the “surge” from in country at a high level.

The “surge” has no sustainability (as I have always said) and the “surge” has not achieved any of the political goals defined as necessary by this WH. The surge is an abject failure. The Surge didn’t save Bush from his failed policies and mismanagement of Iraq from before the invasion.

Illegal and unwise invasion, illegal and unwise occupation and a waste of more brave troops to the surge that was only intended to buy time for Bunnypants.

From what I've read and makes sense is the Repugnicons are flagellating and foaming about the possibility of a Petraeus nomination in `12 regardless who sits in the Oval office at the time. Romney may feel he is the next insurgent but he has his baggage and detractors in the party as well. All he really has now and will only have in `12 is I am not John McCain. Thin gruel ast best.

Clinton may spurn debate over remark\

WASHINGTON -- Angered by an MSNBC correspondent's demeaning comment about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's daughter, aides to her presidential campaign said Friday that she might pull out of a debate planned by the cable network this month in Cleveland.

*****

Yet, HRC would unilaterally accept the FOX invitation for a debate?

Again, it is a matter of judgment and now principles.

A changing color scheme

All the polling this year suggests that a Democrat-to-be-named-later will handily defeat a similarly generic Republican in the popular vote. But -- as we learned in 2000 -- the electoral vote is what really counts.

This time, however, the changing electoral map strongly reinforces Democratic hopes.

*****

Hope springs eternal.

Hillary, Will You Renounce Your Ties to Monsanto?

Clinton Campaign Manager Calls It Quits\

Patti Solis Doyle announced that she is stepping down as the campaign manager for the presidential campaign of Sen. Hilary Clinton, D-N.Y., ABC News has learned that this afternoon.

In a note she sent to her staff, Solis Doyle announced that this week Maggie Williams, Clinton's chief of staff when she was first lady, "will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager." Solis Doyle said she would remain as a senior adviser to the campaign.

*****

Looks like there is trouble in the HRC camp.

Shuffling the HMS Billary Deck Chairs?

Put an older-school acolyte behind the wheel. THAT's the way FOWARD... Someone else stained by the foibles of the past...

Who knows...might just be crazy enough to work!

US may pause Iraq troop pull-out

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has said he favours a "pause" in troop reductions in Iraq after up to 30,000 US soldiers are sent home this summer.

*****

Good morning Viet Nam!

David,
A great analysis of the race, and some excellent, non ad hominem posts by your readers. I have been saying all along that this race resembles 1976 for the Republicans and 1988 for the Democrats. For Republicans to win, they have to run to the right. For Democrats to win, they have to run to the center.

Isn't it ironic that our First Black President, who was elected with 90+ percent of the African-American vote, is about to be denied his third term by the same group that had him elected in the first place?
Tom

I am looking for a reference or list of the "conservative" accomplishments of the WH over the last two terms?

Smaller Gov.?

Abortion?

Tax cuts for millionaires - check

Humble foreign policy?

Nation building?

Gays?

Guns?

I just don't get it, how can the GOPhers still pretend to be conservative?

"For Democrats to win, they have to run to the center."

How do you figure?

I think the dem's only need a pulse to win.

Bush came out at CPAC and declared "Cheney is the best VP in history" - I guess his dad just doesn't measure up?

Capt,

Bush has repeatedly stated that he doesn't turn to his "daddy" for advise...he listens to his "Heavenly Father" (auditory hallucinations? they've got meds for that, now) instead.

Why, if he'd listened to the sage advice from Poppy, he'd never have launched the illegal and immoral invasion and occupation of Iraq.

President George H.W. Bush defended his administration's decision eloquently, saying that to have gone on to Baghdad would have left us in charge of desperately unhappy Arabs who would hate having us around. Brent Scowcroft, his national security adviser, wrote on the eve of the second war against Saddam that to invade Iraq could turn the Middle East into a "cauldron and thus destroy the war on terror."

Scowcroft and father Bush's vision is coming to pass. The Cheney dream is bankrupt — especially now that the war in Iraq has pulled so many resources out of Afghanistan that it looks as if we could lose there too. At best we are certainly not winning.

...and that is from LAST February. We are finally, definitely, turning the corner, now! Right?...hello...hello?

Good morning Vietnam, indeed!

Or - Groundhogs day?

Some people must have forgotten that every escalation in Vietnam worked too.

UGH!

Or - Groundhogs day?

Flawed analogy. At least Bill Murray learned from his mistakes.

The Magic of Groundhog Day

“Paul Hannam has written an insightful book that can help us all get out of our own ruts and live more productive and joyful lives. The Magic of Groundhog Day is enjoyable entertainment and a remarkable self-help guide as well.”

Thom Hartmann

*****

Eye’s,

Of course - you are right. Check out this book. Looks interesting.

Or maybe it is a good analogy? I found it interesting that, according to Wikipedia, even today in Iraq Groundhog Day is military slang for "any day of a tour of duty in Iraq". Sadly, their day is more tragic than comedic.

Captain,
Empirical evidence.

Liberal George McGovern loses in 1972, but Jimmy Carter (running as a centrist Democrat governor) wins four years later.

Liberal Michael Dukakis loses, but the Democrats nominate DLC hero Bill Clinton four years later.

Republican "centrists" who had their heads handed to them either in primaries or general elections:
Gerald Ford
George H W Bush
Bob Dole
John McCain in 2000

Best,
Tom Cantu

Tom,

If history were an accurate guide predicting the future would be a no-brainer.

I think times are a changing. The future will reflect some of the past colors but . . .

Lucky for us things do change - it keeps it interesting.

Thanks